Match Preview: Rotherham United v Barnsley

Date: 22nd February 2025
Kick-Off: 12:30 PM
Venue: AESSEAL NEW YORK STADIUM

League Positions:
Rotherham United: 14th (38 points)
Barnsley: 11th (43 points)

Match Overview

A South Yorkshire derby with plenty at stake, as Rotherham United welcome Barnsley to the AESSEAL New York Stadium for this crucial League One encounter. With Barnsley struggling to find consistency and Rotherham keen to turn their fortunes around, both sides will be eager to claim the bragging rights. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, February 22, 2025, at 12:30 PM.

This fixture carries added significance given Rotherham’s long winless run against Barnsley, stretching back to October 1982. The visitors, despite their struggles, have proven to be a formidable opponent in this matchup, with the Millers eager to finally break the cycle of defeats.

Recent Form & Analysis

Rotherham United: Struggles to Maintain Momentum

Rotherham looked to have turned a corner in January, but a four-game winless run this month has virtually ended any hopes of pushing for the play-offs. They remain a massive 15 points adrift of sixth place and must now focus on finishing the season strongly. The Millers have, however, been impressive at home, winning three of their last four matches at the AESSEAL New York Stadium.

Their biggest struggles have come in attack, where they have been wasteful in front of goal. They average just 1.13 goals per game, highlighting their inefficiency in the final third. Defensively, they have been inconsistent, showing resilience in some games but conceding an average of 1.19 goals per game.

Tactically, Steve Evans’ side relies heavily on set-pieces, which are a key strength, but they have significant weaknesses when defending against pace and skilful attackers. Their vulnerability to counter-attacks and crosses from the wings could be a major concern against Barnsley’s style of play.

• Last 5 Matches: W-L-D-L-L
• League Position: 14th
• Points Per Game (PPG): 1.23
• Goals Scored (Per Game): 1.13
• Goals Conceded (Per Game): 1.19
• Home Form: 1.80 PPG | 1.60 goals per game | 60% BTTS
• Key Trend: Rotherham have struggled defensively but remain more competitive at home.

Barnsley: A Season Unraveling

Barnsley's season is currently in the process of spiralling badly out of control, with a six-game run without victory leaving them 10 points behind the top six. Their last away victory came before the turn of the year, and they are still searching for their first away win of 2025.

Despite their struggles, Barnsley’s away record this season has been relatively strong, averaging 1.67 points per game on the road. They have looked more comfortable playing direct, counter-attacking football, but their inability to finish chances has cost them valuable points. Their xG (expected goals) per game stands at 1.52, suggesting they are creating opportunities but failing to convert at the necessary rate.

Another key issue for Barnsley has been defending leads. They have dropped points from winning positions multiple times this season, pointing to issues in game management. Their ability to counter-attack remains a major weapon, and with key players returning, they could pose a greater threat against Rotherham’s vulnerable defence.

• Last 5 Matches: L-L-L-L-L
• League Position: 11th
• Points Per Game (PPG): 1.39
• Goals Scored (Per Game): 1.39
• Goals Conceded (Per Game): 1.39
• Away Form: 1.67 PPG | 1.47 goals per game | 67% BTTS
• Key Trend: Poor run of form but still strong on the road, where they have picked up most of their points.

Head-to-Head

• Recent Meetings:
  • Rotherham Wins: 0
  • Barnsley Wins: 5
  • Draws: 0
• Goals Scored:
  • Rotherham: 1
  • Barnsley: 10

Barnsley have dominated this fixture in recent years, with Rotherham’s last victory over their local rivals dating back to 1982. The last meeting saw Barnsley win 2-0 at Oakwell in November, courtesy of goals from Jon Russell and Stephen Humphrys.

Manager Insights

Steve Evans (Rotherham United Manager)

• On team selection: “Liam Kelly is touch-and-go with a calf issue, while Cameron Humphreys has had a virus but should recover in time.”
• On the occasion: “We know the history. It’s been too long since Rotherham beat Barnsley, and that adds to the motivation for the lads.”
• On expectations: “They’ve got good players coming back and we’ll have to be at our best to take something from the game.”
• On squad depth: “We have attacking options we’ve lacked for some time, which gives us a real chance.”

Darrell Clarke (Barnsley Head Coach)

• On pressure from fans: “I accept the frustrations from supporters. We haven’t been at our best, and I take full responsibility.”
• On squad updates: “Connell, Roberts, and Phillips are back in contention, while Max Watters should be ready for Tuesday.”
• On breaking the losing streak: “We have to focus on our strengths and take our chances. We need to find a way to grind out a result.”
• On Barnsley’s strengths: “We’ve had a tough run, but we know we have the ability to turn things around.”

Tactical Battle & Key Players to Watch

Rotherham United:

• Jordan Hugill (Forward): Offers a physical presence and will be pivotal in leading the attack.
• Cameron Humphreys (Defender): If fit, he will be crucial in stabilising Rotherham’s backline.

Barnsley:

• Jon Russell (Midfielder): Scored in the reverse fixture and will be key in breaking through Rotherham’s defence.
• Luca Connell (Midfielder): Returns from injury and could provide stability in midfield.

Predictions & Betting Odds

• BTTS Probability: 64%
• First Team to Score: Barnsley (55%)
• Projected Scoreline: Rotherham United 1-2 Barnsley

Odds

• Rotherham United Win: 2.87
• Draw: 3.28
• Barnsley Win: 2.67

Final Analysis & Prediction

This derby match will be fueled by history and local pride. Barnsley, despite their recent struggles, remain a dangerous side on the road, with a strong away record. Rotherham, meanwhile, have been inconsistent, particularly in defense, but have performed better at home.

Given Barnsley’s dominance in the fixture and Rotherham’s defensive vulnerabilities, the visitors are slightly favored. However, derby matches can often be unpredictable, and with both teams needing a result, expect a closely fought battle.

Prediction: Rotherham United 1-2 Barnsley