What Path Should the Guardians Take?

Starting Friday, there are just under two weeks to pick a lane

With the All-Star break behind us, the Guardians will start the last 67 games left in the 2025 season on Friday. How should they approach this stretch?

During the throes of the 10-game losing stretch, I made the argument that the Guardians should not only view 2025 as a season focused on development but also 2026. I also said it probably makes sense to explore trading Steven Kwan now vs. later. I stand by this analysis because I believe the only way the Guardians will solve their offensive struggles is by having some of the hitters they are developing - Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio, Juan Brito, Angel Martinez, CJ Kayfus, Chase DeLauter, George Valera, Travis Bazzana, Angel Genao, Petey Halpin, Kahlil Watson, etc. - get plenty of major league playing time as soon as possible. For example, are the Guardians going to sign Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso, or Cedric Mullins in free agency after this season? Perhaps if Paul Dolan receives a visit from three spirits in November who demand he end his miserly ways and make for Guardians fans to have a merrier Christmas than they have known these many years, but otherwise, I see it as a zero possibility they pay for any of those three players.

I don’t even believe they’ll trade for a big trade piece to plug into the middle of the lineup and there are none that look particularly available. They are either going to figure out their offensive woes (a 2025 team 85 wRC+) with players on hand, or they’re not going to figure it out. And, it’s crucial to understand this point - over the past two decades, if your offense isn’t at LEAST around midpoint in the league, you don’t win a World Series. The Guardians need to figure out how to get their overall offense to be in the 100-105 wRC+ range, overall, or they’re not breaking this title drought. Forgive me for thinking this project will probably take more than what they can pull off this season, so it’s probably best to shift their attention to 2026 and beyond.

However, I do admit that it is possible to focus on development for 2025 and not fall out of the hunt for the third wildcard, especially because the Guardians have the easiest remaining schedule in MLB. That is why, I suspect, Paul Hoynes reported for Cleveland.com that the Guardians are telling teams they aren’t trading Emmanuel Clase. This is the correct thing for Cleveland to say right now, but I suspect the Guardians WOULD trade Clase and they probably would ALSO trade Steven Kwan. However, a trade would only happen now if they got an absolute sweetheart, overpay, once-in-a-lifetime offer. They are in good shape to demand that kind of thing because IF they want to trade Clase or Kwan, the market for either is likely to be similarly good in the offseason. So, for example, they can tell the Tampa Bay Rays if they inquire about Clase that not only would it take top prospects SS Carson Williams and RHP Brody Hopkins but ALSO Brandon Lowe. If the Rays laugh at that, then you just keep Clase and ask for something more reasonable from teams in November if you want to move on from Clase before the volatile bug bites him as it tends to bite all relievers, or if you’re legitimately tired of the way Kwan’s body breaks down mid-year every season and of trying to fit him into a left-field role.

Who WILL the Guardians trade in the coming weeks? I imagine they will explore the markets for right-handed reliever Jakob Junis and first baseman Carlos Santana. I don’t think they’ll be pressing to move Santana, and Junis isn’t a big deal whether he stays or moves. I think they’d be motivated to move both Lane Thomas and Paul Sewald - if either were healthy, and neither are, so I suspect they will both be here in August and perhaps be placed on waivers for contenders to nab if they want at that point.

It’s hard to project a Shane Bieber trade; if the team gets the sense that Bieber is likely to opt-in to 2026 here, they’re more likely to keep him. If he seems likely to opt out if he finishes the season strong, then any potential trade return has to outweigh the value of giving Bieber the qualifying offer and getting a compensation pick when he signs elsewhere PLUS the potential that Bieber helps you earn a home playoff game or two. I could imagine someone like the Cubs risking a pretty great prospect for the potential front-of-rotation value Bieber may provide if he looks good in a couple rehab starts before July 31st, so this may be the most likely of potential trades.

Interestingly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Guardians explore the trade market for a player like Erik Sabrowski. I love Sabrowski, but he has had two Tommy John surgeries and had elbow trouble this season. He has been absolutely dominant since his return and I can imagine a ton of teams salivating over the potential of having him in their bullpen for the rest of this season, despite the risk for the short and long-term. If you can get a prospect you feel has good potential to be an everyday player, trading Sabrowski makes a lot of sense. While that would be a loss to the current team’s ability to compete, it would not doom your chances at a playoff berth, especially given that the Guardians seem to be able to churn out effective relievers at their whim (Matt Krook looking pretty sharp in Columbus, meow?).

I don’t think the Guardians will do a big sell-off and midseason tear-down, nor do I believe they should do so. I do believe they will make sensible subtractions from the roster if the right trade arises, and neither fans nor Guardians’ players should view those as the front office giving up on the current season. I also don’t believe they are going to be aggressive in adding to the current roster because... well... the gamble of trying to bet on making the playoffs this season seems like a poor one, and they haven’t really made that kind of big move since Andrew Miller (when the division title was clearly in sight). They can feel free to surprise me and acquire Marlins’ starter Edward Cabrera or the Angels’ outfielder Taylor Ward, but I don’t know that either player moves and I don’t see the Guardians acquiring either for the reasons I stated above.

I think it makes the most sense for the Guardians to position themselves to give their young players as much playing time as possible over the next 67 games and to make all the reasonable push they can for the third wildcard spot while being opportunistic with pieces like Santana, Junis, Bieber and Sabrowski in the trade market. The rest of the season gives the front office, then, a chance to evaluate where their talent level is likely to be coming into 2026 and to give Jose Ramirez and them boys a chance to make the rest of the season exciting for Guardians’ fans. The odds of pulling it off aren’t great, but the pieces they have to offer in the trade market aren’t great or are complicated for one reason or another. I have called for the Guardians to buy and I’ve called for them to sell, in the past - this year the best position appears to me to be mostly “hold.”