Rays Trade Target: Byron Buxton

The Rays are set to begin their final road trip of the first half in Minnesota on Friday, with an Independence Day matinee against the Twins. The postseason picture is becoming clear, and the Twins seem to be outside of it. On the other hand, the Rays find themselves in a three-team race for the AL East. On Thursday, the Blue Jays overtook the Yankees for sole possession of first place, with the Rays and Yankees now one game back in a tie for second.

Both the Yankees and Blue Jays will add to their rosters before the July 31 trade deadline, no doubt, and will seemingly be in the mix for some of the best talent on the market. If the Rays are serious about making a push for the division, the center fielder they face this weekend should be one of their top targets.

An elite talent

Simply put, Byron Buxton is one of the most talented players in all of baseball. He was arguably the most toolsy player in the 2012 draft, when he went second overall to the Twins, right after the Astros selected Carlos Correa (now Buxton’s teammate) with the first pick.

He plays an incredible center field, and at 31 still ranks in the 100th percentile for sprint speed. He’s slashing .272/.337/.545 with 19 home runs and 15 stolen bases.

While he won’t get the nod as the center field starter in this year’s All-Star game, he’s a shoe-in to make the team for just the second time in his career.

He’s played in parts of 11 seasons, and the only knock on him is his health. Only once has he recorded over 400 plate appearances, when he played in 140 games and won his first Gold Glove in 2017.

Would the Twins consider trading their franchise star?

The Twins are at a crossroads. FanGraphs gives them a 19% chance of making the postseason, while Baseball Reference has their chances at just 4.2%. They’ve made the postseason just once in the last four seasons.

After the 2021 season, Buxton signed a seven-year, $100 million extension with the team. He has 3.5 years left on that deal, which pays him just over $15 million annually. A healthy Buxton is worth $15 million over two months of play in today’s free agent market.

It might be far-fetched to think the Twins would move on from a player who has been with the organization for 13 years and still has over three years left on his team friendly deal. But, if they are looking to kick start a rebuild, they have no players that would bring in a prospect haul like Buxton would.

What will it take?

The decision the Rays face is deciding whether this team is good enough to justify a trade of this magnitude. I imagine the Twins would ask about top prospects like Carson Williams, Brayden Taylor, or Theo Gillen, and a starting pitcher like Taj Bradley. And that might just be a starting point.

For a wild card team, I don’t know if this is the kind of trade you make in July. But if there’s a belief that the AL East race is wide open and you could find yourself in one of the two byes into the ALDS, this might be a splash that Sternberg and the Rays front office are willing to make.

Does this make sense?

From a health standpoint, the Rays are clearly not risk averse. Two of their biggest position player free agent signings ever were Wilson Ramos, who was recovering from a torn ACL, and now Ha-Seong Kim, who is set to make his Rays debut after rehabbing a labrum injury.

Buxton, even with the health concerns, provides an immediate upgrade in center field for the Rays. You can assume that he won’t make 600 appearances a year for the remainder of his contract, but over 3.5 years you really just need him to play 80-100 games a year out in center field and be healthy for September and October to make this worthwhile.

It seems unlikely that the Twins are going to blow it up yet, but if they do, they may find a worthwhile trade partner with the Rays.