Reviewing our 2025 Phillies over/unders
As the year comes to a close, let’s revisit our preseason predictions.
On Opening Day, Phillies Nation published a list of 2025 over/unders, from win total to Kyle Schwarber’s starts in the field.
Congrats to our own Ty Daubert for hitting on five of our nine 2025 over/unders.
Let’s see how we did:
Wins: O/U 90.5 – Phillies Win Total: 96
Destiny: Under
Ty: Over
Nathan: Over
Bailey: Over
The bookies once again underestimated the Phillies. Most sportsbooks and projection systems had the Phillies with a win total in the high 80s/low 90s. Few could have predicted the NL East being as bad as it was, with the Braves finishing ten games below .500 and the Mets missing the postseason by one game. The Phillies, led by one of the best rotations in the sport, finished with the second-highest win total among National League clubs.
Andrew Painter First Start Date: O/U (Before/After) First Game after All-Star Break – Painter never debuted
Destiny: Under
Ty: Over
Nathan: Over
Bailey: Under
Technically the over hits here. Andrew Painter debuting at some point last season seemed like a foregone conclusion. Dave Dombrowski’s “Julyish” timeline gave us all confidence. There were unexpected bumps in the road and the Phillies decided to keep him in Triple-A for a full year. They will head into 2026 with measured expectations for Painter.
J.T. Realmuto Games Started at Catcher: O/U 119.5 – Realmuto made 132 starts at C
Destiny: Over
Ty: Under
Nathan: Under
Bailey: Under
I’ll believe in a lesser workload for Realmuto when I see it. Some of the spring training talking points were ridiculous. Left field? I don’t think he shagged a single fly ball. As long as he’s employed as a No. 1 catcher, Realmuto will aim to start well over 120 games behind the plate. It’s impressive since many believed that he would have to move off of the position at some point during his five-year contract with the Phillies.
Brandon Marsh Starts vs. Left-Handed Starter: O/U 30.5 – Marsh started 10 games against LH starter
Destiny: Under
Ty: Under
Nathan: Over
Bailey: Over
I understand my thinking for setting the line as high as I did, but maybe I should have anticipated the Phillies leaning even more into platoons. That and Brandon Marsh struggling against lefties the way that he did. The Phillies saw a left-handed starting pitcher 48 times in 2025. Marsh started in only 10 of those games.
Max Kepler Plate Appearances O/U: 456.5 – Kepler accumulated 474 plate appearances
Destiny: Over
Ty: Over
Nathan: Over
Bailey: Under
Hitting the over here took a miracle. Max Kepler looked like a goner after the trade deadline, but the Phillies acquired Harrison Bader to play center field and the Phillies demoted Kepler to a glorified fourth outfield role. He played well enough to eventually earn his way into a platoon with Nick Castellanos in right. Kepler also stayed off the injured list through a full season for the first time since 2019.
Total Number of Starting Pitchers Used (No Openers): O/U 9.5 – The Phillies used eight starters.
Destiny: Over
Ty: Under
Nathan: Over
Bailey: Over
The Phillies used eight starters (openers don’t count) in 2025: Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Mick Abel and Walker Buehler. The number remaining as low as it does year-to-year is a testament to how few are better than the Phillies at keeping their starters healthy.
Kyle Schwarber Starts in the Field: O/U 13.5 – Schwarber made eight starts in the field.
Destiny: Over
Ty: Over
Nathan: Under
Bailey: Under
Here’s another pointless spring training storyline. The Phillies really pushed the idea of Schwarber getting some reps at first base in 2025. That never happened. He instead made eight starts in left field. The Phillies could look to experiment again with Schwarber at first this spring, but don’t count on it.
Garrett Stubbs First Game Played in Majors: O/U (Before/After) June 15 – Stubbs played his first game in the majors on Sept. 1.
Destiny: Under
Ty: Under
Nathan: Under
Bailey: Over
Both Realmuto and Rafael Marchan stayed healthy enough for Garrett Stubbs to spend most of the season in Triple-A. The Phillies added him to the major league club when rosters expanded in September. Stubbs walking up to the plate to take his first and only major league at-bat of the season at Citizens Bank Park during the final day of the regular season was a cool moment.