What Early Fangraphs’ Projections Say About The 2026 Mets

Fangraphs already has wins above replacement (WAR) projections available. The baseball statistic website breaks these projections down position-by-position and team-by-team. In doing so, it gives you a good grasp on where teams around the league currently sit.

Of course, teams like the New York Mets are likely still a ways away from where the roster will be Opening Day. However, this still gives you a good idea where the roster currently is and what future additions may be warranted.

Currently, overall, the Mets have the sixth-highest overall projected WAR. Making this up is a fourth-ranked projected position player WAR and 16th-ranked projecting pitching WAR. Their overall ranking of sixth sits third in the National League behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves. The 43.4 projections narrowly edges the Philadelphia Phillies (43.1) for second in the National League East.

As mentioned, WAR projections are much higher on the Mets’ position players rather than the pitching. The Mets rank inside the top-10 in projected WAR at the following positions: catcher, second base, shortstop and right field. They are right outside the-top 10 in first base and third base projected WAR as well.

The problematic spots for the Mets make up two-thirds of their outfield. The Mets’ projected left fielder WAR ranks 27th and center field projected WAR ranks 26th. In every other position the team ranks 12th-or-better. It does not appears the Mets are very far off in terms of their position player group.

As for the pitching group, as mentioned, the Mets currently check in at No. 16 in total WAR projections for that group. Making that figure up is a 17th-ranked starting pitcher projected WAR and 13th-ranked relief pitcher projected WAR. Pitching appears to need much more work than the position player group does.

Final Thoughts 

A lot has been made of the Mets’ up-and-down offseason which has seen president of baseball operations David Stearns ship out several of the team’s key contributors from seasons past. The team also has not made a ton of additions to potentially replace that shipped-out production. However, based off early projections, the Mets actually may not be too far off where they need to be.

The Mets, as far as projected WAR goes, are still valued as one of the top-six teams in the league. Specifically, they project to have a very strong position player group with a pitching staff that grades out around league average. At the end of the day, projections are just that. However, it appears that a lot of the noise around the Mets’, largely created by the media, has been overblown.

What these projections can also tell you is the Mets need to make a few more additions. Specifically, help in the outfield with, say, a Luis Robert Jr. or Cody Bellinger, as well as a No. 2-level type starting pitcher. Adding just two more pieces would help round the unit out and further strengthen these already strong preseason projections.

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