Noel Hunt, Expectations And Where Reading Are Right Now
Sim takes stock of how well Reading, and manager Noel Hunt, are doing in relation to expectations.
It’s funny how quickly your outlook changes in football.
At 5pm on March 1, Reading had just come from behind to win at Wigan Athletic, igniting plausible-looking playoff prospects. A week later, dropping points (but at least still going unbeaten) in consecutive games against relegation-battling Exeter City and Crawley Town had made the Royals’ chances of finishing in the top six seem increasingly remote.
It was less the fact that Reading had failed to win those games. Even now, we’re still ‘only’ five points off the top six and have a game in hand. Rather, the performances - particularly in the second half - were those of a side not at the level of sustaining a serious playoff bid.
Whatever way you look at it, it’s been a frustrating week. Personally, even before the Exeter game I wasn’t all that sold on the idea of Reading finishing in the playoffs. (On the pitch this side didn’t look ready to go up, off the pitch there’s a huge amount of rebuilding to do, and losing in the semi-finals/finals would have been heartbreaking anyway.) I’m just as disappointed as everyone else though.
Naturally, fans’ focus has been turning onto Noel Hunt. He’s come in for plenty of flak after the last two games and not unfairly: Reading simply weren’t good enough against Exeter or Crawley and can’t complain about drawing either match.
It was a similar story both times. The Royals had a positive first half (playing well against Exeter/taking the lead against Crawley) and stagnated badly in the second, Hunt wasn’t able to change the flow with some substitutions that generally made sense in theory but didn’t work in practice, and at full-time you were even a bit relieved that Reading had managed to see out a point at all.
The bottom line is that the last two performances and results have been below standards. But the bottomer line (is that a thing? Let’s pretend it is) is that those standards are for a club properly prepared to mount and sustain a playoff push. Reading are not that club.
While there’s plenty of time for this to change in the coming months, there’s a good chance we’ll sum up Reading’s 2024/25 by simply using the term ‘over-performance’. Because of the whole host of factors behind the scenes that a) I won’t bore you with, b) are difficult to remember in their entirety, c) would take too long to write out in full, Reading should never have been in serious contention for the playoffs this season.
However, because of some truly excellent work by staff and players past and present, we’ve exceeded expectations. And then some. How we view this season from now on has to be kept in that context.
It’s worth remembering that, when Hunt was appointed manager in early December, the serious concern among many fans (myself included) was that Ruben Selles’ exit and the likely impending loss of first-team players would send Reading hurtling down the table. Avoiding relegation was the only serious objective on the pitch.
If you’d said then that Reading would remain playoff contenders until at least early March - 22 points clear of the relegation places - you’d have had not only your hand snapped off, but also your lower arm, elbow, upper arm and shoulder.
It’s bitterly disappointing to see Reading’s playoff bid (however strong it ever was) slip away in front of your eyes. Of course it is. But that doesn’t mean Hunt is doing a bad job in the bigger picture. Rather, results-wise he’s absolutely exceeding the expectations set at the time of his arrival, albeit not to a massive degree.
I entirely get the frustrations of some fans after the last two games, but an awful lot of that frustration comes from Reading falling short of inflated expectations, which have remained high for longer than we would have anticipated. Really,Hunt is a victim of his own success.
Performance-wise, it feels like Reading are running on fumes at the moment and have been for some time.
Selles had this side firing on all cylinders in October and November, with Reading roaring from mid-table into the playoffs. But with the Royals losing key components in recent months and struggling to replace them, and lacking the option to take a break and refuel, Hunt’s focus has had to be on getting Reading over the line by whatever means necessary.
It’s right to point out that Reading aren’t as good as they were overall earlier in the season, but it’s unfair to put that primarily on Hunt. An already small and inexperienced squad has been dealt blow after blow: Ben Elliott has been missing for almost all of Hunt’s time in the dugout, Sam Smith was sold at the end of January, Amadou Mbengue’s missed half a dozen games and will be out for another six weeks, while Michael Craig is out for the season.
