Trade Deadline Coming: Blogfather’s (Almost Certainly Wrong) Predictions

I could have told you Nick Kurtz was going to hit 4 HRs last night. I just couldn’t have told you until right after the game, as I am very good at predicting the past but not quite as skilled as predicting the future.

However, an August 1st “trade deadline predictions” article wouldn’t be very interesting and so today I will make my guesses with the first prediction being: next week I will deeply regret having published this and looking ever so foolish for my many wrong prognostications.

Anyhoo, here are my safe and dark horse predictions for the A’s activity between now and July 31st...

Free Agents To Be

This group includes Luis Urias, Gio Urshela, Miguel Andujar, and Jose LeClerc. The A’s got a bad break when LeClerc went down with an injury that requires shoulder surgery and will end his time with the A’s after 10 poor April appearances. LeClerc would actually have commanded a good trade deadline return as a set up man with elite strikeout numbers.

In what is probably the likeliest prediction to be correct, I think the A’s will in fact trade Urias for a prospect that while not tops on his team’s list might at least be interesting. A comp would be the Paul Blackburn for Kade Morris swap.

Urias will not be coveted for his game changing ability, but the market for 2Bmen is soft and so there will be interest from multiple teams. Look for the A’s to find a suitor by month’s end.

I don’t think there will be much interest in Andujar due to his terrible defense and diminished power. He might get dealt for a lottery ticket or he might not be traded at all. Urshela will have to be DFA to get him out of town.

Starting Pitchers

There has been some buzz around the trio of Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, and JP Sears. I do think there’s a decent chance one of them will be moved as well as a fair chance all 3 will stay.

My bold prediction is that the A’s will work a trade out that just makes too much sense, and that is to send Severino, who looked electric in his last start, to the Mets.

Severino not only pitched well for the Mets last season, New York made him an offer this past off-season so they clearly like him. They have ample money to absorb much of Severino’s $67M contract and they are known to be looking to bolster their rotation for the stretch drive.

Severino’s overall stats are middling but are severely knocked down by having MLB’s very highest home ERA (6.68). On the road it’s 3.03 and the Mets may well decide that a change of scenery, from a AAA home ballpark to the familiar confines of Shea Stadium, will bring out the best in him overall.

Meanwhile, the Mets have the kind of young players the A’s might covet, from an excess of infielders that might make either Brett Baty or Ronny Mauricio available to young pitching: 10 of their top 18 prospects on MLB Pipeline are pitchers.

So I am guessing that Springs and Sears stay while Severino, in the doghouse of the A’s front office following his anti-Sutter Health Park comments, goes to the Mets along with a chunk of money in exchange for some decent prospect capital. Decent, not terrific, thanks to Severino’s bloated contract.

Dark Horses

Some “zag” moves have been discussed on AN, such as Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers, and around the national rumor mill Mason Miller and Brent Rooker have been much mentioned.

The A’s have made it as clear as they can that they are not making Miller available. Of course a team could always change the landscape by blowing the A’s out of the water with an offer, but I have to think Miller isn’t going anywhere.

Rooker just came out with an equally unequivocal message that he is staying — and he quotes the A’s front office confirming directly to him as reliable intel. Rooker stays.

I don’t see Langeliers going anywhere at the deadline. If the A’s were to move him it would be in the off-season, as trading him now would disrupt the pitching staff mid-year and the A’s don’t have anyone capable of stepping in to vie for the role of primary catcher. Similarly teams probably aren’t looking to acquire a new primary catcher right now as they make a post-season push, nor is Langeliers a rental or a true impact bat (other than his power).

This leaves Soderstrom as the most intriguing possibility for a splashy deal, but I predict the A’s will listen to offers and decline them. They are not sold enough on Colby Thomas to hand him the LF job and his 2 for 19, 11 K debut is hardly changing their mind. Soderstrom is young, cheap, and still improving and maturing, and still has a chance to turn a corner as he reaches his mid-20s to become that affordable star the A’s can’t easily find.

I may have my concerns around his ability to reach his potential — his defense and futility against LHP limit his ceiling and his attitude/coachability has been questioned since he was drafted. But I don’t think the A’s are ready to give up on him as a possible core piece for 2026 and beyond, even if they may privately have their worries. Soderstrom stays.

Package Inclusion?

My final “zag” thought of a player that hasn’t been mentioned much at all is that perhaps Zack Gelof could be included in a deal. Gelof’s 2023 was splendid enough to appeal to teams, and his 17 HR, 25 SB 2024 shows his value even in a down year.

Given his horrific 2025 showing in the big leagues combined with an injury and now early struggles back at AAA, Gelof is unquestionably a reclamation project. But he’s one with a lot of skills and upside and a team might gamble on a change of scenery and/or different coaching around his swing and approach helping him get back to his 2023 form.

Might Gelof be included in a deadline deal as the A’s seek to cash in on their assets to procure the young pitching and other help they need for 2026? Seems plausible if the A’s believe Gelof will not be part of the future core but find a team that generally believes in his ability.

OK so there are my pearls of wisdom ignorance. Your turn to say whether you think my assessments of what might happen are accurate, and also what you think the A’s should do in these final 6 days as a seller in a seller’s market.

Oh one last prediction I think might be right: The A’s will not be trading Nick Kurtz.