Phillies’ biggest strength in recent years may be a weakness

Starting pitching has been the Phillies’ calling card in this era of contention. Consistently a top five unit in innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and other key categories since 2022, the rotation has not been as nearly as reliable during the Phillies’ 9-19 start. It’s a big reason — maybe even the reason — why the club finds itself in such dire straits.

A Phillies starter has yet to throw seven innings in a game this season. They are one of only five teams in the majors to not get at least one start of at least seven innings. They’ve gotten only six innings out of a starter seven times through 28 games.

They are not used to getting this kind of length out of the rotation.

Percentage of Phillies games where starting pitcher throws at least 6 innings

• 2022: 55.5%
• 2023: 54.3%
• 2024: 53.7%
• 2025: 58.6%
• 2026: 25%

The 2025 Phillies led the league with 39 starts of at least seven innings, 10 more than any other club in baseball. They were 31-8 in those games.

Getting back to starting pitchers throwing seven innings in nearly a quarter of games would do wonders for a team reeling in an early-season slump. For the Phillies to get back into the playoff picture in the National League, it just simply has to happen.

The main punching bag is gone as the Phillies released Taijuan Walker on Thursday. In 22 2/3 innings across five games, Walker gave up 23 earned runs.

The weakest link now is Aaron Nola, who has not recorded a win since April 3. He put the Phillies in an early hole on Sunday when he allowed a three-run home run to Matt Olson in the bottom of the first in an eventual 6-2 loss.

Walker’s issues were a short-term problem. Nola’s struggles are more worrisome considering that he is under contract for four more seasons after this year. One of the more durable and reliable starters in the league for many years, Nola has looked like damaged goods in the early going. There is still time for the “even year Nola” trend to kick in. Nola has received National League Cy Young Award votes in every even year dating back to his career season in 2018.

But Nola and Walker are far from the only Phillies starters that are struggling. Jesús Luzardo is striking out the world, but still can’t avoid the big inning. He has a 6.91 ERA, but a 3.26 FIP. He has the arsenal of a perennial Cy Young contender, but he has to execute better with runners on base.

It’s unfair to be too critical of Cristopher Sánchez, but the Phillies needed him to be a stopper in his last two starts. He still has a squeaky clean 2.94 ERA, but he has allowed 44 hits, the second-most in the National League behind Colorado’s Michael Lorenzen. His WHIP (walks plus hits over innings pitched) has increased from 1.064 in 2025 to 1.604.

There is hope. It’s reasonable to expect Sánchez and Luzardo to be better moving forward. Rookie Andrew Painter has looked better than his 5.25 ERA would indicate. The unit got a massive boost on Saturday with the return of Zack Wheeler from thoracic outlet syndrome. He may not be the Wheeler of old right away in his first few starts out of the gate, but he should be a valuable addition to a rotation that needs both quality and quantity.

The current starting five of Sánchez, Luzardo, Wheeler, Nola and Painter is strong. The numbers through 38 games, however, are strange. The rotation is dead last in batting average against (.307), BABIP (.380), WHIP (1.64), hits allowed (176) and ERA (5.80 ERA). They are 20th in innings pitched at 138 and tied for 23rd in quality starts (6). They also have the fourth-best strikeouts-per-nine (9.72) and are 13th in FIP (4.00).

If you’re looking for hope, here’s this: The rotation is not going to have the worst ERA in baseball. Some of these numbers will even out, and it will eventually lead to more Phillies wins.

The only way it doesn’t get better, however, is if they are hit with a wave of injuries. The depth behind the starting five is not promising. Alan Rangel is the likely No. 6 starter. Jean Cabrera, another starter on the 40-man roster, has an ERA over 7 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Cabrera did win his first game on Sunday at Lehigh Valley after allowing only two earned runs through five innings.

The Phillies front office failed to accumulate sufficient rotation depth in the offseason, something that will probably haunt them at times later this year. In the event of an injury, the Phillies may be searching the waiver wire for options. The Phillies survived last year as the emergence of Mick Abel and the Walker Buehler acquisition did a lot to keep the unit afloat. The other Walker, Taijuan, also stepped up to give them 123 2/3 innings and a 4.08 ERA. They were at there best, even with Wheeler and Nola both dealing with major injuries. They are somehow thinner this year.

Maybe last year’s first round pick Gage Wood is a realistic option near the end of this season. There is a reason why the Phillies used their first eight draft picks last year on pitchers.

The rotation, not the lineup nor the bullpen, is the main reason why the Phillies have been one of the best teams in the sport since 2022. Even though they are not receiving the brunt of the criticism at the moment, the unit’s early struggles best explain why the Phillies are ten games under .500 at the end of April.