When will we go up / win the league (6 replies)
For something to do on the train after the match and when I got home I decided to work out the probability of us going up or winning the league on each day.
The earliest we can go up in on 8 April against Peterborough if:
a) we get 9 points in the next three games and Wrexham get 2 or less points in their next OR Wycombe get 5 or less points in their next three; or
b) we get 7 points in the next three games and Wrexham lose both their next two matches OR Wycombe get 3 or less in their next three matches.
Using the bookies' odd to work out the probabilities of those it's about a 22% chance we go up that day, but only a 3% chance we win the league.
After that it gets a lot more complicated but I've tried putting in a graph below that shows the chance of us going up / winning the championship by match (or date if we don't play that day).
The most likely day we get promoted is Crawley at Home (45% chance) and the same for winning the league (43%).
By the time we play Mansfield, last home game, it is almost certain we're already up because Wrexham and Wycombe only have one game left at that point, while we have three. There's less than a 1% chance we haven't won the league by the end of the Mansfield game.
There's about a 20% chance we get promoted on a day when we don't play and about a 10% chance we win the league on a day we don't play, which always feel a bit of an anti-climax.
The earliest we can go up in on 8 April against Peterborough if:
a) we get 9 points in the next three games and Wrexham get 2 or less points in their next OR Wycombe get 5 or less points in their next three; or
b) we get 7 points in the next three games and Wrexham lose both their next two matches OR Wycombe get 3 or less in their next three matches.
Using the bookies' odd to work out the probabilities of those it's about a 22% chance we go up that day, but only a 3% chance we win the league.
After that it gets a lot more complicated but I've tried putting in a graph below that shows the chance of us going up / winning the championship by match (or date if we don't play that day).
The most likely day we get promoted is Crawley at Home (45% chance) and the same for winning the league (43%).
By the time we play Mansfield, last home game, it is almost certain we're already up because Wrexham and Wycombe only have one game left at that point, while we have three. There's less than a 1% chance we haven't won the league by the end of the Mansfield game.
There's about a 20% chance we get promoted on a day when we don't play and about a 10% chance we win the league on a day we don't play, which always feel a bit of an anti-climax.