Abel’s surprising surge allowed Dombrowski to hit a homer with Duran trade

Had you been told at the beginning of the season that the Phillies would be able to plug their biggest hole with the top available closer in a seller’s market and without dealing away Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford or Aidan Miller, would you have believed it?

Dave Dombrowski, Preston Mattingly and the Phillies’ front office pulled off the splash move on Wednesday evening, solving the Phillies’ closer’s role not just for 2025 but for 2026 and 2027 as well, the duration of Duran’s contract. 

The cost was right-hander Mick Abel and catching prospect Eduardo Tait, who turn 24 and 19 in August. The Twins had known about the Phillies’ interest in Duran for some time but held one of the top overall chips on the trade market and held out, as teams do, until the brink of the deadline.

Perhaps waiting even longer into Thursday would have yielded Minnesota a slightly better return but the bidding had reached a stage where the Twins knew the top-end of what teams were willing to offer. The Phillies weren’t budging on top prospect Andrew Painter. They wanted to hold onto Crawford and Miller as well, knowing they might soon need those two position players to supplement an aging core or eventually in a different trade. 

Seattle was reportedly hot after Duran as well. Judging by the quick pivots Wednesday night by the Mariners (Eugenio Suarez) and Mets (Ryan Helsley), it appears Duran helped unclog some of the market.

The Phillies will theoretically boast a deep and impressive bullpen in October: Duran as the closer with Matt Strahm, David Robertson and Orion Kerkering in front of him. The setup tandem will depend on the section of the opponent’s lineup but it’s helpful that Robertson’s cutter makes him a weapon against lefties as well. Relievers like Jordan Romano and Tanner Banks figure to be used in lower-leverage situations. Jose Alvarado, of course, will be ineligible for the 2025 postseason because of a PED ban.

Duran is one of the game’s few true closers. Finally, the Phillies have one they can feel good about long-term. He took over ninth-inning duty for the Twins in 2023 and has racked up 66 saves since. He has two elite pitches, a 2.47 career ERA, huge strikeout stuff and has allowed just five home runs in 104 innings the last two seasons. His four-seam fastball has averaged 100.7 mph this year, second in the majors to Mason Miller.

Tait is a well-regarded catching prospect who’s hit .288 with an .819 OPS in 851 minor-league plate appearances. Perhaps he continues to develop and becomes a starting catcher in the bigs someday. He hasn’t yet reached Double A, though, and given the need for catchers to develop on both sides of the ball plus with game planning, he was unlikely to help the Phillies at the major-league level for at least a couple of years. 

Abel will be up with the Twins sooner than that and his own development this season with the Phillies cannot be overstated. It allowed them to acquire one of the game’s best late-inning relievers. This is a pitcher who entered 2025 as a question mark after four years of control issues in the minor leagues. The Phillies wanted him to simplify, to think less on the mound and trust his natural ability more. It wasn’t the first time Abel heard any of that advice, but this season was the first that he was able to apply it, turning it into a consistent run at Triple A that earned him a call-up to the majors in mid-May. Three of his first four starts with the Phils were excellent. The last two — nine runs, four homers and 14 baserunners in 4 2/3 innings — showed he is still far from a finished product. 

It’s hard to find a reason to dislike this trade from the Phillies’ end. They may not have been able to make it without compiling so much quality starting pitching. A case can be made that Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher in MLB and Painter is the best young pitcher yet to debut in MLB. Cristopher Sanchez is a Cy Young candidate and has unexpectedly delivered first-round value for the Phils with no signs of flukiness. Ranger Suarez has a 2.59 ERA, Jesus Luzardo has been solid overall without missing a start and Aaron Nola should be back soon from an absence of nearly three months. 

There’s more protection now behind all of them. It remains to be seen whether the Phillies’ offense will meet the task this October and they clearly did not want to overpay for one of the better bats in a weak position player market, but the front office achieved its goal in fortifying the bullpen.