Trade Profile: Willson Contreras, 1B

Willson Contreras

Position: 1B B/T: R/R

Age: 33 (5/13/1992)

2025 Traditional Stats: 563 PA, .257/.344/.447/.791, 126 H, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 44 BB, 142 SO

2025 Advanced Stats: 123 wRC+ 25.2% SO%, 7.8% BB%, .358 xwOBA, 2.8 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR, 6 OAA

After losing Pete Alonso to the Baltimore Orioles, the Mets are now in search of a first baseman and a right-handed bat. David Stearns mentioned that the team would be in the market to add a right-handed bat to the roster, and that was before Alonso had signed with the Orioles. When canvassing the free agent market, the best pure offensive bat from the right side is probably Marcell Ozuna. Given his age, off-the-field issues, and poor 2025, it is hard to see the Mets exploring the Ozuna market. The other potential option is old friend Harrison Bader, but given the reports that Bader is seeking a three-year deal, it is unlikely the Mets will be interested in his market either.

That leaves the trade market, and once again, options are limited. However, on late Wednesday night, two separate St. Louis Cardinals reporters stated publicly that the Mets had engaged the Cardinals in talks around Willson Contreras. Contreras is coming off a strong 2025 season, where he had 20 home runs and had a 123 WRC+. The appeal of Contreras and his fit with this Mets team is obvious. Contreras is a well above average hitter (127 WRC+ in three years as a Cardinal), has a very reasonable two years and $36.5 million remaining on his contract (there is a team option for $17.5 in 2028 or a $5 buyout so likely $41.5 over two years) and graded out as the third best defensive first baseman according to OAA in 2025. Outside of him entering his age-34 season, Contreras is an ideal fit for this Mets team because he checks a lot of the boxes David Stearns is looking to check when acquiring a player.

Defensive Outlook 

By now, David Stearns and run prevention are synonymous with each other, and his early decisions, specifically letting Pete Alonso walk and trading away a declining Brandon Nimmo for a still elite defender in Marcus Semien, have made it clear the Mets are being intentional about improving their defense. The best available defensive first baseman is Ty France (first in OAA 10, and FRV 7); however, given his poor offensive profile, the next best available defensive first baseman is Contreras. He finished third in OAA (6) and third in FRV (4). In contrast, Pete Alonso was -9 in OAA and -8 in FRV. The other skill that Contreras has over Alonso is his well-above-average arm strength. In 2025, Contreras was in the 76th percentile in arm strength, and Alonso was in the fifth percentile. Contreras was also significantly better at converting routine plays into outs. rPM (plus/minus runs saved above average) is another advanced fielding stat that measures how successful an individual player is at converting outs. In 2025, Contreras was sixth in the MLB among 1B with a +2 rPM, and Alonso was once again last in this metric with a -10.

This defensive improvement has a multifactorial impact on the Mets. In the last two months of the season (when the Mets really collapsed), the largest and third-largest deltas between FIP and ERA were Sean Manaea and David Peterson. While neither was good in the second half (7.74 and 7.06 ERAs) both pitched better than the results suggest. Peterson had a 4.29 SIERRA, and Manaea had a 3.17 SIERRA (good for 14th in MLB post trade deadline). I am not blaming Alonso solely for their struggles, but among qualified players, he was the worst defensive infielder in the MLB from the trade deadline until the end of the season. Alonso had a -6 FRV in this stretch, and no other Met infielder was worse than -1. By upgrading with Contreras, the Mets’ pitching can improve even without outside reinforcements.

Offensive Outlook

In the aftermath of losing Alonso, much of the discourse has been centered around “replacing Alonso’s production,” and while Contreras doesn’t put up the traditional stats Alonso does, their offensive metrics are very similar. Over the last three seasons, Alonso had a 130 WRC+. Since joining the Cardinals, Contreras has had a 127 WRC+. When digging deeper, there is reason to believe that Contreras is not a player in decline. Contreras had an expected slash line of .(260/.358/.481) in 2025 but had an actual slash line of .257/.344/.447. With some better batted ball luck and hitting with more men on base (presumably behind Juan Soto), Contreras should be in line for a big 2026.

Perhaps the most encouraging stat for Contreras in 2025 was his 95th percentile average bat speed (76 MPH). His ability to maintain elite bat speed into his thirties is really encouraging and should calm fears of decline in performance. His age alone should not be an impediment for the Mets because his bat speed and age are similar to Kyle Schwarber, whom the Mets offered a three-year $120 million contract before he returned to the Phillies.

The other area of his offensive profile that is intriguing is his base running. Contreras, a converted catcher, improved his average sprint speed in 2025. He went from the 43rd percentile in 2024 to the 49th percentile in 2025. His average speed went up as well, 27.5 in 2025 from 27.1 in 2024. As a baserunner, Contreras was a -2 BsR (base running above average, which measures taking extra bases and stolen bases). While still below average, that number was much better than the -5.4 BsR Alonso had in 2025. When looking at his offensive profile and his better base running, Contreras is a more well-rounded player than Alonso, a profile David Stearns seems to be targeting.

The one concern with Contreras’s offensive profile is his strikeout percentage, but he has always been a high strikeout guy (24.2% for his career), and his strikeout rate actually went down in 2025 (26.8% to 25.2%). Ultimately, while Contreras likely won’t match the 38 home runs or 126 RBI, his offensive profile is strong and likely won’t be a big drop off from Pete’s production.

Trade Package

Contreras has two years and $36.5 million remaining on his five-year $87.5 million contract he signed with the Cardinals. The contract has a team option for 2028, but if the option is declined, it triggers a $5 million buyout. Essentially, Contreras has two years and $41.5 million left on his deal. Contreras also has a full no-trade clause and has been hesitant to waive it to this point. However, reports late Wednesday not only connected the Mets to Contreras but made it clear Contreras would waive his no-trade clause to come to the Mets. By having a no-trade clause, Contreras’ market value should not be overly robust, which should lower the return package.

Mets receive:
Willson Contreras

Cardinals receive:
OF Nick Morabito
LHP Zach Thornton

Conclusion

After losing Pete Alonso, the Mets have big shoes to fill, and acquiring Willson Contreras to replace him is a really strong pivot. His relatively affordable contract, combined with the short commitment as well as his strong defensive metrics, make him an ideal candidate for the Mets. While not the same run producer, Contreras’s more well-rounded game aligns with David Stearns’ vision and should not be overly expensive in prospect capital or dollars and cents. Contreras, as a first step in reshaping the Mets roster, would be a really strong move.

 

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