PSG vs Aston Villa: Lambs to the Slaughter?

Saturday’s 2-1 victory over Nottingham Forest closed out a satisfying and impressive week for Villa, with Emery’s side having also dispatched Brighton after progressing to the semifinals of the FA Cup by easing past Preston NE. One week, three matches, three victories, with the last being the hardest of the lot.

As a result, Villa’s teetering bid to return to the Champions League got a significant boost as no one really expects us to lift that trophy and automatically return.

But, there is a chance, however slim, of being crowned Champions of Europe. Unfortunately, what looks to be the biggest obstacle to that is PSG. They’ve looked the most dangerous side so far even if they did make hard work of the league phase. Of interest, though, is that the test Villa faced against Forest was probably good practice for the challenge PSG will present: a fast, athletic and quick-striking side who, on their day, are lethal up front and quite capable of wresting control over any match.

The key to Forest’s impressive and surprising season has been simple: defend well and counter. So they’re not really worried about possession, per se. They want to press high at times, dropping everyone else back, which leaves a little room between the lines, but they reform deeper quickly to contest the middle and always look for space to get in behind. They can press and battle all over the pitch, contesting those central areas and winning the ball back readily to spring forward. But the recipe is straightforward: score first and capitalize on that with their speed and athleticism once you have to chase.

It’s nothing new, it’s just being executed very well and consistently. Villa simply turned it round on the day, got two quick early goals and just about managed to ride out the inevitable storm that followed. And for all their exploits, Forest are now only six points ahead of Villa having had far fewer games to play.

So before we square off Wednesday night, it’s not a bad time to look around and appreciate what Emery’s side have accomplished so far. Were it not for the post-European dips, Villa would probably be sat in the top four again, which is impressive, given the load and increasing quality of the pack. A number of very good managers are working small wonders at the ‘lesser’ clubs. Recruitment has been good, tactics and execution have improved broadly. It’s always been said, but I don’t know that it’s ever been more true: There are no easy games. Apart from the bottom three, and that only shows how the gap is growing. Let’s call it 32 tough matches and six banana peels.

It’s been good, could’ve been a little better, and we’ve obviously won nothing at this point. Palace will be tough.

But back to PSG. Over two legs, this looks to be a very tall order, and my guess is that most of us expect our European adventure to end here. And once you’ve found yourself among the eight best teams in Europe, there’s no shame in that. It might well be best for the league run-in, as well.

What no one wants, of course, is a rout. If you’re going to go out, at least make a good showing of it. And doing that is basically the conceivable path through the tie. If we’re going to lose in Paris, keep it close. Better yet, play for a draw and get it. And yes, you could always go out and win. But PSG are exactly the sort of side against which we don’t match up well.

Now that we’ve seen a lot more tweaks from Emery and different approaches and personnel groupings, there’s not much that’s off the table. I obviously won’t have put in the 20+ hours of PSG matches that Emery will, never mind the rest of the staff. And Marco Asensio will probably be a huge asset in understanding individual strengths and weaknesses and the mentality of the squad. He’ll know as well as anyone what he’d be told if he were lining up against Villa.

Given PSG’s attacking prowess, I’d be very tempted to go with Onana and Kamara as the anchors in front of Disasi on the right with Konsa and Mings as per. I say Ty because I think that extra bit of pace could be invaluable. Torres obviously is better with the ball, but pace, aerial quality, and a little more overall strength…? I’m assuming it will be Digne on the left since he was given a rest. This means Youri could play further up as we’ve seen (but not lately). While I’m not a huge fan of his defending, it could be that Cash gets the call for his pace. But if Villa are going to be cagey and defensive, you’d be less worried about tracking back than being stout.

Returning to Asensio, I’m guessing he hasn’t been in Enrique’s plans as he doesn’t fit the physical profile, being more suited to Emery’s patient possession. And I’d assume that his start against Forest means he’s not in line to start Wednesday. Likewise, I’m wondering whether Ollie’s start means Rashford gets the nod. But I could easily see both playing with Rashford returning wide left.

Now that Malen has found his footing, I’m really wishing he’d been included in the squad as it’s the right that bothers me most. Obviously Rogers comes to mind, though it does seem to reduce his influence (and he still came up with two assists against Brighton). That gives us pace and size down both flanks, and overall I’d feel better with Rogers in front of Disasi than Bailey in front of Cash.

We’ve all seen the talk about Ollie and probably have our own questions. And it’s a bit tricky for Emery trying to balance loyalty to the players who fought to get them into the CL versus the investment and impact in the Rashford-Asensio moves. Is Ollie short on confidence? Has he downed tools, as some suggest? Is he just a bit surprised or hurt and that’s gotten him to doubt himself? Could be anything, but I don’t think he’d consciously let himself or the side down. Doesn’t match what we’ve seen from him over all these years, and certainly wouldn’t help him get a summer move if he ends up wanting one.

So for me, it’s Ollie up front in a 4-2-3-1. But I can easily see Emery employing the more familiar 4-4-2, maybe with McGinn in right midfield for a bit of bite and Rogers coming back into the middle. I just worry that SJM doesn’t have the required pace and quality/composure on the ball under a lot of aggressive pressing and dueling.

And maybe the wildcard is that Villa play as much through the middle as any team in the PL besides Chelsea. Does that play into PSG’s hands? Does Emery look to surprise them by changing it up? Can Villa really hold up if they are sitting deeper? Can we handle the pressing and duels, regardless? The last one is my biggest concern, but I’m also mindful that we get wobbly under sustained attacking pressure. Funnily enough, my nightmare scenario is that we go long, Rashford gets an early goal, and we have to endure the agony of trying to see that out.

Anyway, that’s where I’m at: damage limitation with enough firepower to spring a surprise. I’m sure PSG will come out all guns blazing looking to kill off the tie in Paris and maybe even in the first half. I’m going to be a bundle of nerves because of that more so than the opportunity to progress. But we’re here, and hopefully we put up a good fight. As usual, I’m always ready to be pleasantly surprised, but this one I’m going to approach realistically.

Over to you.