Rebounding Will Be A Critical Factor In The 2025 Final Four Game Between Duke And Houston

Keeping Houston off the boards and limiting second-chance shots will be critical for Duke’s success.

Everyone is focusing on defense, but we think that a key factor in the Duke-Houston game is going to be rebounding. It’s always a big deal to control the boards, but it could be crucial against Houston.

Why?

Because Houston builds around toughness. It’s most obvious on defense, but it’s true in rebounding too. Obviously, if you can control defensive rebounding, you’re going to limit second shot opportunities and keep Houston’s percentage lower.

Let’s start with who Houston’s rebounders are.

• J’wan Roberts - 6.3
• Joseph Tugler - 5.9
• Ja’Vier Francis - 5.1
• Mylick Wilson - 4.1
• Milos Uzman - 3.0
• Emanuel Sharp - 3.0
• Terrance Arcenaux - 2.7
• LJ Cryer - 2.3

And for Duke?

• Cooper Flagg - 7.5
• Khaman Maluach - 6.8
• Sion James - 4.2
• Kon Knueppel - 3.9
• Maliq Brown - 3.7
• Tyrese Proctor - 3.1
• Patrick Ngongba - 2.8
• Mason Gillis - 2.6

Duke’s rebounding total: 38.6

Houston’s rebounding total: 36.2

Obviously that’s close enough that the difference is irrelevant. Consider this though: Houston has lost four games. What happened on the boards in those games?

Auburn 74 Houston 69. Auburn had 22 defensive rebounds and 11 offensive. Houston had 18 defensive and 15 offensive. Totals: 33 each.

Alabama 85 Houston 80 (OT). Alabama had 28 defensive and 20 offensive. Houston had 23 defensive and 16 offensive. Totals: 48-39 in Alabama’s favor.

San Diego State 73 Houston 70 (OT) SDSU had 24 defensive and 14 offensive. Houston had 23 defensive and 17 offensive. Totals: 40-38 in Houston’s favor.

Texas Tech 82 Houston 81 (OT). Texas Tech had 23 defensive and 14 offensive. Houston had 22 defensive and 16 offensive. Totals: 38-37 in Houston’s favor.

You can’t learn much from SIUE, Gonzaga or Tennessee, games that Houston won easily. The most recent close game they had was against Purdue, so what happened there?

Houston controlled the boards pretty effectively, with 22 defensive and 16 offensive to 22 defensive and seven offensive for Purdue. Totals: 38-29 in Houston’s favor.

J’Wan Roberts (6-8/235) had 12 rebounds (five offensive) in that narrow win but Francis had five, Wilson four, while Tugler and Uzan had three each.

You can get some insights from stats here, but rebounding, as so many basketball legends tell us, is about heart and desire. Charles Barkley, for instance, was listed at 6-6 but was actually closer to 6-4. He pulled down 11.7 per game for his career. He had a better career rebounding average than Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (11.2). Kevin McHale was 6-11. He averaged 7.3 rebounds for his career.

We’ll say this too: while Flagg has the best average on both teams in Saturdays semi-final matchup, both rebound very well down the line. Houston has significantly more experience than does Duke does and the Blue Devils of course have three freshmen starters. They’re very much atypical in many respects, but still freshmen.

Houston really reminds us a lot of Tony Bennett’s best Virginia teams and also Butler in 2010. Look at the scores in those losses: five points, five points, three and one, and three went to overtime.

No one has been able to pull away from them to any meaningful extent.

However, consider this too: in those four losses here’s what Houston shot:

• Auburn: 41.4 percent overall, 38.5 percent for threes.
• Alabama: 36.9 percent overall, 31.6 percent for threes.
• San Diego State: 37.1 percent overall, 45.8 percent for threes.
• Texas Tech: 45.3 percent overall, 35.7 percent for threes.

And the number of threes hit in those four losses:

• Auburn - 5
• Alabama - 6
• San Diego State - 11
• Texas Tech - 5

In last year’s championship game, Danny Hurley figured that Purdue’s Zach Edey would get his and he did - 37 points and 11 rebounds. However, he also calculated that if UConn could limit the rest of the team to a certain extent - we can’t remember what the number was - there was no way Purdue could win.

Well, the rest of the team scored 23 points. There is no Edey in this game, but looking at Houston’s losses reveals a path Duke can follow: first, control the boards and second, lock down threes.

Easier said than done, but Houston is gritty, not pretty. Even in the incredibly impressive win over Tennessee, the Cougars shot just 42.4 percent overall and hit 9-25 (36 percent) on their threes.

There was no saving Tennessee, but if they had limited Houston to the average number of threes they hit against Auburn, Alabama and Texas Tech (let’s just call if five for all three to make the math a bit easier), UT would have shaved 12 points off of a 19 point win, making it 57-50. And if they had denied Houston three more second-chance baskets, this would have been a 51-50 game.

Easier said than done of course, but with four fewer threes and three more Volunteer rebounds, that game is very, very different. And that would be with Tennessee shooting 28.8 percent overall and just 17.2 percent on threes.

Clearly, you have to match if not exceed Houston’s toughness, but if you can control the boards and limit the outside shooting, the Cougars are vulnerable.

This is also notable from the Purdue game: Houston had 20 second chance points in a 62-60 win. if Purdue had taken two of those successful offensive rebounds away, they win.

And the Cougars also had 20 points in the paint against the Boilermakers, which may be more difficult to do against Duke with Maluach and Flagg prowling around.