Crunch Time: Mariners at Angels Series Preview
The Mariners head out on a big road trip beginning with a four-game series in Anahiem.
The Mariners went 6-6 in their gauntlet of games sandwiching the All-Star break, a decent performance against some of the best teams in baseball. They’re now embarking on a critical road trip ahead of the trade deadline and have three straight series against division foes on the docket. Given the softness of the rest of the American League, and the rising play of the Angels and Rangers, these next 11 games feel a lot more important than they might appear on the surface. A 7-4 record feels like the minimum needed to feel good about the M’s position heading into the dog days of summer.
The Angels have been hanging around on the fringe of the Wild Card race for a few months now. While they’ve clambered back to .500 on a number of occasions, they haven’t been able to cross that threshold. As recently as last weekend, they were a game under .500 and looked like a team that might be buying at the trade deadline — or at least not selling. Unfortunately, they were swept by the Mets earlier this week, which makes this series against the M’s and their next series against the Rangers extremely important for their trade deadline plans.
The lineup has been the one consistent strength for the Angels over the last few months. Since May, they’ve scored 4.7 runs per game and have a 105 wRC+ as a team, both above average marks in the American League. This uptick in production has coincided with the return of Zach Neto from his spring shoulder injury, the health of Mike Trout, and the breakout of Jo Adell. Along with the solid veteran production of Taylor Ward and a few steps forward from Nolan Schanuel, the Angels have a very potent top of the lineup. The bottom half isn’t as impressive, though the potential for damage is certainly there; both Jorge Soler and Logan O’Hoppe have struggled this season but both can put a ball into the seats on a moment’s notice.
Probable Pitchers
After finding some success in Toronto and a second-half stint with the Astros last year, Yusei Kikuchi signed a three-year deal with the Angels to lead their rotation. He’s largely the same pitcher that he was when Seattle first brought him over from Japan with an overpowering fastball and a trio of solid secondary pitches. His fastball has lost about a tick of velocity from where it was last year and he’s now throwing his slider as his primary pitch. That has seemed to erase all the command gains he showed the past few years; his walk rate has increased by more than four points despite him running a career-high zone rate. The topline results are still impressive, however; his ERA is a touch above three with his FIP a touch below four.
José Soriano is a really tricky pitcher to analyse. He throws harder than almost every other starting pitcher in the majors, has the highest groundball rate of any starter in baseball, and features three pitches with whiff rates north of 30%. Yet, he’s focused on generating weak contact with his sinker rather than racking up strikeouts with his breaking balls, so his strikeout rate is only 20.0% and his mediocre command prevents him from really excelling. That means he’s often working in and out of trouble but doesn’t have the approach to avoid allowing some damage when there’s traffic on the bases.
From a previous series preview:
Way back in 2022, Tyler Anderson enjoyed a late-career breakout with the Dodgers thanks to a revamped changeup. That pitch has continued to hold the foundation of his repertoire in the three years since but his overall results have flagged since joining the Angels. The two other ingredients of his breakout — a 4.8% walk rate and a 6.4% home run rate — have both ballooned in Anaheim, which has led to an ERA and FIP both above four. At this point in his career, he’s a known entity: try to avoid his changeup, crush his four-seamer, and let him get himself into trouble.
From a previous series preview:
For some reason, the Angels chose to sign Kyle Hendricks to a one-year deal this offseason. Something about a veteran presence and eating a bunch of innings while the Angels continue to develop some of their young pitching prospects. Things have gone about as well as could be expected for the 35-year-old soft tosser. He relies on command and guile to try and deceive opposing batters but his pitches have degraded in quality so much that it doesn’t really matter.
The Big Picture:
The Astros swept their series in Arizona which was bad for Seattle’s division hopes but good if you think the M’s and D-Backs are a good fit as trade partners in the next week. Houston returns home to host the Athletics for four games this weekend. The A’s were just swept by the Rangers earlier this week and Texas is now tied with the Rays in the Wild Card standings. The Rangers host the Braves this weekend. Over in the AL East, the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays all lost their series earlier this week. This weekend, New York hosts the Phillies, Boston hosts the Dodgers, and Tampa Bay travels to Cincinnati.