Trust ranking the Phillies’ bullpen: Installment No. 4

Well, things will look different around these parts soon.

The Phillies will add a reliever, maybe two, before the deadline. They probably need three. But they might take a big swing this year to fill their biggest hole. And hey, José Alvarado will be back soon-ish, temporarily.

For now, below is what the Phillies are working with. There are clocks ticking down and stocks ticking up. Reliable guys and rolls of the dice.

Here’s who you should trust the most (and least) until the bullpen gets a shakeup, whose days might be numbered when it does and who to keep an eye on as the playoff chase ramps up.

Last edition’s rankings are in parentheses.

Tier Five: Here, but for how long?

8 — Joe Ross (7)

For all the chatter about a Max Kepler DFA, Ross might be the first offseason addition to learn that fate. He has a 7.24 ERA since the start of June with nine strikeouts and eight walks in 13 2/3 innings. The Savant page tells the story of his year. It hasn’t been great.

7 — Max Lazar (5)

Lazar has performed well enough since after his season debut, with an ERA under three. But what the Phillies need is swing and miss, and he doesn’t provide that. His whiff rate is subpar and he’s striking out 6.2 per nine.

Tier Four: Trending …

6 — Daniel Robert (NR)

Robert is someone to watch as the second half kicks into full gear. The sample is small, but he’s struck out two batters an inning, and while he’s walking 1.5 a frame, it’s an aberration from his recent strike-throwing history. His four-seam and cutter velocity are up more than a mile per hour from 2024. His leverage has increased each of his last four outings, for good reason.

5 — Seth Johnson (NR)

While not quite the strike-thrower Robert is, the stuff pops, which the Phillies need. His four-seamer averages 97.7 mph and his slider’s got a 31% whiff rate; he hasn’t allowed a hit on 26 sliders plus curveballs. As with Robert, expect more of him in leverage, especially in the days leading up to the deadline as the Phillies scope out what they’ve got in house. There’s a good chance these two leapfrog the next two arms in the next ranking. Let’s just see a tad more.

Tier Three: Heavy reluctance

4 — Jordan Romano (3)

Romano said in San Francisco, per The Athletic, that whenever he starts to get on a roll, a blow-up brings it to a halt. It’s true. He had six straight hitless outings in June, then got tagged for four runs. Two straight scoreless with one hit, then a walk-off three-run insider-the-parker. Romano ranks 174th among relievers in left-on-base percentage at 55. Not among all relievers, of course — just the 174 qualified.

3 — Matt Strahm (4)

It certainly feels like Strahm walks a tightrope every game, which is perhaps why he hasn’t entered with a runner on base in his last 23 appearances. After allowing a run in four of six outings in mid-June, he’s been scoreless in six straight, but with four walks in that span. It’s not comforting to have a first-percentile ground ball rate and the second-highest average launch angle among relievers. It all feels a bit unsustainable.

Tier Two: Guess this is real?

2 — Tanner Banks (2)

Yet, Tanner Banks didn’t feel sustainable earlier in the year, and he’s mostly just kept shoving. He had a hiccup in San Diego but went nine straight without an earned run before that. Granted, eight of 14 inherited runners have scored off Banks this year, but he hasn’t always been thrown into the cleanest of dirty innings — probably because of his walk rate, which, at five free passes in 41 innings, is second among all relievers. He hasn’t walked any of his last 85 (!) batters faced. Need a clutch strikeout? Maybe not your guy. Need someone to limit damage? He’s done that.

Tier One: “Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good“

1 — Orion Kerkering (1)

You’d still like more strikeouts from Kerkering, who’s punching out less than a batter per inning. But in this bullpen, that’s hardly disqualifying, and neither is a 1.48 ERA since the start of May. He’s still walking the yard, but his 98th percentile average exit velocity among relievers is helping him through it. “Dominant” is a stretch, but there’s no reliever you’d rather turn to with the game on the line. Just check back in two weeks.