Trust ranking the Phillies’ bullpen: Installment No. 5

There was a promise in the last bullpen trust ranking that things will look different in short order. Well …

That is certainly the case. And it’s not just the Phillies’ pitching staff that Jhoan Duran has electrified. It’s not just the team itself. It’s an entire ballpark whenever the lights go dim, the spiders come out and Duran trots in from the lower of Citizens Bank Park’s double-decker bullpens.

But the changes go beyond Duran. David Robertson is here. And things will look even more different soon: José Alvarado is eligible to return on Tuesday, meaning someone is on his way out. Heck, two relievers could be on their way out if the Phillies go with a six-man rotation for some amount of time.

With all that in mind, here’s how the current relief corps stacks up with 42 games to go.

8 — Joe Ross (8)

Wednesday’s contrast with Romano — four up, four down vs. a grand slam — might suggest a flip-flop here. But the scoreless outing was one of just 11 in Ross’s last 21 appearances overall. Someone will go when Alvarado returns. The bet here is Ross.

7 — Jordan Romano (4)

How the mighty have fallen. No. 1 on this list a few moons ago, Romano’s latest blowup came in the form of a Wednesday night grand slam that spiked his ERA to 7.24. Romano has actually been charged with zero runs in 16 of his last 20 appearances, hence the not-last placement. The other four prevent him from any higher, because when it’s bad, it’s bad.

6 — David Robertson (NR)

It’s not impossible Robertson finds his way into the top … three? four? come October. The Phillies will need to see it first. He’s made one appearance with the big league club, a one-walk, one-hit, one-strikeout inning in Cincinnati. He topped out at 92.1 mph. That number should rise.

5 — Matt Strahm (3)

The Phillies need to figure out their lefty reliever situation for October. July Strahm, who allowed two hits in nine shutout innings, would ease that problem slightly. He’s cooled a bit since, though most of the damage came on Aug. 2 against the Tigers. Still, Strahm has the second-highest average launch angle among MLB relievers this year, and that stat has “disaster” written all over it.

4 — Max Lazar (7)

Lazar could very well be the one on the way out when Alvarado returns, but that’s just because of his available option and the expanded September rosters that’d likely have him right back up. The seven-hit Chicago outing is such an outlier that you almost want to ignore it; if you do, he’s allowed zero earned runs in his last nine frames. Not how it works, of course. But he’s back on track and pitched well in a few leverage outings in July. An October factor, as things stand.

3 — Tanner Banks (2)

Banks allowed two runs the night the last ranking slotted him second, but he then went right back to effectiveness. He’s now stranding inherited runners, too — all seven since the start of July. Still not your go-to for a much-needed strikeout. Still stingy with free passes. And that’ll generally play.

2 — Orion Kerkering (1)

Last ranking called for more strikeouts; Kerkering has 13 in nine innings since. Also eight hits, which is a lot. But the hard contact is on its way back down after a tougher July. He has 1.62 ERA since the start of May. He hasn’t entered a dirty inning in his last 21 outings. The Phillies should test him down the stretch.

1 — Jhoan Duran (NR)

It’s almost hard to describe the chasm between Duran and everyone else in this bullpen. He has three strikeouts in four Phillies innings, which would be something to note if he didn’t build a 2.01 ERA in Minnesota on much the same formula: relatively low strikeout numbers (for a backend reliever), but practically zero barrels. 98-mph splinkers will do that. And if you do need a strikeout? There are worse options than rearing back for 103. The entrance in his Citizens Bank Park postseason debut would be quite a scene.