Phillies NLDS bullpen preview: Trust ranking, roles, matchups to watch

The Phillies have their work cut out for them in handling the Dodgers’ starting rotation and lineup. One area in which they hold the advantage is the bullpen. 

That statement would’ve sounded absurd a week or two into April. And it’s still not a cavern separating the two, which both posted a 4.27 ERA in the regular season. But since Aug. 1, the Dodgers rank 21st — second-worst among playoff teams — in bullpen ERA at 4.34. The Phillies are 11th at 3.81. 

It’s an arbitrary cutoff date for the Dodgers, but not the Phillies, whose acquisition of Jhoan Duran changed everything.

But it’s no overpowering group. And stopping, or at least slowing, the Dodgers is a tall task. Here’s how much the Phillies should trust each reliever (based on our NLDS roster projection) to do so — along with each’s role for the best-of-five and a notable matchup to watch.

9 — Taijuan Walker

Walker will make the roster for length, which means he’d probably only pitch in a disaster or a dream. He ended the regular season with two scoreless relief outings but walked four in three innings. Before that, he had a 6.83 ERA in his final six starts. 

Role: Length — big deficit or bigger lead

Notable matchup: Miguel Rojas (3-for-25, 5 K career against Walker)

8 — Orion Kerkering

The Phillies need Kerkering to flip a switch in October, but it’s getting harder to believe it’ll happen. His average exit velocity allowed spiked up in September, and his whiff rate dropped (it wasn’t high before, anyway). After 21 consecutive clean innings for Kerkering, the Phillies gave him a dirty inning in eight of his final 19 outings. He allowed six of 11 inherited runners to score. 

Lefties have hit .253/.343/.396 against Kerkering this year. Hitters slugged .667 against his four-seamer in September, after .105 in August. They slugged .350 against the sweeper in September … and .800 in August. The Phillies avoided the Wild Card series for the second straight year, but they have a wild card on their hands in Kerkering. Until further notice, that might be generous. 

Role: Clean innings, mid-game, against the righty-heavy Hernández-Pages-Hernández-Rojas portion of the lineup 

Notable matchup: Kiké Hernández (.177/.188/.253 against breaking balls this season) 

7 — Aaron Nola

It’s hard to see how Nola fits into the Phillies’ NLDS picture; he’s in this ranking because he won’t be starting. His fourth-to-last start of the regular season was six shutout innings against the Mets. His last start: eight innings, two hits against the Twins. In between them, he allowed 10 runs.

But postseason baseball is weird and calls for more weirdness. Maybe the Phillies need to go to the bullpen in the second inning. Maybe they play an 18-inning game (there’s no zombie runner in the postseason). Nola factoring in out of the bullpen, and doing so successfully, would be quite the story. 

Role: Emergency outing in very early innings or multi-inning marathon appearance

Notable matchup: Max Muncy (4-for-24, 11 K career against Nola)

6 — Walker Buehler

Whatever Nola’s role in the NLDS, Buehler may occupy a similar one — but first, and slightly more aggressively. In this part of the bullpen, pedigree carries weight. Buehler has a 3.04 ERA in 19 postseason appearances. He closed out last year’s World Series in a tense Game 5. 

And he’s held his own in Philadelphia, at least by the numbers, with one run in 13 2/3 innings. It does come with six walks and just eight strikeouts. The Phillies have helped him bring way down the hard contact that helped sink his Boston stint. His chase rate is up. If the starters can’t give the Phillies length, there may be a spot.

Role: Emergency fireman outing in early innings, multi-inning marathon appearance

Notable matchup: Freddie Freeman (1-for-10, HR, 3 K career against Buehler)

5 — Tim Mayza

Mayza hit a rough patch in mid-September, but the overall numbers this year were solid from a platoon perspective: Lefties hit .200/.259/.240 against him. Under no circumstances can he face a righty (.293/.362/.512) in any meaningful spot, but with Matt Strahm (reverse-splits) and Tanner Banks likely the only other lefties in the Phillies’ bullpen, there’ll be a role for good ole’ fashioned LOOGY.

