Round 4 of the 2022 Candidates: Nepomniachtchi Wins Again to Take the Sole Lead

There are still 10 rounds left in the Candidates, but those who - like me - were unsure how Ian Nepomniachtchi’s confidence would be after the World Championship, are getting a wake-up call. He is the clear leader after round 4, and this on the strength of crushing wins against two of the three pre-tournament favorites. His victim in round 1 was Ding Liren, and this time it was Alireza Firouzja.

The game was a very main line Byrne Variation Najdorf until Firouzja played 15…Bc4. It’s not a novelty, but it’s a minor line compared to 15…a4, which shows up almost 5000 times in ChessBase’s online database. I’m not sure if this is a trustworthy line, but it does seem that Firouzja was objectively okay before his 20th move. Had he chosen, say, 20…Kh8 he would have stayed okay, but 20…Bxf1 was the first misstep on the way to what would soon be a lost position. Add to this his mounting and very serious time trouble, and it wasn’t surprising that the rest of the game was a disaster, culminating in a made-for-the-tactics-app finish.

The remaining three draws finished peacefully. Hikaru Nakamura played well to hold comfortably on the black side of a Berlin against Richard Rapport, while Teimour Radjabov was a bit worse against Jan-Krzysztof Duda until White’s erroneous 17.Qf3 allowed the equalizing 17…f5.

The last game to finish was perhaps the marquee matchup of the round, Ding Liren vs. Fabiano Caruana. Ding was pressing throughout, and it seemed that he had serious winning chances when Caruana sacrificed a pawn for some activity. It seems, though, that Caruana had either worked everything out correctly or had properly assessed the situation. He had to defend for a good long while, and did so successfully, holding the draw. Ding may have been disappointed, but he doesn’t seem to have been winning or even that close to winning. (Today’s games, with my analysis, are here.)

Nepo and Caruana were tied for the lead from the beginning, but now Nepomniachtchi is in clear first with 3/4, with Caruana half a point behind and the rest of the pack on 50% or less. Will they continue in the lead? We’ll see tomorrow (Wednesday), when we’ll have these pairings for round 5:

Caruana (2.5) - Rapport (2)

Radjabov (1.5) - Ding (1.5)

Firouzja (1.5) - Duda (2)

Nakamura (2) - Nepomniachtchi (3)