Will Brayan Bello’s Newest Tweak Hold Up Vs. Yankees?

A pitcher’s arsenal must be ever-evolving to survive in the MLB. Even those who are already dominant make tweaks to stay one step ahead of hitters. Towards the end of last season, Garrett Crochet added a sinker to throw to lefties. He likely could get by just fine without it, but having another tool in the toolbox never hurts.

Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello is no exception to that rule. While Bello hasn’t had the same success as someone like Crochet, he’s still constantly tinkering with his pitches to find the optimal combination.

This season, his changeup has eluded him. The slow ball was his best pitch when he broke onto the scene. Now, he’s throwing it a little bit harder, and the results haven’t been there. The swinging strike rate is down to 11.5% from a career high of 22.5% in 2022. The batting average against it is over .300.

Due to these poor results, the righty has backed off the changeup in favor of sweepers and four-seam fastballs. In his last outing, Bello did something new. Against lefties, he threw just seven changeups compared to 21 sweepers. It worked for him, with 17 of 21 pitches returning strikes.

Bello takes the ball against the New York Yankees on Sunday. With dangerous lefties such as Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm in the lineup, will Bello’s new strategy continue to bring him success?

I wouldn’t be so sure. Bello has played with breaking balls before, featuring multiple versions in 2024. The current version is similar to one he threw for a spell last season, sweeping more to the gloveside.

The big horizontal sweeper doesn’t typically play against opposite-handed hitters. The movement profile brings it right into the bat path for some lefties who like the ball down in the zone. I took a look at Bello’s 2024 sweepers that most closely resemble the current pitch and found that the rule applies to him as well.

Lefties hit .308 against Bello’s sweepers with more than 10 inches of vertical movement. They’re hitting just .143 this season, but I wouldn’t expect that to stick. If the righty continues to throw sweepers at a high clip, lefties will start hunting them.

A reliable pitch to use against lefties, such as a changeup or cutter, would go a long way for Bello, who is still on the hunt for the optimal arsenal.