Warriors squeeze just enough offense to outscore an equally inept offense in the Magic
It was ugly at times, but the Warriors managed to be slightly less ugly than their opponents.
In a battle of what could be described as a stoppable force against a movable object, the Golden State Warriors proved to be a tad bit more unstoppable and just a smidge immovable to squeeze out a win against the Orlando Magic — whose 108.0 points per 100 possessions ranks 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Warriors (112.0 points per 100 possessions, 21st) could be considered fortunate that their inept offense was blanketed by an even more inept offensive team.
As such, there were plenty of moments during their game tonight that were, in a basketball sense, downright ugly. The Magic are a natural foil for the Warriors, a team that struggles to create half-court offense against lengthy wings and bigs. On the other hand, the Magic lack outside shooting and high-level connective play, forcing them to count on the individual brilliance of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
The Warriors’ often intricate offense has been far from intricate — “convoluted” would be the apt term to describe it this season. Even with Steph Curry on the floor, opponents have made it their mission to focus around 80-90% of their resources toward stopping Curry, with the belief that the remaining 10-20% would be enough to temper Curry’s teammates. That calculated risk has, so far, been effective.
While this win tonight may have been due to the Magic disappointing even more than the Warriors’ own disappointing offense, they managed to squeeze just enough juice and push the right buttons as the game went into clutch period. Andrew Wiggins led the team with 25 points on 14 shots, including a 10-of-15 clip from the free throw line. The lowest hanging fruit for Wiggins was his aggression upon getting switches against the Magic’s smaller guards, born out of both on and off-ball screening actions.
Mismatch hunting and giving the ball to the man with the mismatch often runs anathema to the Warriors’ approach, but the simplest solution can occasionally be the most effective one. When Wiggins receives the screen in split action below, he coaxes Cole Anthony to have to switch onto him. The ball finds its way to Wiggins, who is given the luxury of space to bully his way to the rim against the smaller Anthony:
Virtually the same situation happened earlier in the game in Quinten Post’s case — with him being the screen setter instead of screen recipient in split action. When Buddy Hield comes off of Post and curls inside, the smaller Anthony Black has no choice but to veer back and switch onto the bigger Post, who decides to turn on the aggression switch instead of settling for a three, as he is wont to do:
Typically, veer-back switches like Black did above against Post isn’t what smaller guards and wings would do against bigs choosing to remain stationary beyond the three-point line. But Post has displayed the rather unique ability (relative to team standards) to catch and shoot the ball, which adds a different dimension to the Warriors’ offense. It hasn’t made enough of a macroscopic difference to lift their offense from the doldrums, but it’s been enough on a micro level to give the Warriors options that previously weren’t there.
For example: Post looking to set a pindown screen for Buddy Hield, only for Hield to reject the screen and cut inside, which draws two defenders in the process — including Post’s man.
Goga Bitadze’s natural proclivity as a roll-man defender is to drop back in the paint, a trait Post is well equipped to take advantage of, given that he’s shooting 37.5% on 3.6 threes per game during his first 11 games as an NBA professional. Post has his own limitations and doesn’t profile as the Warriors’ nightly closing center of the future — but he represents a different dimension the Warriors have needed to jolt their offense into life.
Post’s ability to punish bent defenses precludes that the defense bends in the first place. Curry is a one-man bending tool, while Post shows promise as someone who can finish off of Curry’s created advantages. On the other hand, the Warriors’ problems on offense have been due to the lack of advantage finishing across the board: lack of outside shooting, lack of rim finishing, etc.
Moses Moody — who scored 17 points on nine shots against the Magic — has previously flashed an ability to finish those created advantages, mostly through his catch-and-shoot threes. He’s on track to post his best outside shooting numbers of his career: 40% on 3.4 three-point attempts per game, one of which was born out of Curry drawing two to the ball, passing to Kevon Looney on the short roll, and Moody being open in the corner as a result of his man being drawn away to help in the paint:
In the end, the Warriors’ problems on offense stem from one simple conundrum: no one is able to score off of Curry’s created advantages on a consistent basis. That problem reared its ugly ahead anew against the Magic, but just enough finishing was present to mask the ugliness underneath. It was a temporary respite to an ailment that can’t be solved overnight, even if the reported prospect of Kevin Durant making his way back to the Bay Area turns into reality.
However, tonight’s game is a fairly clear blueprint to a complex problem: simple offense born out of advantage creation is and will continue to be key, whether it’s from created mismatches or consistent outside shooting. Curry — who has been showing signs of wilting against Father Time — is approaching an inflection point where it is paramount to have plenty of scoring support next to him, more so than at any stage of his career. Trading their way into getting that support is one solution, but it’s not enough; execution remains the most important ingredient to salvage what’s left of the Warriors’ season.