Free Agent Profile: Nathaniel Lowe, 1B
Position: 1B B/T: L/R
Age: 30 (7/7/1995)
2025 Traditional Stats: 609 PA, .228/.307/.381/.689, 123 H, 18 HR, 84 RBI
2025 Advanced Stats: 91 wRC+, 26.1% K%, 10.2% BB%, .285 BABiP, .303 xwOBA, -0.4 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR, -4 DRS (1B), -5 OAA (1B)
Rundown
Across four seasons with the Texas Rangers, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe grew into a plus defender, put up a 27 homer season, and slashed .274/.359/.432 for a .791 OPS and 123 WRC+. After the 2024 season, Lowe was traded to the Washington Nationals for reliever Robert Garcia and went on to post the worst numbers of his career in Washington, slashing .216/.292/.373 across 119 games for a .689 OPS and 91 WRC+. He did bounce back in Boston across his last 34 games, putting up a slash of .280/.370/.420 for a .790 OPS and 114 WRC+, but that was not enough to prevent them from non-tendering him after the season concluded. After being designated for assignment by the Nationals and non-tendered by the Red Sox, Lowe is a free agent and will likely look to sign a one-year deal to reset his value.
So, what led to his struggles in 2025? Lowe has not put huge power numbers since his 2022 season, but his power took a big step backward in 2025. Without top-end power, Lowe has relied on his plate discipline and contact rates for success. The biggest red flag from 2024 to 2025 is his drop in his zone-contact rate, going from 87.7% (79th percentile) to 82.6% (42nd percentile).
While his power metrics stayed roughly around league average, he made less contact in the zone, had more swing and miss, and walked less. Meanwhile, he went from a plus-rated defender to a 24th percentile defender per fielding run value at -4.
Lowe did make some changes with the Red Sox that could be a sign that he could bounce back in 2026.
Per Robert Orr, Lowe took fewer hittable pitches during his time in Boston than he did in Washington. He also increased his SEAGER, a measure of how well a player attacks good pitches to hit and lays off bad ones, from 9.9 to 21, which is in line with players like Matt Chapman and Dansby Swanson. This level of aggression and laying off pitches was more in line with his performance in Texas.
Contract
MLB Trade Rumors did not project a contract for Nathaniel Lowe, but they did project his final year of arbitration to come in at around $13.5 million. He will likely earn less than that on a one-year deal or may even have to take a minor league deal with a non-roster invite to spring training.
Recommendation: Worth Checking In
Lowe being a fit for this team requires a lot of “ifs” to happen first.
It was reported by Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that the Mets would like a right-handed bat that could potentially play first base. Lowe does not fit that bill.
But if the Mets sign a right-handed bat in the outfield, they may consider a left-handed bat at first base. The Mets would also need to have faith that in 2026, he will look more like he did in Boston or Texas than in Washington. The Mets would also need him to be closer to his defensive numbers from 2023 and 2024 than 2025.
But depending on how the rest of the roster shakes out, he could be worth a flyer even if it is just as a non-roster invite to spring training.
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