Breaking Down Newest Met Luke Weaver
On Wednesday, the Mets agreed with Luke Weaver to a two-year, $22 million contract. Originally drafted in the first round by the Cardinals in 2014, Weaver bounced around as a middling starter, appearing for multiple teams before being converted to a reliever by the Yankees in 2023. Across parts of three seasons in the Bronx, Weaver posted a 3.22 ERA with a 126 ERA+ and struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings. Over that stretch, he ranked 16th among relievers in K-BB% (tied with Andrés Muñoz and just ahead of Jhoan Duran), had one of the lowest WHIPs (.97), and compiled the 12th most holds in MLB (43). He was a key piece in the Yankees’ run to the World Series in 2024 and was expected to form a formidable duo with teammate again, Devin Williams, in 2026. While Weaver’s 2025 overall numbers weren’t as strong as in 2024, he still finished the year with a respectable 3.62 ERA.
Weaver started the 2025 season exceptionally well. Through the end of May, he posted a 1.05 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, and an astonishing 98.6% strand rate. That remarkable strand rate helped him record eight saves and six holds, despite striking out only 8.44 batters per nine innings. In early June, he suffered a strained hamstring. After the injury, the rest of his season saw him post a 5.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 4.42 FIP with a 63.5% LOB%. Notably, Weaver returned from the injury after just 17 days on the IL, despite an initial diagnosis of four to six weeks. In his first five innings back, he gave up four home runs (he allowed 10 all season) and eight earned runs for a 13.50 ERA. After a blown save against the Mets (on a Jeff McNeil two-run home run), he was given four days off. Those appearances aside, Weaver had a 2.73 ERA in 59 2/3 innings, which is more like the pitcher he was expected to be.
When digging in a little deeper into Weaver’s 2025, a number of points are important to mention. The first is that prior to injury, Weaver’s fastball velocity was 94.4 mph (down from 2024, where he sat at 95.8) with 19.3 inches of IVB (induced vertical break) and 7.0 inches of HB (horizontal break). His Stuff+ grade on the fastball was 102 (100 is league average), even with the reduced velocity. Weaver’s changeup sat at 87.1 mph and featured 14.1 inches of HB and -7.1 VAA, creating strong separation (VAA is vertical approach angle and measures how much a ball drops, with closer to zero being bad for offspeed pitches). His Stuff+ grade varies on the site, but was a 95 on Fangraphs. What made Weaver elite was his control; he had a 107 Location+ prior to injury, which, combined with his change-up that induces chase, made him very successful.
Post-injury, the fastball velocity ticked back up to 95.5 mph. However, its IVB dropped to 18.8 inches, and HB fell to 6.7 inches, meaning whatever gains Weaver saw in velocity were negated by his lesser movement. Additionally, his overall Pitch+ went down from 105 to 95. This was the result of poor location. His zone rate on the fastball dropped from 58% to 53.4% and his whiff rate fell from 26.3% to 23.1%. Weaver’s changeup also lost some of its effectiveness. After returning from the IL, the changeup also had an uptick in velocity and averaged 88.6 mph with slightly less vertical -6.9 VAA. His zone rate on the changeup also dropped from 41.7% to 37.6% and his Stuff+ number dropped from 95 to 88. However, those numbers were deeply impacted by his stretch from June 20 to July 4. His Location+ in those five innings was 89. After his four-day reset, his Location+ was 96 the rest of the year, down from before the injury, but not as poor as during that stretch directly after the injury.
Despite these mid-season struggles, Weaver’s underlying numbers in 2025 were stronger than in 2024. His xERA went from 3.31 to 2.96, his walk rate went down from 7.9% in ‘24 to 7.6% in ‘25, his opponent xBA went down from .200 to .195, and his chase rate went up from 31.9% to 32.8% in 2025. Specifically, his fastball rated better in 2025. The average exit velocity dropped from 92.5 in ’24 to 90.8 average in ’25, and his opponent xSLG went from .395 in 2024 to. .375 in 2025. However, despite the weaker contact surrendered, Weaver saw worse results against the fastball. He had a .424 opponent SLG in 2025 and a .333 opponent SLG against the fastball in 2024. With better batted ball fortune, Weaver should see better results in 2026.
Weaver is projected to replace Reed Garrett as the “jack-of-all-trades” reliever for the Mets, handling the closing duties, the setup role, multi-inning appearances, and situations with inherited runners. Weaver is uniquely equipped to handle such a wide range of tasks. Over the last two seasons, he’s thrown 148.2 innings (third most among relievers), pitched on back-to-back days 18 times, and thrown more than an inning 46 times, demonstrating durability and versatility.
When looking at the bullpen, the combination of Weaver and Williams will make $73 million total. The two are projected to have a 1.7 fWAR in 2026 (although subject to change when the signing is official), the same as Edwin Díaz is projected for 2026. Ultimately, this is a sound signing and should allow the Mets to explore a trade for one of San Diego’s many relievers as well as continue to search for a front-end starting pitcher and a big bat. At his best, Weaver is a strike-thrower with quality stuff and elite control, making him one of the more effective relievers in the game.
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