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Diving Into Potential Significance of Mets’ Early Rotation Projections

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Diving Into Potential Significance of Mets' Early Rotation Projections

Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

If the MLB lockout actually ends and we get to enjoy a mostly normal regular-season schedule, what are you most looking forward to watching as a New York Mets fan in 2022? My answer will probably be similar to what many others are thinking at this point in time: watching Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer lead the rotation.

By almost any meaningful metric, these two hurlers have been two of baseball’s best in recent years, and the Mets are fortunate enough to install them both in the same rotation. If they stay healthy — which all know is a valid question because Mets — they could do some special things together. And while there are still plenty of players who need a new home once the lockout ends and New York has more work to do on the roster, it’s interesting to see what some early projections are showing for the squad.

Let’s look at how FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections currently view New York’s rotation, and what some of those numbers could mean.

Atop The Current Projections

FanGraphs tabs 10 different Mets hurlers to make a start in 2022, with six tossing at least 50 innings: deGrom, Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill, and David Peterson. Amongst this group, all but Peterson are projected to throw 100-plus frames.

As we found out from last year, we can take those projections with a grain of salt. If we combine the rotation’s collective fWAR from these projections, the Mets come in at 18.9…which is the best in baseball. The next best rotation at the time of writing is the Philadelphia Phillies, who check in with a projected fWAR of 17.4.

There’s an expectation that New York will attempt to add another arm to the rotation once the lockout is over, but even with the health/performance questions for most of this group, it might be at least moderately surprising that they’re leading the current projections. At least, I was surprised.

This is what happens as a top-heavy rotation with regard to production. We saw this in 2018 and 2019 for the Mets, too. They finished among the top-five rotations in baseball each year (18.1 fWAR in ’18, 19.3 fWAR in ’19) because most of the production came from three pitchers: deGrom (duh), Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler. All three pitchers compiled at least 4.0 fWAR in each campaign.

As we turn toward 2022, the majority of the Mets’ current production is expected to come from deGrom (6.1) and Scherzer (5.1), which isn’t a surprise in the slightest. After that, Carrasco (2.5), Walker (1.8), and Megill (1.8) round out the majority of this projected production.

Those numbers for the Mets’ one-two punch got me wondering how often New York has watched at least two starting pitchers accumulate 5.0-plus fWAR in a single season.

Diving Into Potential Significance of Mets' Early Rotation Projections

Looking at Historical Context

There are 176 different instances in Mets history where a starting pitcher has qualified for the ERA title. Of those instances, 85 have registered at least 3.0 fWAR — Al Jackson was the first in 1962 (4.0 fWAR), and Marcus Stroman was the most recent hurler to accomplish the feat in 2021 (3.4 fWAR). There have been 25 different years in which New York has watched at least two hurlers accumulate 3.0-plus fWAR in the same year.

If we bump the benchmark to 4.0 fWAR, the total number shrinks to 54. There have been just 15 different years with at least two qualified Mets starters each reaching or surpassing that specific number. Unsurprisingly, the number of occurrences continued to shrink when the minimum parameter for fWAR rose to 5.0.

This has only happened 26 total times in franchise history by the following pitchers:

Of these instances, teammates have done it in the same season just three times:

  • 1974: Koosman (5.1) and Matlack (7.2)
  • 1988: Ojeda (5.1), Cone (5.3), Gooden (6.0)
  • 1990: Cone (5.0), Gooden (6.8), Viola (5.8)

If we continue using 5.0 fWAR as the magic number, it’s one Scherzer has reached eight times since 2013. DeGrom has only gotten there twice in his career (’18 and ’19) but just missed in 2021 despite throwing 92 innings (4.9 fWAR). He also just missed that mark in 2015 (4.9 fWAR).

Given their current levels of production, joining the above groups in 2022 will mostly depend on how many innings they each rack up.

Still Plenty of Questions Overall, Though

At this point, we’re all aware of the questions the Mets’ rotation will face heading into spring training (whenever that starts). DeGrom needs to stay healthy, Carrasco needs to get himself right again, and both Walker and Megill need to put full seasons together where they’re consistently effective. With all those considerations, it’s interesting that New York’s rotation is currently atop the depth-chart projections.

But, of course, that’s what happens when you go out and sign an elite starter in Scherzer.

This group has plenty to prove during the upcoming season, and while there are questions attached to each, there will hopefully be more arms joining the organization once general manager Billy Eppler can make more additions. Because let’s be honest, the Mets need as much depth as they can get in all areas of the roster.

But if some key contributors can stay healthy for the majority of the season, some special things are bound to happen in Queens.

Diving Into Potential Significance of Mets' Early Rotation Projections

The post Diving Into Potential Significance of Mets’ Early Rotation Projections first appeared on Metsmerized Online.

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