If the Phillies trade a lefty reliever, which candidate would make the most sense?

Of all the talk about how the Phillies might shake things up this offseason, among the more surprising reports — like this one, from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb — is that the team might be willing to trade one of its lefty relievers.

That’s not to suggest it’s a terrible idea — they could capitalize on a weak free-agent market. But Tanner Banks and Matt Strahm were central parts of a bullpen that had its issues in 2025 even after acquiring Jhoan Duran, and José Alvarado figures to occupy a similar role next year with a PED suspension behind him.

So if the Phillies do go that route and trade one of the lefties in their relief corps — which should it be? And who should they prioritize keeping?

The deal that would perhaps make the least sense is one of Alvarado. In general, the Phillies’ bullpen didn’t struggle this year with walks — their walk rate ranked 11th among MLB bullpens; they threw a higher percentage of pitches inside the strike zone than every bullpen except the Mariners’.

What they struggled with was swing-and-miss. Their 26.9% chase rate was 25th among MLB bullpens. Their zone contact rate (how often a batter misses when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone) was 24th. Their overall contact rate allowed was 26th.

Trading Alvarado — who notoriously struggles to find the zone at times, but is probably the Phillies’ best bet for a strikeout when they need one — would be to reduce some of the very little swing-and-miss ability they have in the bullpen, while perhaps bolstering the strike-throwing ability that they didn’t really lack in 2025. Plus, it’s conceivable that Alvarado’s return would be among the lowest of the trio, after somewhat of a lost season due to the aforementioned suspension and the highest 2026 salary ($9 million) of the group. 

That would leave Banks and Strahm as perhaps the two most sensible candidates for a lefty reliever trade this offseason. 

Banks is still under club control for three more seasons, and they likely won’t be expensive ones. He’s projected to earn a bit more than $1 million next season in his first year of salary arbitration. The Phillies may be selling high on Banks if they shop him this winter after a career-best campaign that saw him post a 3.07 ERA over 67 ⅓ innings with a 5.08 strikeout-to-walk ratio and the sixth-lowest walk rate among qualified MLB relievers. 

But given all that, was Banks too important to the Phillies’ 2025 puzzle to trade him in the name of saving a few million dollars? He allowed a .175/.213/.243 slash against lefties this year and stranded 20 of 32 inherited runners despite being summoned several times in suboptimal situations — like the three times in the second half he inherited the bases loaded (twice with no outs) and allowed just two of those nine runners to score. 

That role — lefty specialist, escape artist — is valuable, especially for a group whose biggest flaws are the middle innings and finding some way to get the ball to Duran. Yet after the season he had and the contract he’s on, the Phillies could get a healthy amount of interest in the 34-year-old.

Strahm might offer the best balance of savings and return, given the track record (2.71 ERA in his three years as a Phillie) and contract ($7.5 million next season). That, of course, would come at a cost, too. 

Strahm has been a reverse-splits savant the last couple seasons (.196/.265/.320 against righties last year, and even better the year before) — and the Phillies’ biggest weakness in the bullpen is the lack of right-handed bridges to Duran. If Strahm can get righties out the way he has the last couple seasons, perhaps there’s not as big a hole to fill.

He may also benefit even further from some normalization next season. Strahm’s 59% fly ball rate and 21.2% ground ball rate this year were the third-highest and lowest, respectively, figures among MLB relievers. That’s been his profile for the last several years, but even still, it was especially pronounced. Strahm also had a 93rd percentile chase rate among relievers, so trading him would give the Phillies even more work to do in that regard. 

The short answer: If the Phillies are going to trade a lefty reliever, there’s not an obvious candidate. Trading Alvarado might cause more problems than it solves. Banks and Strahm might each have too much value to the Phillies given their specific bullpen composition.

But specifically with regard to lefty relievers, the Phillies are dealing from a position of strength. It would be unwise not to listen and see what’s out there.