Swanson: What to expect from UCLA football in Year 1? Not much

LOS ANGELES — UCLA might legitimately be the nobody-believed-in-us team that other teams always claim to be.

From college football pubs to pods, there’s just scant belief in a Bruins football program that on Wednesday opened Week 1 of training camp ahead of Year 1 in the Big Ten, in Year 1 under DeShaun Foster, who is in Year 1 as a head coach.

Athlon Sports ranked him No. 18 of 18 coaches in the conference: “Foster has zero head coaching experience and is taking over this program at a challenging time.”

And podcasters are out here rating the Bruins 18th in the conference, behind traditional football powers such as … Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers. “New HC. New League. New faces on the roster,” opined JeffreyTheGreek. “No gimme on the entire schedule.”

Others are a little more optimistic, if you could call it that: BetMGM’s oddsmakers’ predict that UCLA is the 11th-most likely Big Ten champ – pegged to win a whole 4.5 games this season. ESPN’s Football Power Index says the Bruins are the ninth-best team in the Big Ten – and that they’ll finish 5-7 and won’t be eligible for a bowl for the first time since 2020. So, yeah.

The polite thing would be to say we don’t know what to expect from UCLA this season. The truer thing would be to say that we expect the Bruins to be bad.

To be a team that can, in fact, pit itself against the world and have it not be merely a motivational ploy.

To be The Gutty Little Bruins That Could, to they-think-they-can-they-think-they-can all the way up that B1G hill to Told You So Station.

Let’s see them do it; it would be a good story to read your kids at night.

But until then, the prognosticators have a point: By some estimates, UCLA will face the fourth-hardest schedule in college football, based on opponents’ 92 victories last season.

The Bruins will go up against eight teams that had winning records in 2023, including five that won nine or more games – and they’ll have to endure maybe the most grueling three-game gauntlet in the country this season, according to ESPN’s post-spring Top 25: At No. 14 LSU on Sept. 21, home against No. 4 Oregon on Sept. 28, and then at No. 12 Penn State on Oct. 5, all in the midst of six consecutive weeks without a bye.

There will be no dipping his toes or just getting his feet wet for Foster, this is DeShaun diving right into the deep end.

He’s replacing Chip Kelly, the unpopular coach who bolted abruptly in February to be Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, but under whom the Bruins finished the past three seasons ranked No. 18 or better.

They’re also replacing defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who bolted too – for USC – after one successful season in Westwood, where he turned UCLA’s middling defense into one of the best in the nation, 10th-stingiest in total defense.

And they’re replacing defensive talent that moved on to the NFL, including Laiatu Latu, who was drafted No. 15 overall to the Indianapolis Colts, along with Darius Muasau (New York Giants), Gabriel Murphy (Minnesota Vikings) and Grayson Murphy (Miami Dolphins).

But it’s not been all subtraction; the Bruins also added Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator, hoping his NFL passing concepts will equip quarterback Ethan Garbers (1,136 passing yards, 11 touchdowns in 2023) to succeed.

Around that there was actually some positive buzz. Athlon ranked his hiring as the 15th-best assistant pickup, recognizing what it could mean to bring back the man who recently guided the Kansas City Chiefs’ prolific offenses to two Super Bowl championships.

“A big-time splash,” the publication called it – though that turned out to be just a ripple compared with the avalanche of attention paid to Foster’s Big Ten media day freeze.

“We’re in L.A.” pic.twitter.com/LJ4VlSBm4m

— Mirjam Swanson (@MirjamSwanson) July 31, 2024

After the awkward pause heard ’round the world, Foster did his best to make light of it Wednesday when the 44-year-old showed up to UCLA’s first official fall practice looking like he could still suit up and wearing a T-shirt that read: “We’re in L.A.,” a callback to his joke that fell famously flat July 24 inside Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

“I’m sure you guys don’t know too much about UCLA, our football program, but we’re in L.A.,” Foster said that day, as you’ve by now heard. “It’s us and USC. We, umm …”

As first impressions went, it wasn’t a good one – but it also wasn’t really Foster’s first impression, not for Bruins’ faithful who are the most tuned in.

His initial introduction was an earnest and emotional greeting February at the Pavilion Club on campus, where the former running backs coach wiped away tears and made a few hundred believers want to go Kool-Aid Man and crash through some walls when Foster promised: “I’m going to put all my passion into this. I’m here for these boys. I’ve been here for them. I’m going to get this team playing hard. My three pillars: Discipline, respect and enthusiasm. You’re gonna see it, you’re gonna feel it. We’re gonna get this Rose Bowl back to how it needs to be.”

And the former Bruin running back from Tustin said it then, too: “We’re in L.A. We are UCLA!”

There’s never a second chance to make a first impression, but UCLA fans would be remiss to let what happens this first season determine their final, possibly self-defeating verdict on Foster.

There are reasons so many are expecting so little from a squad this season. A stumble out of the gate feels all but scripted, so it’s what happens next, and how soon – or whether – we hear Foster’s players insisting, “Nobody believed in us!,” that will tell the story.