NHL Betting Guide for March 11th
We’re staring down 10 games on the Thursday night docket in the NHL. There are a couple of positions to exploit in the betting market and teams that have all the metrics working against them. We’re diving into a couple of North Division matchups to find value on the Thursday night betting card.
Here’s what we’re looking at!
Calgary Flames vs. Montreal Canadiens, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Flames -112, Canadiens -104
Spread: Flames -1.5 (+225), Canadiens +1.5 (-280)
Total: O5.5 -124
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Flames +5000|Canadiens +2000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Calgary Flames vs. Montreal Canadiens News, Analysis, and Picks
Thursday night will be the second night of a back-to-back for the Montreal Canadiens when they take on the Calgary Flames. Carey Price started last night which likely means that Jake Allen will be standing in the blue paint when puck drops tonight.
Montreal has had four back-to-back situations so far this season and they’ve fared well in the spot so far, going 2-1-1. What’s been most noteworthy is their five-on-five play as the Habs have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in every game.
The Canadiens have relied on their defensive structure in this situation. At five-on-five, the high-end of the sample is 28 shots, 26 scoring chances, and 11 high-danger chances, with the averages checking in at 20.8, 17.5, and 7.8, respectively. We would normally expect a jump in metrics on the second night of a back-to-back, but the Habs remain on par with their metrics and in terms of scoring chances, better than average.
It’s been a bumpy ride for the Flames this season, and that’s been particularly true over the last few weeks. Since February 22 Calgary is 3-3-2, being outplayed in five of those games. Offensive production has been limiting the Flames as Calgary has been held to an average of 20.4 scoring chances, and 8.8 high-danger opportunities, across all-strengths.
The silver lining is that the Flames have seen an increase in production metrics game-over-game over their last four. They’ve gone from 19 scoring chances to a peak of 39 last time out, and seven high-danger chances to 14 most recently.
However, we should consider that those high-points came against a young Sens that has been among the worst teams in the league, and three of the Flames’ last four games came against Ottawa. Moreover, the Flames production metrics in their most recent outing were the second-highest totals the Flames put up this season. It’s unlikely the Flames will be able to duplicate that production, particularly, against a stingier Habs team.
One thing the Flames have done well is limit opponents’ chances. Over the last four, they have limited opponents to an average of 8.3 chances from high-danger areas and 26.0 scoring chances. For the Flames to be competitive, those metrics will have to remain on the low-end of the spectrum.
This line shifted overnight as the Habs, who were once listed as +108 underdogs, have been bought down to -104. And rightfully so. The Flames have struggled this season and the Habs have been steady on the second night of a back-to-back. There remains value in backing the Habs in this one, as they remain short underdogs against a Flames team that is continually outplayed.
If you’re feeling exotic there is another wager to consider. With both teams relying on defensive structure and looking to nab at least a point, the 60-minute Tie prop at +310 is worth the investment.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Maple Leafs -190, Jets +160
Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+124), Jets +1.5 (-154)
Total: O6.5 -105
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Maple Leafs +700|Jets +2000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Winnipeg Jets News, Analysis, and Picks
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets couldn’t be further positioned on the home/road efficacy spectrum and that could spell trouble for the Jets tonight.
Toronto is among the best home-ice teams in the league. Through 14 home games, the Leafs have posted an expected goals-for below 50.0% just once. They have built up the second-highest expected goals-for percentage at 58.5% thanks to elite relative metrics. But there are several metrics which suggest that the Leafs are due for increased output on home ice.
The Leafs record on home-ice is 9-4-1 and they have posted a goals-for percentage of 57.8%, which is eighth in the league and below their expected goals-for percentage. Toronto’s shooting percentage at home is 10.8%, which is below their season average of 11.3%. That would imply that the Leafs are due for progression and should see increased output as the home team.
Winnipeg is on the polar opposite end of the spectrum. Winnipeg has posted a 7-4-0 record as the visitor this season, despite posting the second-worst expected goals-for percentage at 42.4%. The Jets are due for a let down as their actual goals-for percentage is 50.0% is well above the expected total.
On a game-by-game basis, the Jets have outplayed their opponents on just three occasions, yet they have seven wins. Another indicator that the Jets are overachieving on the road and are due for regression.
These teams met two nights ago and the Leafs absolutely annihilated the Jets from a metrics perspective. Toronto out-possessed Winnipeg with a 62.7% Corsi percentage, out-shot them 39-23, and out-chanced them in scoring chances 51-20 and high-danger chances 24-6. The ice was tilted the entire night, but the Jets somehow managed to escape with a 4-3 victory.
The Leafs should progress and the Jets are overdue for regression. That leaves a substantive edge in backing the Leafs tonight. The -190 price tag doesn’t reflect the dominance we should expect from Toronto tonight. Get on the Leafs moneyline.