2025 Report Card: Griffin Canning, SP

Griffin Canning

Player Data: Age: 29 (5/11/1996) B/T: R/R

Primary Stats: 16 GS, 7-3, 3.77 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 76.1 IP, 70 SO, 35 BB

Advanced Stats: 107 ERA+, 21.3 K%, 10.7 BB%, 4.66 xERA, 4.04 FIP, 4.09 xFIP, 0.9 fWAR, 1.1 bWAR

Grade: B

2025 Review

It appeared as if president of baseball operations David Stearns and staff had made out with highway robbery. The Mets gave veteran starting pitcher Griffin Canning an one-year deal worth only $4.25 million in December of 2024. Canning was coming off a terrible season and the hope was this low-risk investment would see Canning develop into a pitcher that can be effective in the back half of the Mets’ rotation. It appeared this was exactly going to be the case until Canning went down with a ruptured Achilles tendon on June 26.

Up until the point of injury, Canning had a 3.77 ERA, which is the lowest of his career, to go along with 70 strikeouts and a 7-3 record. He was on pace to post by far his best season in the big leagues.

Up till that point, Canning’s best season came in 2023 when he posted a 4.32 ERA across 127 innings. He did have a season where he had a 3.99 ERA, however, it was only over a 56 1/3 inning sample size. Not to mention, in 2024, Canning owned the third-highest ERA in the majors among qualified pitchers at 5.19 despite making 32 appearances.

The 29-year-old was enduring a true breakout in 2025 prior to injury on a contract that was only paying him $4.25 million. He was providing terrific value to the Mets and their starting rotation that fell apart as the season went on.

With all that being said, despite the final numbers looking strong, it was certainly and up-and-down year prior to injury. Canning had his season ERA down to a 2.36 mark after his May 11 start against the Chicago Cubs. However, since that point, and leading up to his injury on June 26, the numbers were trending down as he allowed 21 earned runs over 34 1/3 innings (5.50 ERA). This also included a stretch where he allowed 13 earned runs over three starts.

A deeper dive into Canning’s numbers painted a pitcher who had been benefitting greatly from a high ground-ball rate (51.6%; 87th percentile) despite not striking out a ton of batters (21.4%; 41st percentile), allowing hard contact (5th percentile average exit velocity, 11th percentile hard-hit rate), and walking a decent number (10.4%; 16th percentile). It appeared that these cons to his game were catching up to him as regression was hitting prior to injury. His 4.66 xERA and 4.04 FIP both indicated that the 3.77 ERA was deceiving.

Regardless of the signs of regression, Canning was getting it done as a whole prior to injury. He was brought to New York as a low-risk investment and someone who would potential serve as a long-man in the bullpen. However, when injury struck to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas in the spring, Canning was given an opportunity to step into a rotation role and ran with it very well while only making $4.25 million. His injury was one of many factors that directly correlated to the fall of the Mets’ pitching staff as the season went along.

2026 Preview

When Canning ruptured his left Achilles tendon on June 26 his 2025 season immediately ended. An injury of that magnitude can also impact the beginning of his 2026 season.

With that being said, the Mets only signed Canning to a one-year deal during the 2024 offseason. So, he is not currently under contract with the club and is a free agent. Any deal Canning receives will likely once again be a prove-it deal as the now 29-year-old is coming off a serious injury and owns a 4.65 ERA despite the strong season he had with the Mets prior to going down.

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