Potential October blueprint in Phillies’ inspiring win in Milwaukee

The Phillies took an early punch on Labor Day against the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers and their triple-digit All-Star rookie Jacob Misiorowski but fought back multiple times in a win that should inspire some confidence.

The Phils dug a four-run hole on the road, did not have the starting pitching advantage with Taijuan Walker and blew an eighth-inning lead but still had enough offensive firepower to complete the comeback. Without the best version of their starting rotation for the rest of 2025, they will need to win some games this way in October, by grinding out at-bats for nine full innings against high-quality pitching.

This week’s series in Milwaukee is a potential playoff preview and it’s always more edifying when it comes in September, like last year’s meetings between the Phillies and Mets. The Phils will see firsthand what has made the Brewers so dangerous this summer — a pesky lineup with patience, speed and some pop, a rotation with at least three good starters in Misiorowski, Freddy Peralta and Jose Quintana, and one of the NL’s better bullpens.

The Phils will face all three of those starters this week and got to interim Brewers closer Abner Uribe on Monday with walks and hits. Uribe is filling in with Trevor Megill sidelined by a right flexor strain, an injury that could be massive for Milwaukee if it lingers. The long look Monday against Uribe should be beneficial if the bats see him again in the eighth or ninth inning.

Both teams managed the opener like a playoff game, using a combined 12 relievers and matching up at every opportunity. The Brewers used four different players in one lineup spot. The rare Tuesday off helped both managers empty out their bullpens, but such is the case in the playoffs as well. There are days off after Games 1, 2 and 4 of the NLDS, and after Games 2 and 5 of the NLCS. If the Phillies do see the Brewers in the playoffs, it would likely be in the Championship Round since the 1-seed faces the winner of the 4-5 wild-card matchup in the DS.

The Brewers have a firm grip on that top seed after an 18-2 run began right around the trade deadline. They lead the Phillies by 4.5 games and the Dodgers by six. The Phils’ only realistic chance to leapfrogging them is sweeping the series and flying to Miami 2.5 games back.

The more likely scenario is that Milwaukee hangs on to the top seed while the Phillies and Dodgers continue to battle for the all-important bye that comes with the 2-seed. The Phils are at Dodger Stadium for three enormous games September 15-17.

There were times this season (and last, and several others) when the Brewers’ success seemed fluky. But you don’t fake your way to a +161 run differential — 60 full runs better than the Phillies and Dodgers.

It’s a dynamic offense with Brice Turang, William Contreras, Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich all offering selectivity and pop. Most of the lineup is a threat to run, as well. It could be argued that the Brewers are a more dangerous matchup for the Phillies than even the star-studded Dodgers because of their increased pitching depth and the number of effective lefties they can summon from the bullpen.

The series opener went very well from a Phillies perspective even though they spent the majority of it trailing. They scored 10 runs without any blasts from Kyle Schwarber, who went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and a ninth-inning leadoff walk to start a rally. In Schwarber’s other 48 hitless games this season, the Phillies have averaged 3.2 runs and gone 24-24.

There aren’t going to be four-homer games in the playoffs. Teams are going to avoid Schwarber — who’s driven in 53 runs more than any other Phillie this season — as much as they can.

You’re not going to pound out 10 runs every day but Monday’s lineup, with guys like Brandon Marsh, Harrison Bader, Max Kepler and Bryson Stott reaching base 11 times, looked like an offense capable of overcoming the loss of Zack Wheeler and making a deep playoff run. It’s fitting, then, that the next man the Phillies see on the mound Wednesday is Quintana, the soft-tossing veteran lefty who helped spoil their 2024 by not allowing an earned run to them over 12 innings in September and October.