That aforementioned rough patch was the only time this year Mayza was prone to free passes: He walked four across three straight outings and one in his other 12. He hasn’t yet entered a dirty inning as a Phillie. The bet here is that that changes.

Role: Early-inning, one-out escape artist against a lefty not named Shohei.

Notable matchup: Freddie Freeman, whose .231 average against sliders and .400 slug against sinkers were among his lowest pitch-type numbers this regular season

4 — David Robertson 

The gap is here — between Mayza and Robertson. Ideally, the Phillies would navigate this series with their three starters, top two righty relievers and top two lefty relievers, save for games that spiral. 

Robertson’s first month in this stint as a Phillie (one run, 12 strikeouts, three walks in 7 2/3 innings) was certainly better than his second (seven earned runs, 10 strikeouts, five walks in 10 innings). It doesn’t seem like an age thing, though: His velocity was up in September. He just threw fewer strikes with his knucklecurve and allowed harder contact with his cutter.

Still, Robertson stranded the zombie runner for a key win in L.A. on Sept. 15. He’ll feature prominently in this NLDS, perhaps in a similar situation. He, like Buehler, has a 3.04 postseason ERA, in 42 games.

Role: Sixth or seventh inning, righties in bottom half of Dodgers lineup

Notable matchup: Teoscar Hernández, whose worst pitch types in 2025 were cutters (.179 AVG, .389 SLG) and knucklecurves (.167 AVG, .250 SLG)

3 — Matt Strahm

Matt Strahm regained his form at the perfect time. He’s pitched to a 1.55 ERA his last three months, with almost twice as many innings as hits and more than a strikeout per frame. He’s allowed runs in just four of those 30 outings and stranded all three inherited runners. 

He still allowed the highest average launch angle among MLB relievers this year, with a ground-ball rate in the first percentile. Maybe he’s not the guy for Shohei Ohtani, who hit 55 dingers this year, or Freddie Freeman, who’s taken him deep twice in 11 at bats. That’s especially true because Strahm, like he did in 2024, had reverse splits in 2025. 

Role: 7th or 8th inning, middle of Dodgers’ lineup — Muncy-Hernández-Pages-Hernández pocket

Notable matchup: Max Muncy (1-for-6, HR, 4 K career against Strahm)

2 — Tanner Banks

One of the oddest splits of the 2025 Phillies: Banks allowed a .475 OPS in high leverage, a .591 in medium leverage and a .712 in low leverage. It doesn’t scream “sustainable” — but then again, Banks’ season didn’t feel sustainable until after the All-Star Break, and if there’s one thing that doesn’t matter in October, much less a five-game series, it’s being “sustainable.”

Especially given Strahm’s aforementioned splits, Banks will simply be tasked as the lefty-getter — the potent Ohtani-Betts-Freeman top of the Dodgers’ lineup, in whatever inning (maybe after the fourth) the situation calls for it. Lefties hit .175/.213/.243 against him this year. And from mid-August on, Banks entered with the bases loaded three times, twice with no outs. He allowed two total inherited runs. Two. 

Role: Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-(Muncy, if cleanup) in the biggest moments those hitters see

Notable matchup: Shohei Ohtani (1-for-2, HR, K against Banks; .898 OPS against lefties in 2025)

1 — Jhoan Duran

October is the time to push your best arms. Duran wasn’t pushed beyond three outs much this year, but as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb wrote, he’s done it before, and it’s gone well. 

Aside from a game-tying homer by Andy Pages, Duran found success in Los Angeles in mid-September. Ohtani tagged the then-Twin for a two-run homer in the ninth inning in July, one of his two six-out appearances of the season, also the only times he recorded more than three outs. The entrance in October will be something.

Role: The last three, four, five, six outs of a game (barring a blown save), any part of the lineup in any semi-close score 

Notable matchup: Shohei Ohtani (2-for-5, two HR career against Duran; .405/.480/.952 ninth-inning slash in 2025)