.@RougnedOdor has MORE THAN TWICE as many HR (30) as he does free passes (14).
Rougned Odor is on the Verge of Something Historic (there's a "but"...)
Originally published at Plate Coverage.com
Rougned Odor is having an interesting season (and it has nothing to do with that chopping right to Jose Bautista's jaw). Odor has been fairly productive for the Texas Rangers, hitting .284/.305/.523, good for a 111 OPS+. His value as a hitter, however, is based entirely on his power (30 HR, with an anemic .305 OBP). As of this writing, Odor has come to the plate 554 times this season -- and he's walked 14 times (while striking out 116 times).
Put another way, Odor is twice as likely to hit a home run as he is to take a walk.
Put another way, Odor is twice as likely to hit a home run as he is to take a walk.
This is a rare feat in the annals of major league baseball (nice of MLB.com to commemorate the occasion with a tweet!). In fact, it appears it's never been done before by a player with at least 25 home runs in a season. Dante Bichette came within a whisper of this dubious achievement in 1995, when he mashed 40 altitude-aided HR while walking but 22 times for the Colorado Rockies. Odor's "closest" competitors in this unique category this year? Baltimore's Johnathan Schoop, with 21 HR and 18 walks, and the Yankees' Didi Gregorious, with 17 HR and 15 walks.
It's a striking "accomplishment" -- one might assume pitchers would be more careful with a guy capable of hitting upwards of 35 HR. But Odor obviously subscribes to a "swing-first" philosophy [1] -- let's see if he can maintain his 2.5% walk rate for another few weeks (through five September games Odor has one walk -- not exactly Joey Votto, but for Odor this is Job-like patience).
The binary, of course, is home runs per strikeout. The best single-season ratio in history (min. 25 HR) belongs to Tommy Holmes, who in 1945 hit 28 HR while striking out only nine times. Tommy Holmes was three times as likely to hit a home run as he was to strikeout. Astonishing. Next-best on the list is Joe DiMaggio, who in 1941 smashed 30 HR with only 13 strikeouts (other than that, 1941 wasn't all that noteworthy for Joe D.). DiMaggio, of course, is the platonic ideal when it comes to power/contact rates: His 361 HR/369 K is the best such ratio in history among players with more than 300 career home runs (among the 500 HR club, Ted Williams claims the mark with 521 HR/709 K).
Of course, it's a much different game today than it was in Joe D.'s time. In decades past, the thought of striking out even 100 times in a season was so shameful that managers used to bench players as they approached the mark, so as to spare them a "scarlet K." Today, with a better understanding of how an offense works (and financial incentives that reward power without penalizing whiffs), a slugger who strikes out less than 100 times is notable. The last time a true power hitter amassed more home runs than strikeouts in a season was 2004, when Barry Bonds hit 45 HR while striking out 41 times (he also walked 232 times that season, 120 of which were intentional).
Notable HR/SO Ratios, sorted by total HR:
It's a striking "accomplishment" -- one might assume pitchers would be more careful with a guy capable of hitting upwards of 35 HR. But Odor obviously subscribes to a "swing-first" philosophy [1] -- let's see if he can maintain his 2.5% walk rate for another few weeks (through five September games Odor has one walk -- not exactly Joey Votto, but for Odor this is Job-like patience).
The binary, of course, is home runs per strikeout. The best single-season ratio in history (min. 25 HR) belongs to Tommy Holmes, who in 1945 hit 28 HR while striking out only nine times. Tommy Holmes was three times as likely to hit a home run as he was to strikeout. Astonishing. Next-best on the list is Joe DiMaggio, who in 1941 smashed 30 HR with only 13 strikeouts (other than that, 1941 wasn't all that noteworthy for Joe D.). DiMaggio, of course, is the platonic ideal when it comes to power/contact rates: His 361 HR/369 K is the best such ratio in history among players with more than 300 career home runs (among the 500 HR club, Ted Williams claims the mark with 521 HR/709 K).
