How likely is Steph Curry to win the Finals MVP?
Welp, Steph didn't win FMVP again. Depressing, but will he ever win a FMVP? At first this seems like a subject for wild speculation, but I noticed something. In Game 3 Steph went 0-9 from three point range for three quarters. Aha! What seemly is an intractable problem becomes a simple calculation. Imagine if we had three Steph Currys out there, then playing they would have gone 0-27! Now we know from 538 that the odds of going 0-27 is 1/72,000. So we can either divide 1/72,000 by three (1/24,000) multiply by three (1/216,000) or multiply by itself three times (1/373,248,000,000,000)
Now, taking the best case scenario (1/24,000) it looks bad for Steph, however remember, each year is another chance! So though the odds are 1/24,000 each year, the probability goes up each year he plays! So summing a series of playing years to get a probability of greater than 50%, Steph would not have to play 24 centuries but only for a little under two thousand years to win the FMVP. Converting the digital numbers to calendar years, Steph will win the Finals MVP October 23rd 4004 AD.
Surprising result to be sure, but we humbly go where the numbers lead us, and try to accept the results that statistics reveal to us. The implications are astonishing. Not only will the NBA not reduce the regular season, they will double the number of games in a season to match baseball, have the Finals in October, AND the series only goes five games that year.
I have gone through these numbers backwards and forwards (mostly backwards though) and will let them stand on their own merits.
NOTES
1. I know that the sharp-eyed readers here will see the big flaw in my argument,...injuries. Yes, injuries can affect the results by three or four years.
2. Some readers will be uncomfortable with modern analytics and they are free to ignore these results.
3. Some might point out that after a few decades or centuries the Finals MVP voters are likely give it to Steph just for showing up,...but I choose to deal with this purely in basketball terms and not sentimentality.
4. I believe that I have followed all laws and regulations regarding posting basketball predictions and I freely admit my use of the 538 number without holding them responsible for my interpretation.