Brandon Sproat Ready For Majors

Brandon Sproat entered 2025 as the Mets’ top pitching prospect and a top 100 prospect in baseball. He was drafted by New York twice: first in the third round in 2022, then again in the second round in 2023, after which he signed for $1.47 million. Sproat quickly demonstrated why the organization was so persistent in pursuing him. He breezed through High-A and Double-A in 2024, finishing the season with a 3.40 ERA and 131 strikeouts across 116 1/3 innings, earning accolades such as Eastern League Pitcher of the Year and a spot in the Futures Game.

However, when he reached Triple-A late in 2024, the climb took its toll. His strikeout rate plummeted, and his ERA ballooned to 7.53 over seven starts, which was attributed to fatigue from moving up to a third level of the minors in his first professional season. When similar struggles persisted in the first three months of 2025, alarm bells began to ring. Sproat fell off top 100 prospect lists and was surpassed internally by Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong.

In his first 15 starts of 2025, Sproat recorded a 5.95 ERA, striking out just 15.5% of batters, one of the lowest rates among qualified Triple-A starters. His once-dominant four-seam fastball, sitting between 96 and 98 mph, lacked the vertical break needed to elude hitters, resulting in a .336 expected weighted on-base average and a 14% whiff rate. His secondary pitches also underperformed: his slider produced only a 13.3% whiff rate. Although his sweeper, changeup and curveball were closer to league average, none emerged as effective put-away pitches, leading to declines in his whiff and chase numbers.

Everything changed in late June. In his final start of the month, he tossed six scoreless innings with six strikeouts, signaling a turnaround. From June 28 to July 31, Sproat allowed only two earned runs in 33 innings, good for a 0.55 ERA, with 39 strikeouts and just 16 hits allowed. His velocity surged across the board: his four-seam fastball averaged 97.3 mph during that stretch, significantly up from 95.9 mph earlier in the season. Notably, 81% of his four-seamers and sinkers during that six-start run registered at 97 mph or higher, compared to just 17% beforehand.

His changeup became his most effective secondary pitch, generating the highest whiff percentage in his arsenal and limiting damage to contact. His curveball usage increased from 4% to 12%, becoming a viable chase pitch, while the sweeper improved as well, holding hitters to a mere .069 quality-of-contact mark when put in play. The sinker, which had become his second-most-used pitch earlier in the season, remained effective in inducing weak ground balls. Added with the velocity boost enhancing his entire repertoire, Sproat’s strikeout rate surged to 31.2%, aligning with his previous dominance in High-A and Double-A.

Sproat’s 2025 season has truly been a tale of two halves: he posted a 6.69 ERA in his first nine Triple-A starts before May 20, but rebounded with a 3.19 ERA over his last 17 appearances. Excluding a seven-run relief outing on August 24, he maintained a 2.78 ERA across 16 starts since May 25. This period included a standout performance on August 30, where he struck out nine over seven scoreless innings against Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

While there have been some bumps, such as a three-run start to begin August and a five-run outing later that month, the underlying metrics indicate that his performance is much closer to the version that excelled in July than the one that struggled in April and May. The key for Sproat now is consistency: maintaining a velocity of 97 mph or higher, effectively utilizing his changeup and avoiding lapses in command.

“Yeah, look, it was good to see him throw the ball the way he did yesterday,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said after Sproat’s most recent gem with Syracuse. “I think it was one of those where it’s like, ‘All right, here I am too.’ And we’re watching. We’re watching.”

On Sunday, Sproat will finally get his chance to prove himself in the majors, taking the mound on a week’s rest in Cincinnati against a Reds team that is chasing the Mets in the Wild Card race. With a fastball that can touch triple digits, a sharpened changeup and multiple usable breaking balls, the version of Sproat the Mets have seen since late June looks to be a top 100 talent once again and possibly a staple in New York’s rotation moving forward.

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