Absences have leave Hunt especially light on quality in forward positions. Without Smith, or for that matter Femi Azeez - a key source of goals and creativity last season - Reading are primarily working with inexperienced, inconsistent talent for the future rather than dependable performers in the here and now.
Jayden Wareham, Adrian Akande, Mamadi Camara and others have ability but aren’t experienced League One players. Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan, Chem Campbell and veteran Billy Bodin are more ready, but they’re not at the level of Smith and Azeez. Any team would struggle for goals and creativity when it’s missing consistent quality.
As for those left, they’re shattered. 17-year-old Andre Garcia is surely at risk of burnout due to constantly playing in his first season of senior football, while Reading haven’t (before the arrival of Tom Carroll anyway) been able to rest any of the midfield trio. Charlie Savage has only been subbed off four times in Hunt’s 18 League One matches, while Harvey Knibbs and Lewis Wing have had to play every single minute.
Many teams would have given their first team a rest in the third round of the FA Cup. But with Reading having fixtures at senior, under-21 and under-18 level over that weekend (January 11), Hunt had to put out a full-strength side against Burnley. And there was 30 minutes of extra time to play too.
With Reading so desperately short on personnel and energy, is it really any surprise that performances suffer? That Reading’s levels drop off in the second half? That the attack has been so blunt? And it certainly has - the Royals have gone from 1.7 goals scored per game under Selles this season to 1.1 under Hunt.
I don’t want to absolve Hunt of blame entirely. At the end of the day it’s on him to come up with answers to these problems and there are other things he could have done in recent weeks.
Kelvin Abrefa probably should have started a game or two to reduce the workload on Garcia, I’d have used Tyler Sackey a bit to inject some energy and new ideas into the midfield, and perhaps another attack configuration (Jayden Wareham and Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan up top together in a pairing maybe?) would have helped. Then again, they’re ideas, not obvious changes that have to be made. This is an art, not a science.
What’s less subjective is how good a job Hunt’s done recently defensively. Reading leaked goals in January, conceding eight times against Stockport County (three), Leyton Orient (two) and Burton Albion (three), but have been rock-solid since. In the last eight matches, the Royals have let in just four goals, racking up as many clean sheets, and as a result have gone unbeaten.
Hunt is much more prepared than Selles was to be pragmatic, to focus on grinding out clean sheets and draws. That’s meant edging away from Selles’ high-pressing, progressive style, and an increased use of the long ball rather than playing through the lines - which, naturally, has exacerbated some fans’ frustrations.
That pragmatism has been vital for Reading picking up points recently - 14 in eight games is nothing to be sniffed at. In fact it’s the sixth-best record in the division. For context, Reading managed 11 points in Hunt’s first 10 games, which works out to 17th in that period from early December to the end of January.
At this stage however it’s difficult to say with certainty whether that comes primarily from Hunt’s own philosophy or from Reading’s current circumstances. How pragmatic would a Noel Hunt team be after a summer of rest, pre-season training and recruitment? I really don’t know, and I wouldn’t be that surprised if he didn’t either.
Where do we go from here then?
Well, barring anything drastically bad off the pitch (something that rhymes with doints peduction perhaps), Reading will stay up easily, completing Hunt’s primary objective. It’s also probably a safe bet at this stage that the Royals will finish in the top half, perhaps around 10th.
Hunt shouldn’t let things drift too much though. All things being well, Reading will benefit from the return of Elliott before too long, as well as a rest for almost all of the squad during the late March international break. We haven’t had a fortnight off since mid-November (actually more like 10 days as we had a midweek cup game in there against Newport County, but ‘fortnight’ sounds neater so I’ll say that instead).
And if we’re really lucky, we’ll return from that international break to new ownership. As Tim Dellor reported after the Crawley game, a takeover is all but done bar some blocking from Rob Couhig, which Reading will try to remove by taking the matter to court on March 21.
Would Robert Platek want to keep Hunt in post next season? It’s impossible at this stage to know the prospective owner’s thinking, but a strong end to the season wouldn’t do Hunt’s chances any harm at all. If Reading can get players back from injury and refresh those currently being overplayed, hopefully Hunt can capitalise.