Free Agent Profile: Devin Williams, RP

Devin Williams

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Age: 31 (09/21/1994)

2025 Traditional Stats: 67 G, 29 GF, 15 HLD, 18 SV, 4 BS, 62 IP, 4-6, 4.79 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, 90 SO, 25 BB

2025 Advanced Stats: 85 ERA+, 34.7% SO%, 9.7% BB%, 3.07 xERA, 2.68 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, -0.3 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR

Rundown

Milwaukee

A two-time All-Star closer and two-time Hoffman Reliever of The Year, Devin Williams was drafted by the Brewers in 2013 with the No. 54 overall pick. Coming out of high school, Williams was originally drafted as a starting pitcher. He found moderate success over the course of his first four professional years as a hybrid starter and reliever in the minors. However, as many pitchers do, Williams underwent Tommy John Surgery and missed the 2017 season while recovering. Only after one last failed effort to become a starter in 2018 (14 GS, 34 IP, 5.82 ERA, 1.824 WHIP) did Williams finally transition to the bullpen full-time in 2019.

Williams made his MLB debut on August 7, 2019 against the Pirates and went on to pitch twelve more innings in 2019 with an ERA just under four. For the remainder of his Brewers career from 2020-2024, Williams dominated the league: 222 innings, 1.70 ERA, 111 H, 361 SO, 0.977 WHIP, 4.5 H/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 14.6 SO/9

He appeared in 228 games, finished 96 of them, and saved 68. Williams racked up a 7.6 fWAR over those five years, second among all relievers only to Emmanuel Clase’s 8.5 fWAR. Through the first two-and-a-half of those years, he was the setup man to another top reliever in Josh Hader, piling up 58 holds in that span. Once Hader was dealt at the deadline in 2022, Williams became the full-time closer for the remainder of his time in Milwaukee.

After missing much of the first four months of the season in 2024 due to a stress fracture in his back, Williams came back for the stretch run and accumulated a 1.4 bWAR over 21 2/3 innings. Williams’ excellence during the stretch run helped the Brewers secure the National League Central Division to earn a Wild Card Series matchup with the sixth-seeded New York Mets.

Enter: Pete Alonso. 

As baseball fans know, with radio play-by-play announcer Howie Rose’s call heard ‘round the world, Pete sent Williams and the Brew Crew packing with an exhilarating ninth inning four-run comeback in a winner-take-all game three. One can only speculate the toll that performance took on Williams, who found himself traded to the Yankees as he entered his final year of club control. 

The Bronx

2025 was the first time Williams truly struggled since arriving to the bigs. He posted a career-worst ERA, his worst K/9 and H/9 rates since his rookie season, and his worst WHIP since 2021. He lost the closer role for the first time in his career on April 27, following an early stretch where he blew three games in ten appearances. From there, he rode a roller coaster into October, earning his job back in June, only to lose it again in early August. 

Williams finished 2025 in a setup role, and while he pitched fine in the postseason (4 innings, 3 hits, 2 walks, 0 runs, 4 strikeouts), it was ultimately not the year a player wants to have in their free agency year.

While 2025 was a far cry from Williams’ usual dominance, teams can do a lot worse than a 1.12 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 rate. 

But let’s take a look under the hood and compare some key metrics from Baseball Savant from 2025 to his numbers from 2022 and 2023, his most successful and healthy seasons:

Metric	2022 (Percentile)	2023 (Percentile)	2025 (Percentile)
xERA	2.04 (99)	2.67 (98)	3.09 (85)
xBA	.147 (100)	.171 (99)	.195 (96)
Avg Exit Velo	84.3 (99)	85.9 (94)	89.5 (44)
Whiff Rate	40.8 (99)	41.8 (99)	37.7 (99)
Barrel Rate	0.9 (100)	7.0 (65)	9.3 (32)
Hard-Hit Rate	27.0 (99)	29.6 (96)	35.7 (85)
xSLG	.198 (100)	.284 (99)	.314 (94)

Naturally, there was a regression from his dominance, but the drop is not as pronounced as one would expect given his glaring ERA. It can also be surmised that his most glaring issue was his barrel rate increasing so significantly, which of course had a domino effect on other metrics. 

Contract

Moving forward, it’s reasonable to project Williams as a bounce back candidate in 2026. Even if his metrics were to remain the same, the difference between his ERA and xERA suggests he could still be capabale of shutting the door late in games. Additionally, Williams’ trademark ‘Airbender’ changeup remains one of baseball’s most unhittable pitches when he’s on.

Williams’ contract projections have a large variance, though MLB Trade Rumors believes he’ll land a four-year contract worth $65 million ($16.25M AAV).

There’s almost always uncertainty around relievers, especially ones coming off a down year with elite peripherals. Given Williams’ long history of dominance, a one year prove-it deal could also make sense for him in 2026. A player of his pedigree following a triumphant season would increase his value substantially on the market, but he could also land a multi-year deal given his track record.

Recommendation: Worth Checking In

The Mets brass attempted to assemble a super pen at the deadline in 2025. While that endeavor didn’t work out, it doesn’t mean the philosophy was without merit. Williams could be a fit in Queens with or without Edwin Díaz returning. However, given Williams’ performance in 2025, returning both relievers and slotting Williams into a setup role would be the most ideal route for him to become a Met. This way, Williams could handle closing duties if Díaz is unavailable and could recoup his value in a lower-leverage role. Williams’ movement-heavy approach could pair well with Díaz’s velocity-driven dominance. The two could very well form the most formidable later-innings combination in baseball.

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