Il Lombardia LIVE

Will the so-called easy race profile make a difference?

First, let’s look at the profile:

That’s 4735 meters of climbing for you bub so “easy” is more of a comparative term here. And definitely it is easier that usual with the Ghisallo and Sormano climbs both taking easier routes to the top. Wags say that this is the easiest route since 2014 where there was a small bunch sprint with Dan Martin escaping by a second over Valverde, Costa, Wellens, SamSan, Albasini, Gil Bear, J-Rod, and Aru on a course with 4066 meters of climbing. Still, notice the names there: either serious climby guys or Classics riders who were known for getting over some steep hills when they needed to. And yes, that course was definitely easier than this one. https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/il-lombardia/2014/route/stage-profiles

One could also say that that 2014 top 10 featured a better set of climbers than what we will see today. That’s a strong statement I know but outside of Pogacar I am not seeing a bunch of guys who can out climb him on their day. The obvious point of departure for Pogacar with “departure” meaning “that’s the last time we saw him” being the Sormano climb which while easier is still a beasty (though it doesn't have THAT descent): That climb is 12.9 kilometers long, but a plateau pulls the average percentage of climb down to 6.4 percent. In the first ten kilometers, however, the average is 6.9 percent, before the last kilometer and a half is up to 9.1 percent. If Pog is on form and he hasn’t attacked before then this climb which peaks at 40km to go is where’ it's at.

That last sentence has the word “if” doing some work. I mean he had the form at Emilia a week ago but fall races do have a habit of seeing fluctuating form for riders from one race to another. Lombardy might see a rider who we are discounting know have great mid-season form while others may have nothing in the tank. Take Remco, who is discounting his chances and for sure his results since winning the Worlds ITT haven’t been the best. But he and everyone else who is casually interested in cycling will know that Pogacar will attack somewhere at distance, either Sormano or the ascent towards the Madonna del Ghisallo which tops out with 80 km to go. Or both. One can imagine an attack at Ghisallo to winnow the field down than another at Sormano, and if need be, a final attack at Fermo. And remember Pogacar has won this race twice with a sprint at the finish line, in 2022 beating Mas and 2021 beating Masnada.

Climbing up to THAT would be pretty sweet.

If Oliver Zaugg can win this race, who stands a chance?

• Enric Mas was solid and has the staying power over such a long course.
• How about Davide Piganzoli for a storybook winner? He was third at Emilia, just behind Pidcock who was a last minute unwilling scratch.
• Michael Woods and Simon Yates have shown some form. Not on Pogs’ level, but that’s true for everyone here. And they can climb.
• Roger Adria has had several good results in the last month and was a factor in each race he participated in. Teammate Florian Lipowitz also seems game.
• Same with Nielson Powless, winner of the much easier Gran Piemonte but who may finally be in shape.
• We’ll see Matteo Jorgenson somewhere along the route.
• Then there’s Remco. Maybe he has enough form? Maybe he cannot be freaked out by Pog’s attacks to ride his own race?
• Tom Skujins? Sure. David Gaudu? Why not? Ben Healy? Sounds good!
• I’ll take your Lennert Van Eetvelt and raise you a William Junior Lecerf.
• How about Marc Hirschi, soon to be on Tudor? That would be interesting.

What Pog is aiming for

So that leaves us with Pog. he has three wins which ties him for the most wins by a non-Italian with Sean Kelly and Henri Pelissier. Since the millennium began only Damiano Cunego has also won three times. Fausto Coppi has the record number of wins with five. Four of those have been in a row so with a win today Pog will equal Coppi there and next year he’d be gunning for win #5. Doing that will further his desire to be ranked with the best all-time so there’s that.