Mixed messages and fine margins

Morning all.

A quick Saturday round-up for you. Mikel Arteta was in slightly tetchy form in his press conference yesterday, and to be honest, I kind of understand that. Whatever else you can say about him, I don’t think you could even begin to question his desire to win and to achieve things at this club – so going out of the Champions League this week will have hurt him.

If we, as fans, were emotionally impacted – so too the players, by the way – then I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest the same is true of the manager. What I find interesting about this though is that generally speaking Arteta is a very good communicator. His press conferences aren’t particularly exciting, but he’s clear with his messaging and plays a lot of stuff with a straight bat so as not to cause headlines or ripples.

You don’t need to be an expert in reading between the lines to understand what he’s saying. Sometimes his words are about sending a message to his players; sometimes it’s about the fans; sometimes – as I think we saw this week – there were some messages to those above him when it comes to the thorny issue of squad building.

In his post-game presser, he made reference to ‘the players we have’. You could suggest he’s referencing injuries, it’s also possible he’s talking about the lack of an addition in the January market, something he made pretty clear he wanted after the injuries to Saka and Jesus.

January 24th: “My opinion is clear, we lost two very, very important players, Bukayo Saka and Gabi Jesus. So we lack goals, we lack people, we lack options in the front line, it is clear.”

January 17th: “We have lost two massive players for us in the front line and we need some support.”

There are lots of other examples. Yesterday, asked if he thought a 25 goal-a-season striker might be the thing to help Arsenal achieve a Premier League title, he said:

I have to make it more clear? In January it was clear or not? I told you, because you [the reporter who asked the question] were in the room I think many times, I made a very clear statement, and the statement continues the same. I want the best team, the best players. If we have three goalscorers over 25, bring them in, we’re going to be a much better team, yes.

That’s pretty unequivocal to me. But earlier he was asked if stood over comments he made after Wednesday in which he said Arsenal were the best team in the Champions League this season, and said:

100%. I’m watching the impact, I’m watching all the stats because they were the best stats and the best goal difference [I think he means xG here] in the semi-final, so it’s very clear. But it’s not about the winning probability or what you’ve merited, it’s actually making it happen and making it count. When you look at the important stats that normally give you the best platform to win football matches, it’s crystal clear who was better.

Maybe this is him sending a message to his players because they have to play three more games that they probably little appetite for, but I disagree. Arsenal did well against PSG but didn’t score. If you want to put that down to variance, bad luck, a great goalkeeper, poor finishing, you can find all kinds of ways to discuss it, but even if our xG was 500 and we only scored once, it doesn’t really matter because in the end it’s only the G part that counts. PSG did that better than we did over the course of two games.

But within that answer there’s a contradiction when he says – “But it’s not about the winning probability or what you’ve merited, it’s actually making it happen and making it count.”

Which is exactly it. Later, when asked about whether Arsenal have experienced bad luck this season, he said:

There are many factors we need to judge and go our way in that decision. In that clinical moment, the ball goes to the post, out, in, that’s the fine margins. So I think what we have to try to do is to amplify the margins. The bigger the margins are, even if those things happen, then it will be very difficult for the opposition.

Fine margins. Going back to the xG, is creating 5 statistically and scoring 1 in reality a fine margin, or quite a big margin? However you want to interpret that stat, or maybe even dismiss it entirely, to me it clearly illustrates the need for improvement. If this game was a one off, perhaps it’s a different discussion, but what this team has missed this season – for all kinds of reasons we don’t have to go into this morning – is the ability to put the ball in the back of the net with greater frequency. We have the best defensive record in the Premier League (and the second best in the CL group stage, btw) but the Champions have scored 17 goals more than us. Not really a fine margin over the course of the season.

Anyway, as I said above, I think Arteta will be sore at how this season has panned out, ultimately because he is the one who will take responsibility for it. I don’t think he’ll shirk that one bit, but in the emotion of a painful exit over the course of two games he clearly felt we could get more from, it’s not really a surprise his messages are a bit mixed.

Right, I’m gonna leave it there. Golf yesterday was very good, a lovely day and a good score too – only the second time I’ve ever broken 80. Chipped in for a par on 18 to shoot 79. Fine margins

Have a lovely Saturday folks.

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