Ranking the entire Open Championship field, 156 to 1
Buy a few Euro Tour based sleepers to contend, sell on Rory & JT, Tiger can actually win this thing, and we’ve got a surprise up near the top. Viva Italia.
It’s time for yet another major championship, which means it’s time to rank every single dang player in the 2018 Open Championship. Carnoustie’s dried-out conditions are set to provide a hard-to-predict championship, but we proceed on ranking the field off gut and Trophee Hassan II overconsumption anyway. The R&A provides us with 156 players, about near double the size of The Masters — and with a quantifiable number of players no one in the Media Centre’s ever heard of before.
Here’s the Open Championship field, ranked 156-1.
I get paid to write about golf and have no idea who you are
156. Thomas Curtis, 155. Haraldur Magnus, 154. Ashton Turner, 153. James Robinson, 152. Tom Lewis, 151. Brett Rumford, 150. Rhys Enoch, 149. Yuxin Lin, 148. Jack Senior, 147. Grant Forrest, 146. Min Chel Choi, 145. Oliver Wilson, 144. Nikolai Hojgaard, 143. Sam Locke, 142. Masanori Kobayashi, 141. Sanhyun Park, 140. Ryuko Tokimatsu, 139. Sean Crocker, 138. Kodai Ichihara, 137. Jovan Rebula, 136. Cameron Davis, 135. Masahiro Kawamura, 134. Brady Schnell, 133. Shota Akiyoshi, 132. Danthai Boonma
This is the beauty (?) of The Open. It’s the world’s championship, and sometimes the back of the field is random OWGR names that populate the 800+ region pulled out of a hat. Yuxin Lin won the Asia Pacific Amateur. Jovan Rebula is Ernie Els’ nephew and the recent British Am winner. Other than that, not sure there’s a name on this list I’m all that familar with — even as a week-in, week-out Euro Tour consumer. Thomas Curtis has no professional status on any major tour. Haraldur Magnus is Iceland’s first ever major competitor, coming from the way-down-the-chain Nordic Golf League. There’s a few others here from the EuroPro Tour, Europe’s equivalent of the Hooters Tour. There’s a set from the Japan Tour, which tends to often, fair or unfair, have its players discounted when they travel to majors.
The world’s Open, though!
Guys that used to be good, and also Todd Hamilton
131. David Duval, 130. Todd Hamilton, 129. Sandy Lyle, 128. Darren Clarke, 127. Marc Calcavecchia, 126. Tom Lehman
Your former champions. Fair warning: Fully expect one of these dudes to lurk into contention this week. A firm track might be just the recipe for one of the older guys — say, Tom Lehman — to sneak around the top of the leaderboard for a bit. Not so much for some of the others here. Duval and Ben Curtis have mostly given up the game, for example.
Guys catching an EasyJet flight out on Friday night
125. Michael Hendry 124. Michael Kim, 123. Jens Dantorp, 122. Lucas Herbert, 121. Marcus Armitage, 120. Hideto Tanihara, 119. Yuta Ikeda, 118. Shaun Norris, 117. Gavin Green, 116. Jonas Blixt, 115. Fabrizio Zanotti, 114. Sung Kang, 113. Jhonattan Vegas, 112. Yusaku Miyazato, 111. Abraham Ancer, 110. Ryan Armour, 109. Matt Jones, 108. Scott Jamieson, 107. George Coetzee, 106. Pat Perez, 105. Ryan Moore, 104. Kelly Kraft, 103. Jason Kokrak, 102. Austin Cook, 101. Zander Lombard, 100. Bronson Burgoon, 99. Jordan Smith, 98. Patton Kizzire, 97. Danny Willett
Here’s our catch-all bin of established, good-enough tour pros, none of which I’d expect to make the cut this week — all for varying reasons. Some are American players with no track record at all on a major championship links, like Kelly Kraft. Some qualified with a flash-in-the-pan performance on a course almost the complete opposite of this week’s Carnoustie (Michael Kim). A trend here will be me being rather sour on the chances of Americans with little links experience this week. Target golf, this will not be.
Older guys not as bad as other older guys. Also South African.
96. Ernie Els, 95. Retief Goosen
The South African vets aren’t near what they once were, but if there’s a dry, baked-out links track in the offing, there’s reason that the two could lurk around the leaderboard on the weekend. Smart, heady course management shall play far better than bombing & gouging this week.
FUNBAD!
