Analyzing the Mets’ Offensive Woes

The Mets just wrapped up a brutal 1-5 homestand and are currently in a stretch where they’ve dropped eight of their last nine games. But despite the ugly results, there are still strong indicators that this team is due for a positive offensive regression.

From an expected statistical standpoint, the Mets are an outlier. They rank tenth in home runs, sixth in walks, 11th in fewest strikeouts, sixth in base-running, third in hard hit rate, third in barrel rate, third in average exit velocity, sixth in xBA, and fourth in xSLG. In other words, the teams that are excellent in the same advanced metrics as the Mets- exit velocity, barrels, hard hit percentage, walks- are top-tier offenses. Yet, the Mets rank 15th in runs scored. 

So, what gives?

Issues with RISP

The Mets’ problem hasn’t been getting runners on base- it’s been driving them in. As a team, the Mets have a .231 batting average with runners in scoring position, which is tied for third-worst in MLB with the Rockies. Their WRC+ drops from 111 with the bases empty (third in MLB) to 99 with RISP (17th in MLB). Their .255 BABIP with RISP (compared to .286 with bases empty) is the lowest in MLB. Interestingly, their approach with runners in scoring position isn’t necessarily more aggressive. They appear to be more passive: 11.5% walk rate with RISP vs. 8.4% with bases empty and 21.9% K rate with the bases empty vs. 20.1% K rate with RISP. 

In terms of contact quality, there’s not a drastic drop-off either: Soft contact improves slightly with RISP (15.2% vs. 16.6%). Their pull rate increases from 37.2% (lowest in MLB with bases empty) to 40.3% with RISP. Their ground ball rate is also slightly higher with RISP (44.1% compared to 41.8%). 

None of these differences alone would suggest a steep drop-off in production. Collectively, however, they have created a perfect storm for underperformance. While the issue is team-wide, Ronny Mauricio, for example, has a 170 WRC+ with the bases empty and a -9 WRC+ with RISP (yes, that’s a real stat), much of the spotlight has fallen on Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor.

With the bases empty, Juan Soto has been as good as ever: 192 WRC+, 20 HR, (.306/ .424/ .614) 1.038 OPS with a 16.7% walk rate and a 19.3 K rate. His batted-ball profile reinforces this production. Soto has a 9.9 soft contact rate, which is elite, and a 42.1 % ground ball rate. However, Soto has just five home runs with a 77 WRC+ with RISP and an impossible .181 BABIP. What is concerning is that despite Soto’s elite discipline 18.1% walk rate, 19.7% K rate with RISP), Soto is making worse contact (19.2 soft contact percentage and a 50.6% ground ball rate. So while Soto’s approach doesn’t change, the increased ground balls and weaker contact explain, on some level, the delta between Soto’s production with the bases empty and his lack of production with runners in scoring position. 

Lindor’s struggles follow a slightly different pattern. Francisco has a 123 WRC+ with 16 of his 21 home runs when the bases are empty. He has a 75 WRC+ with RISP and has hit only two home runs with RISP. Lindor has a K rate of 20.5% and a walk rate of 6.6% with the bases empty. However, with runners in scoring position, he is putting the ball in play more (4.5% walk rate and a 16.4% K rate), but he is not making quality contact. Lindor has a hard hit percentage of 28% with RISP compared to 33% with the bases empty. Not only is he making weaker contact, but Lindor is hitting more ground balls with RISP than with the bases empty (39.1% vs. 44.4%).

Slumps & Injuries

Prior to breaking his toe on hit by pitch on June 4, Francisco Lindor was having another MVP caliber season. Below are his numbers before and after breaking the toe:

Before:
139 WRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 60 games
90.6 exit velocity, 9.5% barrel rate and a 44% hard hit rate.

After:
83 WRC+, 0.7 fWAR in 53 games
88.9 exit velocity, 6.7% barrel rate, 41.1% hard hit rate.

He is striking out more and walking less (21.3%-17.3% and 8.3% to 6.1%). Clearly, Lindor hasn’t been the same player since the toe injury and his lack of production has been a major reason the Mets; offense has struggled to score runs.

Soto Mini Slump:

In the 18 games since the All Star break, Juan Soto has struggled. He is hitting .177 with a .640 OPS good for a 77 WRC+. Unlike Soto’s early struggles this season, there is some batted ball numbers that suggest Soto isn’t hitting into bad luck.

Exit velocity down from 94.4 to 91.9
Barrel rate down from 18% to 14.3%
K rate up from 18.4% to 23.2%
Walk rate down from 18.2% to 14.5%.

Soto is chasing more and making worse contact. Hopefully his home run to break up Gavin Williams‘ no hitter was a sign Soto was breaking out this tough stretch.

Pete Alonso Post April:

Pete Alonso got off to the best start of his career. He posted a 215 WRC+ and a 2.0 fWAR between March 27 and April 30. Both the 215 WRC+ and the 2.0 fWAR were second in MLB behind Aaron Judge. Since May 1 (84 games) here are Alonso’s numbers:

.238/ .306/ .456 (762 ops) 112 WRC+
K rate up from 14.7% to 26.1%
Walk rate down from 16.8% to 7.5%

Alonso has been an above average hitter, but with Lindor in a prolonged slump and more recently Soto struggling, Pete’s underwhelming stretch has been magnified.

The Two Streaks

Finally, I’d like to look at the Mets offense during the seven game winning streak from July 20- July 27 and contrast it with the offense’s issues during this current lull. In the winning streak the offense solid:

i. 34 runs scored
ii. 202. K% (10th lowest), 9.5% walk rate (eight best)
iii. 26 extra-base hits (ninth most)
iv. 113 WRC+ (eighth best)
v. 38% ground ball rate
vi. 39.8% pull rate
vii. .291 BABIP

The batted ball profile:
Average exit velocity 89.6 (12th highest), 11% barrel rate (third best), 10th in hard hit rate.

In the current losing stretch:

i. 35 runs scored but only 23 in the eight loses.
ii. Fewest extra-base hits in MLB(16), second fewest home runs (seven)
iii. K rate: 23.9% (11th highest)
iv. Lowest BABIP in MLB (.253)
v. 69 WRC+ (second lowest in MLB)
vi. 43.2% ground ball rate
vii. 34.8% pull rate

The batted ball profile during the losing streak:
89.6 exit velocity (20th), 9.0% barrel rate (11th), 20th in hard hit rate.

When looking at the two streaks, the difference in offense is there, but not enough to explain the stark difference in results. When revisiting the winning streak, the Mets won three one-run games, including the 2-1 victory over the Giants, where Jung Hoo-Lee almost hit a walk-off home run off Edwin Dìaz. During the current tough stretch, the Mets have lost four one-run games, two of which were extra-inning losses. So while the extreme swings of winning seven in a row, and then losing eight of night, leaves a bad taste in your mouth, the team is 8-10 since the break which is bad but not catastrophic.

Overall Thoughts

The Mets’ offensive profile mirrors that of the elite lineups like the Dodgers, Cubs and Yankees. The difference has been situational hitting. But with some better batted ball fortune and more early count aggression, those RIPS numbers will rise to the level of the team’s production with the bases empty. Now is not the time for firing hitting coaches or making drastic changes, there is simply too much talent on the roster and the tide is due to turn- hopefully beginning in Milwaukee on Friday night.

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