It’s time for Alec Zumwalt to go

The Royals offense is failing, and something needs to be done.

The Royals have long been an offensively-challenged club, thanks in part to the stadium they play in. But they have taken their offensive ineptitude to new depths this year. They are dead last in baseball in runs scored per-game at 3.30. They have been shut out ten times this year, tied for the most in baseball. They have scored three runs or fewer in 52 of their 84 games, second-most in baseball behind only the Rockies. Their nine-run outburst against the Dodgers on Saturday was the first time since May 30 they had scored more than four runs in a home game.

The Royals have tried demoting players, cutting players, and bringing players up from the minors. None of it has worked.

The problem is more systemic. That’s why it’s time for hitting coach Alec Zumwalt to go.

I outlined some of the problems with the Royals offense a few weeks ago. They don’t walk. They don’t hit for power. They swing too much, chase too much, and yet, are far too patient on the first pitch. They hit too many flyballs for a team that doesn’t hit the ball hard. They are also terrible at hitting fastballs, which should be the easiest pitch to hit. In short, while Zumwalt has advocated for a strategy of identifying a good pitch to hit and doing damage to it, the Royals have utterly failed.

The success of 2024 may have reassured some in the organization that the offense was moving in the right direction, but it is becoming clear now how much that lineup was powered by a superhero in Bobby Witt Jr. and a lot of smoke and mirrors. The Royals hit .282 as a team with runners in scoring position, second-best in baseball. This year, they are hitting .227 in those situations, underscoring the point that some analytics observers have made for years, that “clutch hitting” is not a sustainable skill.

Certainly more could have been done by management to improve the lineup this off-season. But what will take the Royals to contender status is not free agency, but a hitting development system that can produce cheap, young hitters. Zumwalt says a lot of the right things in regards to analytics and process. But this is the bare minimum required by any MLB coach these days. Being a small market club, the Royals will need to be cutting-edge, the envy of other clubs.

I am always skeptical to assign much credit or blame to the coaching staff for player production. Many players have their own academies that provide instruction in the off-season, with their own private coaches. But the counterpoint to that argument sits in the Royals' dugout with Zumwalt. Pitching coach Brian Sweeney and his staff have dramatically improved Royals' pitching. You can argue that the team has invested in that side of the game through free agents like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, but you can also see promising development in young players like Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, and Noah Cameron.

That kind of development is absent on the hitting side of the ball. Sure, no one expected Zumwalt to help Hunter Renfroe defeat Father Time. But talented young players like Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, and Nick Pratto have failed to develop. When Alec Lewis profiled Zumwalt in 2021 and the work he was doing with the farm system, Royals minor league hitters were among the best in baseball. There should be some talent to work with.

Instead, many Royals hitters have struggled to hit at the Major League level. Even more embarrassing, players the Royals once had like Ryan O’Hearn and Brent Rooker have gone on to other organizations and become All-Star hitters. I don’t necessarily blame the Royals for letting those players go, but why don’t the Royals develop diamonds in the rough like this?

I am not under any illusions that a change at hitting coach can make a significant impact at this point in the season. Kevin Seitzer is not walking through that door - he works for the Mariners. Most likely, the Royals will promote from within - Keoni DeRenne or Drew Saylor would likely take over. Maybe Mike Sweeney takes over - who knows if he’d be any good as a MLB hitting coach?

But it is time for hitters to hear from a new messenger. And its time for the organization to hold itself accountable.

“Baseball is constantly shifting and we have to continue to self-evaluate to make sure we’re giving our players everything they need to be successful at the highest levels of baseball,” said Picollo upon the firing of hitting coach Terry Bradshaw and promotion of Alec Zumwalt in 2022.

“Our results so far haven’t matched what we’re capable of, and we all share accountability in that.”

The results aren’t matching what this team is capable of, and someone needs to be held accountable. No one doubts Alec Zumwalt is smart, capable, and hard-working. Perhaps his message is just what the team needs. But it is clear he is not delivering the results the team needs, and someone needs to be held accountable for the worst offense in baseball. It is time for Alec Zumwalt to go.