94. Julian Suri, 93. Shubhankar Sharma, 92. Satoshi Kodaira, 91. Jazz Janewattanond, 90. Beau Hossler, 89. Matt Southgate, 88. Marcus Kinhult
Love all of these guys, some of which may be stars eventually, but it might be early. I’d expect an 86 from someone in this lot this week, despite a bright future. Thus they get the FUNBAD tag for the week.
Sad to report to fellow SHUBHEADs out there, that our sweet boy has missed 7 of his last 10 worldwide cuts. He’ll need a good week to stop his slide in the OWGR. Name to watch: Jazz Janewattanond. Won on the Asian Tour two weeks ago. Young. Fun. Is named Jazz. Southgate’s had a nice run as well through the Rolex Series, which should provide a pretty good predictor this week.
Guys who a talk radio host who pays cursory attention to golf four times a year will pick as a dark horse because they haven’t regularly watched golf for five years
87. Padraig Harrington, 86. Martin Kaymer, 85. Adam Scott
Man, it’s weird listing all of these guys this low, but all seem to have lost it for the time being. Padraig’s best finish this year is a T-36 in Italy, and that’s quite the positive outlier. Kaymer misses more cuts than he makes, though did have a near miss at his home tournament in Germany a few weeks back. Adam Scott has turned into a replacement level PGA Tour pro. Ick. Not this week for any, despite how fond Paddy’s memories of Carnoustie from 2008 may be.
Meh
84. Kevin Kisner, 83. Adam Hadwin, 82. Chesson Hadley, 81. Brendan Steele, 80. Keegan Bradley, 79. Chez Reavie, 78. Cameron Smith, 77. Nicolas Colsaerts, 76. Matt Wallace, 75. Erik van Rooyen, 74. Si Woo Kim, 73. Anirban Lahiri, 72. Daniel Berger, 71. Kevin Na, 70. Andy Sullivan, 69. Ben An, 68. Paul Dunne, 67. Kevin Chappell, 66. Alex Levy, 65. Brandon Stone, 64. Chris Wood, 63. Ross Fisher
Here’s some guys. Some I like more than others — Erik van Rooyen. Some I like less than others here — Daniel Berger. I’m tired and you’ve already stopped reading we don’t need to go into deep detail here, let’s keep moving. No expectations for anyone on this list.
Bernhard Langer
62. Bernhard Langer
Per usual during this exercise, Langer gets his own tier. He’s still at the top of the senior game, but not as dominant as past seasons — with only one win and 4th in the Charles Schwab Cup. Still, the fast track should help him keep up with the younger players this week as it’ll act as a leveling ground. Tom Watson nearly did it in 2009. If someone’s turning back the clock like that here, Langer’s your best candidate.
Guys who should probably make the cut, I guess
61. Luke List, 60. Emiliano Grillo, 59. Kyle Stanley, 58. Gary Woodland, 57. Russell Henley, 56. Rafa Cabrera-Bello, 55. Jason Dufner, 54. Stewart Cink, 53. Lee Westwood, 52. Kiradech Aphibarnrat, 51. Peter Uihlein, 50. Charles Howell III, 49. Brandt Snedeker, 48. Charl Schwartzel, 47. Shane Lowry, 46. Brian Harman, 45. Jimmy Walker, 44. Charley Hoffman, 43. Tony Finau, 42. Andrew Landry
Mostly really good US-based PGA Tour players that don’t see a ton of links golf. Some might be well-suited here — Gary Woodland grew up in the Kansas plains and has a sexual stinger to reflect it. Andrew Landry’s known as one who has played well in windy conditions. Stewart Cink might be turning a corner, and is a former Open champion. Lee Westwood, maybe, finally? Plenty of capable names here, but I’m sticking with my trend of shying away from guys that see more target golf week to week than links-style, dried-out setups.
Five Euro Tour sleepers I really love and can rank them here because I make the rules
41. Alexander Bjork, 40. Eddie Pepperell, 39. Thorbjorn Olesen, 38. Jorge Campillo, 37. Ryan Fox
DON’T WATCH THE EURO TOUR? Buddy, you’re missing out. Had you binge-watched Trophee Hassan II, or the Oman Open, or Rocco Forte, you’d know more of these names! Here’s a somewhat random five selections I like from the Euro Tour this week. Bjork’s inside the Top 70 in the world, and probably 95 percent of US golf fans haven’t ever heard of him despite being pretty regularly in contention across the pond. Pepperell is a Twitter star, and would be an absolute fan-favorite winner — a second place at the Scottish last week is a nice sign. Olesen’s had three top six finishes in his last five starts after a slow beginning to the year. Noted Indiana Hoosier Jorge Campillo is perhaps the steadiest bet of any one single player to finish high on a given week on the Euro Tour — seven top tens in 16 starts this year — and is well-overdue for a breakthrough. Fox is an absolute bomber, and is coming off back-to-back top-6 finishes in Scotland and Ireland. Take the money line on one of these guys if you’re feeling lucky.
