How Jackson Merrill’s Padres Deal Could Impact Red Sox Soon

By signing their future franchise superstar outfielder to a long-term contract extension Wednesday, the San Diego Padres might have just laid the groundwork for the Red Sox.

The Padres and outfielder Jackson Merrill came to terms on a massive nine-year, $135 million contract extension, according to multiple reports. FanSided’s Robert Murray, the first to report the news, revealed the deal could max at $204 million based on incentives and escalators while also carrying a $30 million option for a 10th season that could become a player option by the deal’s end.

It’s a great deal of business for San Diego. Merrill, who turns 22 later this month, is already one of the best young players in baseball. He made his big league debut in 2024 and never looked back. Merrill played in 156 games for the Padres, hitting .292 with 24 home runs and 90 RBIs and would have won the National League Rookie of the Year if it weren’t for Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes.

Surely, the Red Sox would like to see their top prospect, Roman Anthony, follow a similar career path. While Anthony hasn’t made his major league debut yet, he’s knocking on the door. In fact, he might force the organization’s hand sooner than expected. Anthony has three hits in Triple-A Worcester’s first three games — two home runs and a triple — and has been squaring up everything. If Ceddanne Rafaela doesn’t start hitting, Anthony could be in Boston before the flowers bloom.

It’s interesting to note that Anthony is basically at the same point in his career that Merrill was in his progression when he made the big leagues. Merrill made the jump after 200 minor league games; Anthony, meanwhile, has 248 games under his belt with just a little more than 1,100 plate appearances (Merrill had 881).

	PAs	Avg.	HR	RBI	OPS	SB
Merrill	881	.295	21	114	.804	31
Anthony	1,129	.284	34	145	.878	38

At this point, the only reason Anthony — the consensus No. 1 position player prospect in baseball — is still in the minors is because of a logjam in front of him. If he keeps it up, the Red Sox might have a difficult but necessary decision to make about their current roster.

Once that happens, if all goes according to plan, the Red Sox should keep the Merrill deal in the back of their mind. More and more players seem willing to sign those early-career contract extensions — some before they even make their big league debut — and using the Merrill contract as a framework for a potential deal with Anthony makes plenty of sense.

The Red Sox have displayed a willingness to do just that in recent seasons. They just handed Garrett Crochet a massive extension after one start in a Boston uniform (with one season of starting experience under his belt), and they were willing to extend Rafaela after a brief stint in the bigs. An extension for Kristian Campbell seems like a foregone conclusion, too.

Anthony is probably better at this point in his career than Merrill was at a similar juncture. But we know Merrill can do it at the highest level, a his numbers with San Diego are better than what he did in the minors. In that regard, Anthony might not be in a rush to sign.

It’s certainly worth trying, though. The Merrill deal does a good job of allowing the Padres to lock in a star talent for a long time, while also giving Merrill the chance to get even more money for high performance. The Red Sox themselves know what kind of money it costs to sign free agents on the market, too. They were open to committing half a billion to Juan Soto, they’re giving Alex Bregman $40 million per season, and they’ve probably got an eye on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s negotiations with the Blue Jays.

One way to avoid that, as the Padres have done here, is to give a little extra up front to save in a big way on the back end.