Why an elite Bryce Harper season in 2026 starts with less chasing

It’s a problem that has followed Bryce Harper for years. 

For the third year in a row, Harper is at the top of the league leaderboard in pitches seen outside of the strike zone. 

Pitches seen outside the strike zone in 2025 (min. 1,500 total pitches)

1. Bryce Harper – 57%
2. Oneil Cruz – 55.3%
3. Yanier Diaz – 55.3%
4. José Altuve – 54.9%
5. Nick Castellanos – 54.2%
6. Cal Raleigh – 53.9%
7. Salvador Perez – 53.6%
8. Javier Báez – 53.6%
9. Pete-Crow Armstrong – 53.5%
10. Jasson Domínguez – 53.4% 

He knows it. It’s been a source of frustration. 

For four years in a row, Harper has also had a chase rate (percentage of swings outside of the strike zone) well below league average. He ranked in the 11th percentile among major league hitters in chase rate in 2025, according to Baseball Savant. Harper was in the 19th percentile the previous season and 21st in 2023. 

If Harper wants to see more pitches in the strike zone, it doesn’t start with more protection. It starts with more patience. 

Chasing has been a popular topic of conversation over the last few years. The Phillies as a team in 2025 finished with the same chase rate they had in 2024: 30.3%. They also saw the least amount of pitches in the strike zone among the 30 teams at 48.9%. For context, the Brewers saw the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone at 51.8%. Milwaukee also had the lowest team-wide chase rate in the majors at 25.5%. 

Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner have been at the center of the conversation. Castellanos, who will likely be off the team in a matter of weeks, has had a chase rate above 40% in two of the last three seasons. He is well known as one of the worst chasers in baseball. Turner has lowered his chase rate in each of the last two seasons. 

While Turner decreased his chase rate from 33.9% in 2024 to 31% in 2025, Harper has increased his from 33.4% in 2024 to 35.6% in 2025. 

Phillies Chase Rates in 2025 

1. Kyle Schwarber – 21.5% –  90th percentile 
2. Bryson Stott – 23.3% –  81st percentile 
3. Alec Bohm – 26.3% –  60th percentile 
4. Max Kepler – 26.6% —  58th percentile 

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5. Brandon Marsh – 29% –  42nd percentile 
6. Trea Turner – 31% –  30th percentile 
7. J.T. Realmuto – 32.3% –  22nd percentile 
8. Harrison Bader – 32.5% –  20th percentile 
9. Bryce Harper – 35.6% –  11th percentile 
10. Nick Castellanos – 40.9% –  3rd percentile 

Harper became ultra aggressive early in counts. He swung at the first pitch 53.8% of the time in 2025, by far the highest mark of his career. 

The swing decisions on first pitches haven’t been great. Harper in 2025 was second only to Castellanos in the league in total swings on first pitches outside of the strike zone.

Total Swings on First Pitches Outside of the Strike Zone in 2025

1. Nick Castellanos – 126
2. Bryce Harper – 116 
3. Jose Altuve – 110 
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong – 104 
5. Yanier Diaz – 91 

It’s a trend for Harper in recent years, but it became a more prevalent part of his game in 2025. He finished with the ninth-most swings outside of the strike zone (81) on first pitches in 2024 and third-most (88) in 2023. 

Among Phillies teammates, Harper, Castellanos and Edmundo Sosa were outliers when it came to chasing on the first pitch. 

What Percentage of Your First-Pitch Swings Were on Pitches Outside of the Strike Zone? 

1. Nick Castellanos – 37.8%
2. Edmundo Sosa – 37.4% 
3. Bryce Harper – 37.2%
4. Harrison Bader – 28% (full year) 
5. Otto Kemp – 25.8% 
6. Trea Turner – 24.9%
7. Kyle Schwarber – 23.7%
8. Max Kepler – 21%
9. Brandon Marsh – 20% 
10. Bryson Stott – 18.7% 
11. J.T. Realmuto – 18.5% 
12. Alec Bohm – 14.6%

But the numbers – a .406 batting average and a 1.162 OPS –  were really good when Harper puts those first pitches in play. The only Phillies with better numbers on balls in play in 0-0 counts in 2025 were Otto Kemp (1.653 OPS), Kyle Schwarber (1.414 OPS), Harrison Bader (1.320 OPS) and Bryson Stott (1.308 OPS). 

But a first-pitch swing only resulted in a ball in play less than a third of the time for Harper. In 215 plate appearances in which Harper swung at the first pitch and didn’t put the ball in play, he batted .221 with a .651 OPS. Just about every hitter in the league has much worse splits when behind in the count versus ahead, but those numbers matter more for an aggressive hitter like Harper who may find themselves behind early more often than they would like. 

Could an improved chase rate mean more pitches in the zone for Harper? It could only help. Schwarber in his four years with Philadelphia posed a similar threat in the Phillies order, but saw more pitches in the strike zone. That’s because Schwarber rarely chases. His 21.5% chase rate in 2025 ranked in the 90th percentile among major league hitters. Schwarber in 2025 saw a pitch in the strike zone 47.7% of the time compared to Harper’s 43%. 

Improvement in this area could be the difference between a solid Harper season and an MVP caliber one. Harper posted his best chase rate as a Phillie (24.8%) during his MVP year in 2021. 

Could the Phillies and Harper benefit from the addition of a big right-handed hitter who could theoretically provide more protection? Of course. Will it lead to Harper seeing more pitches in the strike zone? Of course not. 

Pitchers have zero incentive to come in the zone against this ultra-aggressive, chase-happy version of Harper. If he wants more pitches to hit, he’s going to have to earn them.