Mariners take 2, need a few

Odds and endings atop the AL West

The gap in the AL West remains.

The Mariners took two of three from the Astros over the weekend. I wrote before the series the Mariners held decent odds to win the division despite trailing by five games. Those odds improved slightly as they cut the Astros’ lead to four.

• After NYY: 13.2%
• After DET: 23.6% (+10.3)
• Friday: 28.7% (+5.1)
• Saturday: 36.7% (+8.0)
• Sunday: 28.2% (-8.5)
• Monday: 28.8% (+0.6) — Ahead of Brewers

Playoff odds are a useful tool because they capture a broad view of a team’s performance to date, assumed quality going forward, and relative standing in their division or league. The “odds” component (while meaningful) is almost beside the point. Fangraphs bases their playoff odds on “Rest of Season” projected fWAR using a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer. These numbers are important because they tend to predict real wins over time.

• The Mariners have 23.7 total fWAR to date (14th); they’re projected for 17.2 the rest of the way (7th).
• The Astros have 28.7 total fWAR to date (4th); they’re projected for 16.6 the rest of the way (10th).

The plot below shows where both teams were projected before the season, how they are pacing through 99 games, and where ZiPS and Steamer think they’ll finish at the end of 2025. The teams were assumed equals in Spring Training. The Mariners to-date have played below their preseason projections, while the Astros have played above. The Mariners are expected to get better going forward but still finish about 4 fWAR behind.

The next plot shows how production for either team is distributed among players. The x-axis shows season-to-date fWAR, and the y-axis shows projected rest-of-season fWAR. Players to the right of the line are projected to produce at a slower rate the rest of the way, while players to the left are projected to improve. The Mariners have eight players projected to post at least 1 fWAR the rest of the way; the Astros have five. If you wish the plot were more zoomed in, blame Cal Raleigh, who demands a section unto himself.

I wrote about this in June, when the Mariners fell below .500 and four games back. I noted their playoff odds remained strong overall because the projections still thought they were good — and equals with the Astros. They’ve both gone 20-12 since then, and the Mariners remain four games back.

What the Mariners have done the last few weeks is simply play back to their modest preseason target. They haven’t yet moved their outlook from good to great. That could change if the lineup continues to hit like the best in MLB, as they have since the beginning of June. But at the moment, the Mariners still depend on the Astros not being great, either.

The good news is, that appears to be the case. The Astros have 16 players on the injured list — the most in MLB. They are weak, and they are stumbling. The Mariners are projected to be a game better than the Astros the rest of the way.

The bad news is, playing one game better than the Astros would still leave the Mariners three back at the end of the year. That becomes the number to seek at the trade deadline. The Mariners need to add at least three projected wins more than the Astros before August. They need to fill the rotation, bridge the bullpen and find a third baseman. If they do, they have a strong chance at the AL West. If they don’t, they’ll fight for the wild card.