Free Agent Profile: Dylan Cease, SP
Dylan Cease
Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 29 (12/28/1995)
2025 Traditional Stats: 32 G, 168 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 215 SO, 71 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 94 ERA+, 29.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, 3.46 xERA, 3.56 FIP, 3.56 xFIP 3.4 fWAR/ 1.1 bWAR
Rundown
It was an odd season for Dylan Cease in 2025. He threw harder than ever (97.1 mp fastball velocity), had the highest K/9 among starting pitchers (11.9), and completed his fifth consecutive season of making at least 32 starts. Cease also finished with the 12th best xERA (3.46), which was tied with Minnesota’s Joe Ryan and Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta.
Cease’s SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA), which, unlike xFIP, accounts not just for home runs, walks, and hit‑batters but also the type of contact surrendered, park factors, and balls in play, ranked 13th in MLB at 3.58 (just ahead of Max Fried and just behind Ryan). And yet, the conventional numbers suggest a below‑average season. As evident by an ERA+ of 94 (6% worse than league average), an uptick in walks (3.8 BB/9, up from 3.1 the previous year), and more home runs allowed (1.13 HR/9, up from 0.87).
Digging deeper, several things stand out. Cease actually surrendered less hard contact: 38.4% in 2024 down to 37.4% in 2025. His LOB% (Left On Base %) was nearly static, 69.4% in 2024 versus 69% in 2025, and his barrel rate remained basically unchanged (8.5% in 2024 versus 8.6% in 2025).
A couple of numbers could help explain Cease’s poor counting stats in 2025. For starters, Cease had a .320 BABIP in 2025, up from .295 career BABIP. The elevated BABIP contributed to his inflated WHIP (1.327 in 2025 versus 1.067 in 2024). While some of the poor outcomes are clearly bad luck, there were execution issues. Specifically, an increased walk rate as well as slight declines in LOB% and barrel rate contributed to worse results.
The second area that contributed to Cease’s struggles were his results with runners on base. In 2025, Dylan Cease had a 9.35 ERA with a .367 BABIP. However, Cease had a 3.55 FIP and a 3.54 xFIP (11.29 K/9). His luck on balls being put in play with runners on was extremely troublesome.
When looking at his track record, from 2021 through 2024, Cease had a 7.20 ERA with runners on base but had a 3.84 xFIP and a .291 BABIP. For context, the 7.20 ERA with runners on over that stretch is league average and Cease is ahead of Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, MacKenzie Gore, and Hunter Greene.
If Cease can improve his outcomes with runners on base (and perhaps rehabilitate the BABIP/luck component), his full‑season numbers could look a lot more like his very strong 2024 campaign than the one he posted in 2025. There are a number of paths for Cease to take to improve his results. The first idea is simply pitch the same he did in 2025. Below are Cease’s expected stats in 2024 and 2025:
- 2024: 3.31 xERA/3.44 xFIP/3.46 SIERA
- 2025: 3.46 xERA/3.56 xFIP/3.58 SIERA
One area Cease could change in hopes of better results is to change his pitch usage. Cease threw his four-seam fastball and slider a combined 82.1% of the time in 2025. The xSLG against those pitches was .399 and .335, respectively. Continuing to rely heavily on those pitches should be the goal. However, his knuckle curve, despite being throw 8% of the time, had an xSLG of .507. Perhaps throwing more sweepers (3.5% in 2025 with a .359 xSLG ) and fewer curveballs could help Cease in 2026.
Contract
Given how early into the offseason it currently is, the only projection out on what Cease’s next deal could look like is via Sportstrac. They predict a six-year deal worth $158,544,942. This would translate to a $26,424,157 annual average value (AAV). That AAV would place Cease at 11th among starting pitchers.
Cease is coming off a deal that only carried a $13.75 million AAV, so a hefty increase is in the works.
Recommendation: Try To Sign
Based on how the Mets’ current rotation projects, president of baseball operations David Stearns should be very aggressive with trying to sign Cease. His durability and relative younger age (entering age 30) are things that should boost his value despite poor results in 2025. Signing a starting pitcher long‑term always carries risk, but you are buying elite strikeout stuff plus proven volume.
Cease, who has averaged 4.075 fWAR a year from 2022-2025 while throwing an average roughly 179 innings per season and a 114 ERA+, would instantly give the Mets a top-of-the-rotation starter they desperately need.
Concerns over his 2025 season are valid, but every shred of data points to extreme positive regression in 2026. The Mets should be at the front of the line among teams trying to vie for his services once the market officially opens in the coming weeks.
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