How much could it realistically take for Phillies to re-sign Kyle Schwarber?

Kyle Schwarber changed the complexion of yet another game Monday, hitting his 42nd bomb to turn a one-run lead into a three-run advantage for a bullpen that was without its closer for the night. The Phillies won again, their fourth in a row, and now enjoy MLB’s second-biggest division lead.

Week after week, month after month this season, Schwarber has delivered. Nine home runs in April, 10 in May, six in June, 12 in July, five already in 10 games this month. He has far and away been the Phillies’ most productive hitter in 2025 and if you were to hand out a team MVP award, it would go to one of Schwarber, Cristopher Sánchez or Zack Wheeler.

Heck, Schwarber’s in the actual MVP conversation. His 42 homers are tied with Shohei Ohtani for the National League lead. His 97 RBI lead the NL. His .376 on-base percentage is seventh.

It’s been the contract year every hitter dreams of, and though it’s cost the Phillies future dollars if they’re able to re-sign him after the season, it’s a trade-off they’ve obviously welcomed because it’s helped them win games. Schwarber has been better in 2025 than ever before.

His current contract was for $79 million over four years and Schwarber well outperformed that price tag. He’s hit 46, 47, 38 and 42 homers, and with 44 games left, has a solid chance to reach 50. Not bad for under $20M annually.

Designated hitter or not, 32 years old or not, Schwarber will have a free-agent market of at least half the league. Maybe two-thirds of the league. Maybe more. The only teams that will be truly out on him will be the smallest-market clubs or those that just started rebuilds. You can cross off seven in the Pirates, Nationals, Marlins, Rockies, White Sox, Twins and A’s.

But every other club could potentially be in play to some degree. Not every team could afford a six- or seven-year deal but some could be creative with shorter contracts and sky-high annual average values.

The thing about Schwarber is that he’s not just a slugger. He’d also offer a new organization at least three important intangibles: He’s a well-respected clubhouse leader, he would excite any fanbase whether it’s in the Bronx, the Bay or the Midwest, and he’s won a World Series, doing major damage both times he’s been there.

Whether or not an analytically inclined fan values those intangibles, you’d better believe owners and many front office executives do, and that’s what matters when trying to project Schwarber’s next contract.

It only ever takes one team to skew the bidding and that’s true for players on deals both short- and long-term. Juan Soto would not have made $765 million or probably anything close to it if not for the presence of the Mets. A recent Phillies example is Andrew McCutchen, who they signed to a three-year, $50 million contract ahead of the 2019 season when it was unclear whether his market would develop to that point. The Phillies valued McCutchen’s track record and leadership abilities and didn’t mind if they were overpaying a bit. Don’t be surprised if the same happens this winter in multiple cities with Schwarber.

So, what could be the number — $125 million, $150 million, $200 million? Schwarber’s camp will begin the offseason with the highest of expectations and rightfully so. They could begin by seeking a commitment of at least five years with an AAV of at least $40 million. That would be a $200M contract.

There are only four players signed beyond 2025 who are being paid at least $40M a year: Ohtani, Soto, Wheeler and Aaron Judge.

There are 12 players earning between $31M and $37M: Rafael Devers, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, Corbin Burnes, Anthony Rendon, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Gerrit Cole, Mike Trout, Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom.

The second range seems more realistic for Schwarber than the first, especially because of the DH component. He has played the outfield in only 12 of his last 267 games.

Schwarber’s side will likely stress that it was a team decision, that he could have played the outfield more these last few years but served as the DH because it was how the Phillies constructed their roster. Whether or not he actually wants to play the outfield during his next contract, Schwarber’s side will present the possibility because it would only increase his potential earnings.

Excluding Ohtani because he also pitches, the richest DH contract belongs to Yordan Alvarez at six years, $115 million. But that deal can almost be disregarded because of the caveats that it bought out three of Alvarez’ arbitration years and he was still playing left field at the time of signing.

After that, it’s Masataka Yoshida (five years, $90M), who was three years younger than Schwarber when he signed with the Red Sox and has been primarily a DH since.

Suffice it to say, Schwarber’s next deal will set a new precedent for designated hitters behind him. There hasn’t been a free-agent test case quite like this one, at least not during the current ERA of pitching dominance and suppressed offense.

Kyle Tucker will be the top position player in this winter’s class. Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger are all locks to opt out and become free agents. Josh Naylor will be out there. Teams will pursue Luis Arraez. Some of them offer more well-rounded skill sets and versatility but Schwarber might be the most impactful offensive player of them all.

Another factor in negotiations with Schwarber and other top-tier free agents this winter could be the threat of a lockout in 2027. Will teams allocate the same amount of money to their budgets this winter knowing their revenues may decrease substantially the following year?

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has acknowledged that re-signing Schwarber will be difficult. The player has little incentive to give a hometown discount. Schwarber is comfortable and loves it in Philadelphia but he also was comfortable and loved playing in Chicago, Washington and Boston. He’s from Middletown, Ohio, and has been asked plenty about his interest in playing for his hometown Reds. Why wouldn’t the Cubs and Red Sox explore a reunion? Why wouldn’t the Yankees and Mets come calling? Schwarber is the rare player who could walk into any clubhouse and feel at home, as evidenced by the flocks of opponents who come over to greet or BS with him during batting practice before the first game of a series.

The hunch here is that the team to land Schwarber this offseason will need to commit at least five years. If the AAV ends up falling in the aforementioned $31-37M range which includes a dozen players, that would be $155-185M over five years.

Sounds like a ton of money for a DH, perhaps too much. But anyone who’s watched the Phillies closely the last four years and especially these last two realizes how much worse off they’d be without Schwarber the slugger and Schwarber the teammate. A future without him is one they don’t want to think about.