Analyzing The Marlins’ Starting Pitcher For Sunday’s Finale

The New York Mets are in another must-win situation as they conclude their series, and the regular season, in Miami against the Marlins Sunday afternoon. New York will get a look at the last of Miami’s top-three pitchers in Edward Cabrera. What should the Mets expect from the Marlins’ 27-year-old right-handed pitcher?

Cabrera is having the best season of his five year career. He enters Sunday with a 3.66 ERA and a career-high in innings (132 2/3) and strikeouts (143). Importantly, Cabrera has his walk rate at by-far the lowest of his career at 7.7%, which is 3.9% off his career average of 11.6%.

The 6-foot-5 starter builds his game upon the strikeout. When the opposition makes contact, and puts the ball in play, good things tend to happen. Cabrera’s average exit velocity against and hard hit rate rank in the league’s 25th and ninth percentiles, respectively. This has also helped contribute to an xERA of 4.00 and xBA of .250, each of which rank below the league’s 50th percentile.

So, as mentioned, it is important for Cabrera to do his thing by generating chases (79th percentile) and whiffs (77th percentile), wile relying on the strikeout (73rd percentile). An elevated ground ball rate, with the superb defense behind him (eighth in the league in outs above average), has also helped that hard contact not get to Cabrera as much as it could have this season.

As for Cabrera’s season as whole, it has been an interesting roller coster to say the least. Through his first four starts in April, Cabrera allowed 22 hits, walked 11, and had a 7.23 ERA. However, following that, he has put together a stretch of 16 starts with a 2.22 ERA and 94 strikeouts across 89 1/3 innings. Among these 16 starts, he allowed two or fewer runs in 14 of them.

However, since then, he has allowed 32 hits and 17 runs across 24 2/3 innings. This includes the August 30 outing against the Mets where they got him for six runs over four innings. If you take out an outing where he struck out 10 and held the Atlanta Braves scoreless over seven, Cabrera has allowed 17 runs over four outings. It appears the 27-year-old, who had a previous career-high of 99 2/3 innings, may be starting to hit a wall as he sits at 132 2/3 innings on the season.

As we saw on August 30, the Mets have historically hit Cabrera well. Across his career, he has started nine games against the Mets, and owns a 5.80 ERA. Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Juan Soto, and Mark Vientos all have an OPS over 1.000 against Cabrera in their respective careers.

The last notable piece on Cabrera is his dramatic home/road splits in 2025. The opposition has a minuscule .600 OPS against him at LoanDepot Park in 2025. Meanwhile, on the road, that figure sky rockets too .805. His home ERA sits at 2.91, while on the road, it is 4.63.

The Mets also need help if they want to make the playoffs, but the first order of business will be defeating Cabrera and his Marlins.

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