Guys who should safely make the cut, and also Bubba
36. Hideki Matsuyama, 35. Bubba Watson, 34. Haotong Li, 33. Webb Simpson, 32. Thomas Pieters, 31. Xander Schauffele, 30. Matt Fitzpatrick, 29. Patrick Cantlay, 28. Dylan Frittelli, 27. Bryson DeChambeau, 26. Louis Oosthuizen, 25. Paul Casey
I don’t know what to do here. Bubba’s playing great golf at the moment and you’re also completely insane if you’re projecting him anywhere near the top of the leaderboard at Carnoustie. We’ll put him here, out of respect for what he’s done in 2018. Do not be shocked if he shoots 84 on Thursday. Convert your Pieters stock to Frittelli stock for the week, though the Belgian’s turning it around of late. Oostie is way too low here, probably.
Please do not screenshot this section and tweet it on Sunday afternoon
24. Justin Thomas, 23. Rory McIlroy
WHEW, I’m not sure if this is a hot-take but here we go: I don’t like JT or Rory at all this week at Carnoustie, not one bit, not at all. Here’s why.
Despite, I’d argue, being two of the three most talented players in the game when they’re on, I don’t think either is particularly suited to play well at a baked-out Carnoustie. Both (oddly enough for Isles-born Rory), are classic, target-golf, high-ball-flight type players. Don’t use the ground a ton at places they win. They are players constructed in a lab to win US-based golf tournaments. Not so much at The Open.
Obviously, that can be overcome on some weeks at some layouts — Rory’s done it already once. A blanket statement inferring that these guys can’t win on a true links would be stupid, beyond dumb — they can, have, and most likely will continue to in the future. But this is me wondering out loud if this particular dried-up setup forces them even further away from their true strengths on a golf course. I don’t know. I look forward to be wildly wrong on this, but I don’t like either to really contend this week.
Guys with an outside shot if things fall right
22. Patrick Reed, 21. Phil Mickelson, 20. Matt Kuchar, 19. Branden Grace, 18. Tyrrell Hatton, 17. Ian Poulter, 16. Zach Johnson, 15. Jason Day, 14. Brooks Koepka, 13. Marc Leishman, 12. Jon Rahm, 11. Russell Knox
I’d expect each and every one of these guys to spend some time on the leaderboard this week, but don’t like any one in particular here as a winner. Hatton and Poulter will be trendy picks. You’re going to hear about Leishman’s ability to play the ground game all week. Kuchar and Phil will linger. Koepka’s star is now too big to look past on tough setups. Roo Knox will be a super trendy home-standing sleeper pick after a 2nd in France and a win in Ireland. Phil will probably do something dumb, and finish T-26.
THE CONTENDERS
10. Jordan Spieth
Weird, dry set-up? Defending champion? Greens where probably everyone will putt like garbage because they’ll be too long and hairy? JS is a contender in major championships until proven otherwise. His form’s been mostly trash since The Masters, but I refuse to rule him out. I think Carnoustie should play to his strengths. We’ll see.
9. Henrik Stenson
I love him so much here I’m looking past the injury. If he’s healthy, watching Henrik hit trajy long-irons around Carnoustie will be softcore porn. Only Patrick Reed has a better combined score at the majors this year. Owns basically the best Open Championship performance ever.
The problem of course? An elbow injury has had him sidelined since the U.S. Open, and he’s admitted expectations are low for the week. I don’t care. I think we’ll see him contend anyway, if the elbow can just hold up through four rounds.
8. Alex Noren
Back-to-back Swedes here. Long pooh-poohed by American fans for his performance in majors stateside, Noren finished T-6 last year at the Open with a nice weekend run. The question: could he get it done when the pressure is on the and the lights are bright? He’s coming off a nice win at a tough Le Golf National track in Paris just a couple of weeks ago. He should be in the mix this week.
