Mariners series preview: A struggling offense goes to a pitcher’s park

Good luck hitting at T-Mobile Park!

For a team struggling offensively like the Royals, the last place they want to go is T-Mobile Park in Seattle. It ranks as the hardest park to hit in, according to Park Factors at Statcast. That hasn’t prevented the Mariners from fielding a pretty decent offense - they’re in the middle of baseball in runs scored. But they have a significant home/road split, with the team scoring over a run per game more on the road, while they hit just .221/.300/.370 at home.

Kansas City Royals (39-45) vs. Seattle Mariners (43-40) at T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

Royals: 3.30 runs scored/game (30th in MLB), 3.69 runs allowed/game (3rd)

Mariners: 4.58 runs scored/game (12th), 4.42 runs allowed/game (20th)

The Mariners have hit the seventh-most home runs and have the tenth-best walk rate. They are paced by MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, who became the first catcher ever to hit 30 home runs before the All-Star break. The MLB home run leader is hitting .299/.404/.670 with 10 home runs this month, and the switch-hitter has been equally good from both sides of the plate.

Randy Arozarena has a 42.4 percent hard-hit rate, sixth-best in baseball. Donovan Solano got off to an awful start, but he is red-hot lately, hitting .413/.449/.630 with three home runs in his last 14 games. J.P. Crawford is hitting .305/.399/.399 against right-handers.

Julio Rodríguez has a 50 percent groundball rate, twelfth-highest in baseball, and he swings 57.2 percent of the time, the seventh-highest rate. Mitch Garver is hitting just .140/.246/.200 at home. Jorge Polanco is hitting just .222/.286/296 this month.

The Mariners have the fourth-most steals in baseball with a 78 percent success rate. They have been picked off ten times, fourth-most in baseball. Julio Rodríguez has been outstanding defensively this year, second in all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved. Cal Raleigh has thrown out just 21 percent of base-stealers, but he is one of the best pitch-framers in baseball.

George Kirby was an All-Star in 2023 and was a solid 2 WAR pitcher last year. He missed the first eight weeks of the season with shoulder inflammation. He was hit in the face by a comebacker against the Orioles on June 3, but has a 3.52 ERA over his four starts since then. He throws a 96 mph four-seamer with a 29 percent whiff rate, but opponents are hitting .375 against his slider this year.

Emerson Hancock is a former first-round pick who has made a career high 14 starts this year. He tossed seven shutout innings on June 15 against the Guardians, but followed that up by giving up nine runs in four innings against the Cubs. He has a 5.76 ERA in six home starts, and lefties are hitting .260/.351/.527 against him. He relies heavily on a sinker that generates a 43.5 percent groundball rate.

Logan Gilbert was an All-Star last year, leading the league in innings pitched. He missed seven weeks this year with an elbow injury and has a 5.87 ERA in three games since returning, failing to go as much as six innings in a start. He has a career 5.03 ERA against the Royals in six starts and Salvador Perez is 5-for-14 (.357) against him with two home runs.

Bryan Woo has the fourth-lowest walk rate in baseball and the sixth-highest pop-up rate. His 2.91 ERA over the last two years is twelfth-best among pitchers with at least 200 innings pitched. He had nine strikeouts each in his last two starts, and has gone at least six innings in every start this year. He throws a 95 mph fastball that opponents are hitting just .163 against with a 33 percent whiff rate.

The Mariners have a solid bullpen, with an ERA of 3.68 and the tenth-best strikeout rate. All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz has the third-lowest ERA among relievers, striking out a third of batters he has faced. He has blown five saves already this year, while converting 18. Former Royals reliever Gabe Speier is allowing lefties to hit just .200/.241/.327 against him. Matt Brash has a 61.5 percent groundball rate.

Perhaps playing in a pitcher’s park will neutralize both lineups and drag the Mariners down to the Royals’ level of offensive production. The Royals dropped two of three in Seattle last year, splitting the overall season series. If the Royals want to turn their season around, this road trip is the time to do it.