Free Agent Profile: Merrill Kelly, SP
Merrill Kelly, SP
Position: SP B/T: R/R
Player Data: Age: 37 (10/14/1988)
2025 Traditional Stats: 32 GS, 12-9 W-L, 184.0 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.114 WHIP, 167 K, 48 BB
2025 Advanced Stats: 117 ERA+, 22.3% K%, 6.4% BB%, 4.08 xERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.81 xFIP, 3.1 fWAR, 2.9 bWAR
Rundown
Merrill Kelly might have been born in Texas, but he considers himself an Arizona man through and through. He moved to Scottsdale, Arizona, during his high school years and made it his permanent residence. He was originally an eighth-round pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Tampa Bay Rays, and worked his way up through their system to Triple-A. After a few years in their minor league system, Kelly signed a contract with the SK Wyverns in the KBO.
His time in Korea proved to be fruitful, as his four-year tenure in the KBO was highlighted with a 2018 Korean Series victory for the Wyverns. Kelly started and secured the victory in Game 3 of that series en route to a 4-2 series win over the Doosan Bears. He started 118 games over his four years with the Wyverns, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 48-32 record.
His success in the KBO led to the Arizona Diamondbacks offering him a two-year deal in the 2018 offseason, and he went on to make his MLB debut in 2019. Although 2020 and 2024 were injury-shortened seasons for Kelly, he has made 172 starts over seven years with the D-Backs to the tune of a 3.77 ERA. His best work came during the 2022-2023 seasons, when he was worth 3.2 fWAR in both years, making 63 starts across the two seasons. He started 2025 in a similar fashion for the Diamondbacks in his age-36 season and looked to be on the way to another solid year. Kelly was traded to the Texas Rangers at the deadline for three prospects (Kohl Drake, Mitch Bratt, and David Hagaman), and he made 10 starts for them down the stretch, pitching to a 4.23 ERA over 55.1 IP. He finished the year with 3.1 fWAR, with a 12-9 record over 32 starts and 167 strikeouts in 184.0 innings pitched.
Kelly has long been looked at as a solid middle-of-the-rotation type of arm, succeeding with strong command over the years. His career K% of 22% speaks to the fact that he has never been a dominant, high-strikeout type of arm, and he has found success by keeping the ball in the park and a career 7.2% BB%. He has also been consistently available, as he has made 25+ starts in five of his seven years in MLB. His four postseason starts are of note, as he pitched a gem in the 2023 World Series and became the first player to earn a win in both the World Series and the Korean Series.
Contract
Kelly turned 37 in early October, and that positions him in a place where he may not be able to command a lengthy deal. Max Scherzer and Rich Hill are the only free agent starting pitchers in the past 10 years who were able to secure a guarantee past two years at this age, and they were only able to get three years at that. As mentioned above, Kelly was also traded at the deadline to the Rangers, which makes him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.
He was on the last year of a relatively team-friendly contract in 2025, where he made $7 million after the Diamondbacks exercised a team option, and he has never exceeded an AAV of $9 million in a year. He could command a two-year deal with an AAV of approximately $15 million, but do not be surprised if he provides a hometown discount to the Diamondbacks.
Recommendation: Worth A Look
Merrill Kelly has expressed his desire to stay in Arizona, and even after the trade, he was quoted as saying that he “talked to the front office tirelessly about being a D-back for life. That was really my plan, that was real. Coming home is very attractive, not only for me, but also for the family aspect of it.” While athletes are well-trained on saying the right things at the right time, one can understand the sincerity of the sentiment behind a player saying that he wants to stay with the only organization he has known in MLB. The Diamondbacks will be seeking rotation help in the offseason as well, so it seems as if a match may already be made there.
That being said, the 2025 Mets season was filled with pitching woes, as they set the record with 46 different pitchers in a single season. An objective of this offseason for the Mets will undoubtedly be to bolster their pitching ranks, though Kelly may not be in the realm of the players they target. David Stearns faces the tough task ahead of him of balancing veteran rotation depth to support the young names coming through the system, such as Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat. With expectations of contributions from Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Kodai Senga as well next year if they all stay on the team for the Opening Day roster, the Mets will have to get creative with how they decide to add to their rotation. Considering the relative stability of Kelly as a starter, there are certainly worse options they could pursue.
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