7. Tiger Woods
And here we go. I’ll say it. I’m going to say it.
Tiger Woods can win this golf tournament, this week.
There’s still nobody better when it comes to thinking around a golf course, and keeping the driver in the bag should lead to good results for Cat if he can keep the putter momentum rolling from The National a couple of weeks back. Plan your weekend accordingly.
6. Rickie Fowler
The hot, trendy pick this week — and I’m not really sure why, but I’m getting tired and this feels about right, whatever. Played well at Gullane last week, fairly rock-solid run of play since The Masters. Has gone longer here without a top-5 (last in 2014) than any other of his near-misses at majors. Low, penetrating ballflight should help this week.
5. Dustin Johnson
Going to be honest: I’m not really sure what to do with DJ. With as dry as the fairways are, will length be an advantage, a hindrance, or will it level the field completely? I think it’s hard to tell — and may be dependent on how different guys try to play the golf course. We’ve already heard how he drove it into Barry Burn some 450+ yards from the 18th tee earlier in the week. I can’t really make sense of that, but if he can control distances, it’s tough to see DJ not hanging around.
4. Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy’s becoming a gamer for major championships, and it’s starting to seem like an if-not-when situation for the 27-year-old. On a set-up that should dictate lots of irons off the tee and put a premium on placement over distance, it seems to follow that one of the game’s best ballstrikers should be a nice bet.
3. Sergio Garcia
I’ve been beating the drum, as expected, for Sergio to pick up his second major championship at Carnoustie this week since he put on his green jacket last April.
The last time we came here, no one was better for the balance of the golf tournament than Sergio — and by a fairly substantial amount. He held multiple-shot leads after each of the first three rounds, and sat four clear of all competitors with 14 holes to play at the 2007 Open. Then came Old Sergio, the collapses and antics that defined his career up until about 16 months ago. A three-bogey-in-four-hole stretch blew his lead early, and then back-nine jockeying with Padraig and Andres Romero to salvage a brilliant week of play. One putt could’ve done it, and, well, we’ve all seen the photo.
It’s fair to wonder if New Sergio, older, wiser, married with a family, holds that lead. There’s no one who knows better what to do at Carnoustie than El Nino, and he’s rounding back into form in time to do some damage after a rough spell on the course following the birth of his first child. Maybe chalk those four missed cuts in five weeks to a lack of sleep.
Is is the week for number two? He’s a favorite, just maybe not the favorite this week.
2. Francesco Molinari
What. WHAT. WHY ARE YOU YELLING AT ME JUST HOLD ON HEAR ME OUT HERE.
No one in the world has been as as good as Frank over the past month. That’s inarguable. He’s the hottest player in the world at the moment, and he’s perhaps Sergio Lite — a brilliant ballstriker and very meh putter who hasn’t quite gotten it done in a major yet. Now is the time. Consider his results the last five starts;
- Won on a huge stage at Wentworth over Rory by two shots
- Finished 2nd by one shot to Thorbjorn Olesen at the Italian Open
- T-25 at the US Open
- Won the Quicken Loans National by eight freaking shots
- Finished T-2 at the John Deere Classic
Now, the knock on Molinari will be two things. One, he should’ve bailed on his U.S. swing to play in Scotland rather than play the John Deere and then fly to Carnoustie the week of the event. I’m less concerned about that for a Euro-based player. Second, he hasn’t finished top 10 at an Open since 2013. Maybe that’s a more well-reasoned concern, but he’s at least seen Carnoustie before. He made his major debut here in 2007.
Seriously though, just digest this stat: In his last three non-major starts, he’s fired 66 OR BETTER in 10 of his last twelve rounds — the worst being 70 on Saturday at the Deere. It’s a borderline insane run.
Take him at 25-1 or whatever you can get and please send me a cut afterward. Venmo in twitter bio. He’s great value, and might be my pick to win — but I won’t call him the favorite.
Your favorite: Justin Rose
That honor goes to the world’s most consistently steady player this year, who’s been through the battles, and is becoming the safest pick at any big championship. There’s no player in professional golf more consistent than Justin Rose. He’s playing the best golf of his life reaching 3rd in the world rankings. He’s steady enough to take what Carnoustie gives, and is exceedingly confident this week despite a record at the Open that might not be as strong as you’d guess without looking.
He might not win on Sunday, but he’s the safest bet in the field to contend. For that reason, he’ll get the nod at number one for now.