Series Preview: Mets Searching For Offensive Consistency Against Giants

The New York Mets (3-3) have had a couple of rough days at the plate. There’s no denying that. After scoring 11 runs in their Opening Day win over the Pittsburgh Pirates, they have averaged just 2.4 runs per game over their last five. That was highlighted by scoring one run over their final 23 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals this week. The pitching has been great; it’s only a matter of time before this offense begins to click. They will look to do that against the San Francisco Giants (2-4), who just took two of three from the San Diego Padres. They are looking to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2021 under first-time MLB manager Tony Vitello. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the four pitching matchups.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Thursday: David Peterson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (0-1, 3.38 ERA): Peterson began his season with a solid outing against the Pirates, allowing no runs over 5 1/3 innings. He didn’t surrender a single extra-base hit. One potential red flag is velocity was down on a few of his pitches. He averaged 92.3 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season, down to 90.1 MPH against Pittsburgh. Similar trend with Peterson’s sinker. Ray also threw 5 1/3 innings in his season debut, taking the loss against the New York Yankees. He performed well, giving up two earned runs on five hits. Unfortunately, he got no runs of support from his offense. Ray has done well against the Mets in the past, going 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA in nine career starts.
• Friday: Nolan McLean (0-0, 3.60 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.50 ERA): After a bumpy start, McLean began to find more of his best stuff in his first start. He only managed to go five innings against Pittsburgh, allowing two earned runs on four hits. McLean struck out eight hitters, five of which came on his curveball. McLean will make his first career start against the Giants this weekend. Mahle has bounced around, pitching for four teams in the last five years. Last year went very well for him, pitching to a 2.18 ERA in 86 2/3 innings with the Texas Rangers. Mahle opened his season with four innings against the Yankees, giving up two earned runs on five hits. He has not faced the Mets since 2019, when he was a member of the Cincinnati Reds.
• Saturday: Clay Holmes (1-0, 3.18 ERA) vs. Landen Roupp (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Holmes looked sharp earlier on Monday against the Cardinals, giving up two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. 8 of the 17 outs he got came on ground balls. Holmes is definitely in a good place when that’s the percentage. He has not thrown well at Oracle Park in the past, pitching to a 5.40 ERA in 13 1/3 innings. Roupp has been the most impressive arm for the Giants to this point. In his first start against the Padres, he threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. Roupp had a solid 2025 season, pitching to a 3.80 ERA in 22 starts. Now in his age-27 season, let’s see if he can really break out in the middle of the Giants rotation.
• Sunday: Kodai Senga (0-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (1-1, 7.36 ERA): Senga came out of spring training with expectations rising. He lived up to those in his first start against the Cardinals, giving the Mets six strong innings. Only two earned runs allowed on four hits, nine strikeouts, and most importantly, 92 pitches. Senga didn’t reach six innings in any of his final 10 starts last season. If he can do that on a more regular basis, with the increased velocity, he’s a game-changer. Webb had a brutal start to the season. On Opening Night against the Yankees, he gave up seven runs (six earned) in five innings. To his credit, he bounced back against the Padres this week, allowing three runs over six innings in a win. Webb is 3-2 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

Let’s get to these offensive struggles. The Mets are slashing .162/.314/.265 with runners in scoring position through six games. In terms of batting average in those situations, only the Reds rank worse. It seems that a majority of the lineup is pressing when runners are in scoring position, swinging at pitches outside the zone, taking good pitches to hit, etc. Do I think that will continue for much longer? No, many of these guys have shown over the course of their careers that they thrive in high-leverage spots. That being said, the Mets need to improve in that area sooner rather than later.

PREDICTION

Neither of these teams has gotten off to an ideal start. That makes for an intriguing four-game series. Last season, the Mets swept a three-game series in San Francisco towards the end of July. I don’t anticipate that happening again, but I like the Mets’ chances to bounce back. I have the Mets taking three of four.

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