Sean Manaea Is Finding His Angle

It’s been a rough stretch for the Mets. After rattling off seven straight wins, they’ve crashed back to earth, dropping eight of their last nine following Wednesday’s loss against the Cleveland Guardians. Zooming out, it’s been a frustrating two-month span, with the team going just 18–28 over their last 46 games.

There’s plenty of blame to go around. The lineup has continued to struggle, and star players like Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Juan Soto have all found themselves stuck in extended slumps. And while it’s tough to win consistently without executing offensively, the starting rotation hasn’t helped matters. No Mets starter—aside from David Peterson—has completed six innings of work since June 7, when Clay Holmes did so against the Colorado Rockies. The lack of length has put immense stress on the bullpen, and while the group was recently reinforced by trade deadline acquisitions Gregory Soto, Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley, they can’t be expected to carry that kind of workload night after night.

Luckily for the Mets, both Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga are nearly fully ramped up after returning from their respective injuries shortly before the All-Star break. While Senga has struggled to the tune of a 6.19 ERA and 6.99 FIP across 16 innings since his return, he completed six or more innings in six of 13 starts before the injury and should ultimately return to form. Manaea, meanwhile, has looked sharp since coming back, aside from a blowup inning in the sixth against the Guardians in his last outing.

In 23 innings since returning, Manaea has posted a 3.52 ERA and 3.55 FIP, along with a 25:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. While the sample size is still small, his underlying metrics support the idea that his success is sustainable moving forward.

So, what exactly is Manaea doing well? It’s a combination of factors. He’s done an excellent job of limiting hard contact, with an average exit velocity against of just 87.3 MPH—which would rank in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers. He’s been elite at mitigating the frequency of hard contact as well, with a hard hit rate of 29% that would put him first among all pitchers. He’s also limiting walks and generating swings and misses: his 26.6% strikeout rate would rank at No. 18 among all starters, while his 4.3% walk rate would place him fifth.

So far in 2025, it appears Manaea has made substantial changes to his pitch arsenal. He’s completely abandoned the sinker—a pitch he threw 25.1% of the time in 2024—in favor of his four-seam fastball, which has seen its usage jump from 31% to 65.1%. He’s also leaned more heavily on his sweeper, increasing its usage from 19.1% to 29.5% this season. While he still only mixes in his changeup occasionally (4.4% usage), Manaea has been vocal about wanting to improve the pitch, and its usage could trend back toward 2024 levels (11.1%) as the season progresses.

It remains to be seen whether Manaea will return to using his sinker as the year goes on, but if he’s done with it for good, the numbers suggest it might be the right decision. In 2024, opponents hit .231 with a .337 slugging percentage against the pitch—but the expected metrics painted an even grimmer picture with a .272 expected batting average and a .452 expected slugging percentage. His four-seam fastball, by comparison, yielded much better results: just a .163 batting average and .317 slugging percentage, along with more favorable expected marks (.218 xBA, .384 xSLG).

The quality-of-contact and swing-and-miss data tell a similar story. Manaea’s sinker was hit significantly harder, with a 51.8% hard-hit rate compared to just 38.8% on the four-seamer. It also struggled to generate whiffs (19.6% whiff rate and 19.2% strikeout rate), while his four-seamer posted a 25.8% whiff rate and 28.4% strikeout rate.

Given how effective his sweeper was in 2024, it makes sense that Manaea has increased its usage in 2025. The pitch was already one of his most reliable weapons, so leaning on it more this season is a logical adjustment. Opponents hit just .194 with a .313 slugging percentage against it last year, and the expected metrics were even more impressive with a .158 expected batting average and .254 expected slugging. It was rarely hit hard (25.7% hard-hit rate) and served as his most effective swing-and-miss pitch, with a 39.0% whiff rate and a 41.8% strikeout rate.

A major reason Manaea can be so effective while leaning primarily on just two pitches is the adjustment he made to his arm angle. After watching Chris Sale pitch at Citi Field last July, Manaea was inspired to lower his arm slot—dropping it from 28 degrees to 15 degrees by season’s end. The results were immediate. Following that Sale start, Manaea posted a 3.09 ERA and 3.35 FIP over his final 75.2 innings (12 starts), with 83 strikeouts and just 18 walks.

That marked a significant improvement from his previous mechanics. In his first 20 starts of the season (106 innings), he recorded a 3.74 ERA and 4.18 FIP with 101 strikeouts and 45 walks.

So far in 2025, Manaea is pitching with an average arm angle of 15 degrees, which is tied for the second-lowest among full-time left-handed starters alongside Nick Lodolo and behind only Sale (eight degrees). The early returns are promising, and if Manaea can maintain this level of performance while providing a bit more length, it would be a significant boost for a Mets team with World Series aspirations.

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