Breaking Down Steamer Projections for Mets’ 2026 Hitters

The word for the 2026 Mets? Change. Out with the old and in with the new. While that philosophy is most apparent in their roster construction (gone are fan favorites and homegrown players like Edwin Díaz, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil), the new comes in different forms. Sure, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams, Luis Robert Jr., and Luke Weaver are just a few of the new faces in Flushing this spring, but the Mets’ new game plan is in season. The name of the game? Defense. They may have a different approach at the plate, opting for contact over power, but time will tell.

The 2025 Mets entered the season as not only NL East favorites but playoff contenders. We all know how that story ended. However, their fate might have been in the numbers. Steamer projected a combined total of 27.8 fWAR for the 2025 hitters before re-signing Pete Alonso and a 10.9 fWAR from their rotation. At the end of the 2025 season, the lineup finished with a 29.0 fWAR while the rotation compiled a 11.4 fWAR. They defied expectations but still fell short.

Below are Steamer projections for the 2026 Mets hitters:

• Francisco Lindor: .259/.336/.452, 26 HR, 73 RBI, 123 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR (8.1 DEF)
• Juan Soto: .273/.413/.533, 34 HR, 89 RBI, 165 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR (-13.7 DEF)
• Bo Bichette: .288/.337/.449, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 122 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR (4.1 DEF)
• Jorge Polanco: .248/.326/.438, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 116 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR (-6.0 DEF)
• Brett Baty: .247/.315/.420, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 108 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR (-4.9 DEF)
• Marcus Semien: .241/.314/.400, 22 HR, 77 RBI, 103 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR (5.6 DEF)
• Francisco Alvarez: .241/.320/.459, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 119 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR (1.5 DEF)
• Luis Robert Jr.: .232/.295/.405, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 95 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR (1.6 DEF)
• Carson Benge: .236/.314/.371, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 96 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR (-3.0 DEF)
• Mark Vientos: .248/.310/.457, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 115 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR (-9.1 DEF)
• Tyrone Taylor: .233/.286/.376, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 86 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR (-1.4 DEF)
• Luis Torrens: .239/.296/.386, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 93 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR (5.9 DEF)
• Ronny Mauricio: .246/.302/.410, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 98 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR (-1.8 DEF)

Total Projected 2026 Hitters fWAR: 27.9 fWAR

2025 Hitters Total fWAR (83-79 record): 29.0 fWAR

2024 Hitters Total fWAR (89-73 record): 25.3 fWAR

Observations

Look, projections are just numbers. At the end of the day, they mean nothing. However, Steamer’s projections for the 2026 Mets tell an interesting story. The thing that stands out the most (surprisingly) is Brett Baty’s numbers. With each new additional infielder the Mets signed, Baty’s playing time felt fleeting by the moment. After a breakout 2025 (where he notched career-highs in every category and became a 111 wRC+ player), a slight decline with less playing time is worrying. Especially after the Mets struggled to give Vientos consistent reps after his breakout in 2024.

Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr.’s projections don’t look as pretty as the Mets would like them to be (especially Polanco’s), but consistency and health are key for the two players.

Soto, Lindor and Bichette look as advertised from previous seasons. It’d be nice to see Soto hit higher for average (he hit .288 in 2024 with the Yankees), but the one-two-three threat of this trio is one to look forward to as a Mets fan.

Projecting top prospects is always tricky, especially with Benge. He can either take off like Nick Kurtz did upon his call-up, or find a similar struggle to players like Matt Shaw and Kristian Campbell in recent years.

The Mets are likely done adding to their roster. That said, Stearns and company were adamant about putting a new roster together after the previous one failed to win the franchise a championship. The 2024 Mets (and their 25.3 fWAR) were a few games shy of the World Series. The 2025 Mets and their 29.9 fWAR failed to make the playoffs. What will become of these 2026 Mets?

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