Of course, it's a much different game today than it was in Joe D.'s time. In decades past, the thought of striking out even 100 times in a season was so shameful that managers used to bench players as they approached the mark, so as to spare them a "scarlet K." Today, with a better understanding of how an offense works (and financial incentives that reward power without penalizing whiffs), a slugger who strikes out less than 100 times is notable. The last time a true power hitter amassed more home runs than strikeouts in a season was 2004, when Barry Bonds hit 45 HR while striking out 41 times (he also walked 232 times that season, 120 of which were intentional).
Notable HR/SO Ratios, sorted by total HR:
| Rk | Player | HR | SO | Year | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | RBI | BB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Mize | 51 | 42 | 1947 | 154 | 586 | 137 | 177 | 26 | 2 | 138 | 74 | .302 | .384 | .614 | .998 |
| 2 | Ted Kluszewski | 49 | 35 | 1954 | 149 | 573 | 104 | 187 | 28 | 3 | 141 | 78 | .326 | .407 | .642 | 1.049 |
| 3 | Lou Gehrig | 49 | 31 | 1934 | 154 | 579 | 128 | 210 | 40 | 6 | 166 | 109 | .363 | .465 | .706 | 1.172 |
| 4 | Ted Kluszewski | 47 | 40 | 1955 | 153 | 612 | 116 | 192 | 25 | 0 | 113 | 66 | .314 | .382 | .585 | .967 |
| 5 | Joe DiMaggio | 46 | 37 | 1937 | 151 | 621 | 151 | 215 | 35 | 15 | 167 | 64 | .346 | .412 | .673 | 1.085 |
| 6 | Barry Bonds | 45 | 41 | 2004 | 147 | 373 | 129 | 135 | 27 | 3 | 101 | 232 | .362 | .609 | .812 | 1.422 |
| 7 | Mel Ott | 42 | 38 | 1929 | 150 | 545 | 138 | 179 | 37 | 2 | 151 | 113 | .328 | .449 | .635 | 1.084 |
| 8 | Ted Kluszewski | 40 | 34 | 1953 | 149 | 570 | 97 | 180 | 25 | 0 | 108 | 55 | .316 | .380 | .570 | .950 |
| 9 | Johnny Mize | 40 | 37 | 1948 | 152 | 560 | 110 | 162 | 26 | 4 | 125 | 94 | .289 | .395 | .564 | .959 |
| 10 | Joe DiMaggio | 39 | 30 | 1948 | 153 | 594 | 110 | 190 | 26 | 11 | 155 | 67 | .320 | .396 | .598 | .994 |
Bonds, obviously, has the most impressive all-around season on the list (and arguably, the most impressive season ever by a hitter), but we must note Lou Gehrig (who K'd a scant 31 times on the way to a bruising 1934 Triple Crown), and Johnny Mize, who remains the only man to strike out less than 50 times in a season in which he hit 50 home runs.
No current major leaguer will ever aspire to make this list – and they don't have try. Strikeouts just aren't that important in the grand scheme of things if a player does other things well (see Trout, Mike). But walks are important -- very important. As noted earlier, Rougned Odor's walk rate is a miniscule 2.5% -- for context, the league average in 2016 is about 8%. Sure, he hits home runs -- but he's also an out machine who brings little defensive value to his position. Give him his dubious-but-kinda-fun record this year -- and then it's time to get to work: The the 22-year old will need to think about changing his approach at the plate if he wants to become a genuinely productive player over the long term.
No current major leaguer will ever aspire to make this list – and they don't have try. Strikeouts just aren't that important in the grand scheme of things if a player does other things well (see Trout, Mike). But walks are important -- very important. As noted earlier, Rougned Odor's walk rate is a miniscule 2.5% -- for context, the league average in 2016 is about 8%. Sure, he hits home runs -- but he's also an out machine who brings little defensive value to his position. Give him his dubious-but-kinda-fun record this year -- and then it's time to get to work: The the 22-year old will need to think about changing his approach at the plate if he wants to become a genuinely productive player over the long term.
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1. Not gonna lie -- worked to get that one in.