Phillies bullpen trust ranking: Installment No. 3

It’s easy to wave your hand at the Phillies’ current bullpen configuration and dismiss it like nothing really matters yet. The October relief corps might very well be headlined by a righty currently outside the organization, or a lefty currently in the starting rotation, or both.

But there are still 31 games to go until the July 31 trade deadline, and those 31 games matter not just for the obvious reasons — nine are against the Padres or Giants, with whom the Phillies could be battling for postseason positioning — but also to determine where exactly the weaknesses are, how they need to address them and who they can trust.

So here’s who they can trust the most right now, from the top of the food chain to the first one out the door. This is the third trust ranking of the Phillies’ 2025 bullpen, and it will look very different from the next — just as No. 1 and No. 2 look very different from this one.

Last edition’s rankings are in parentheses.

8 — Michael Mercado (NR)

Mercado was Carlos Hernández’s replacement. He’s appeared thrice: one scoreless inning, a two-run, four-hit outing against the Marlins and Saturday’s three-run day against the Mets. He had a 5.31 ERA at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

7 — Joe Ross (6)

Ross has been a disappointing free-agent addition so far in three-ish months as a Phillie. It’s been more of the same recently: He has an 8.00 ERA in June with six walks and 10 hits in nine innings. Opponents are teeing off on his curveball and slider: His horizontal break on each is down from last year; the run value on his breaking stuff ranks in the bottom 10% league wide.

6 — Taijuan Walker (NR)

The Phillies hoped Walker’s stuff would tick up in the bullpen. It has — by less than a mile per hour on his cutter and overall fastballs. He has a 7.11 ERA in June, including three homers in two innings against the Mets this weekend. He’s still adjusting to the new bullpen routine — Friday and Saturday was his first back-to-back — and maybe things look better once he does. But he’s got a long way to go.

5 — Max Lazar (5)

Lazar has pitched to a 2.45 ERA across the last seven of his eight appearances this year, though the last six have all come in extremely low leverage situations. Maybe he pitches his way into more important opportunities, though he doesn’t possess enough swing-and-miss — just 8.6 K/9 with Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia this year — to create too much optimism. Still, a fine piece in a thin group.

4 — Matt Strahm (3)

Strahm continues to be a conundrum. He’s still in the 99th percentile in chase rate this year with good strikeout and walk numbers, but while hitters are chasing, they’re not whiffing (28th percentile) and they are making hard contact (24th). Strahm’s 8.9 hits per nine this year are the most he’s allowed since 2019. He’s allowed a run in three of his last four appearances and would’ve blown a three-run lead in Miami if not for the defensive prowess of one Nick Castellanos.

3 — Jordan Romano (1)

Romano cooled in early June, allowing a run in each of his first three appearances to start the month — but then bounced back with four straight hitless innings (including one that stranded a zombie runner). Romano has had some fluky outings ever since he turned a corner in late April, and while you can’t excuse every bloop hit ever, he has struck out 13.2 batters per nine dating back to the Wrigley Field save that got him going. There’ll be some who can’t shake the brutal first impression Romano made in April, but he’s a different — not lockdown, but better — pitcher.

2 — Tanner Banks (4)

Banks has also cooled off a tad, allowing three earned runs and seven hits in 7 2/3 innings while striking out just three. But a lot of that damage came in one Toronto outing, and what the surprisingly reliable lefty is still limiting is walks: He hasn’t issued any in his last 13 appearances. Avoid free passes and hard contact (91st percentile in average exit velocity this year), and you’ll fare alright. Lefties have a .521 OPS against him this year.

1 — Orion Kerkering (2)

Kerkering can walk batters with the best of them, has average strikeout numbers and yet has allowed one earned run in 19 innings since the start of May. You’d love more swing and miss, but a 99th-percentile average exit velocity and 97th-percentile hard-hit rate will play.

Kerkering has flipped his pitch usage almost on its head from April to June — he threw 60% sweepers and 40% fastballs in April; it’s 43% sweepers and 57% fastballs in June — and it’s clear he’s tougher to square up because of it. He’s the runaway top dog in the Phillies’ bullpen, and it’s hard to see anyone (internal) taking that spot from him anytime soon.