Series Preview: Mets set to face Braves for first time in 2025

The ebbs and flows of the 2025 MLB season continue for the New York Mets!

After a great stretch of baseball over the past few weeks, New York ran into plenty of struggles over the weekend against the Tampa Bay Rays. Outside of the interleague opponent continuing their blazing hot streak with some great play, the Mets made things much harder on themselves. The pitching, whether it was the bullpen or the starters, struggled with command and putting away opposing batters. The hitters struggled to drive runners in when they were in scoring position on multiple occasions. And worst of all, the team had multiple miscues in the field, allowing Tampa to break the floodgates open.

The great thing about the weekend, though, is that the sweep was only three games. New York is still one of the best teams in the National League. They have a lineup that is starting to hit its stride, has multiple pitchers with positive track records, and a bullpen that has bounced back when faced with adversity before.

However, New York has to ensure that their struggles stay contained to this past weekend, especially considering their upcoming schedule.

Starting on Tuesday, the Mets will have ten straight games against the Braves and Phillies. Seven of those games will be against the Braves, while three will be against Philadelphia.

Up first in this gauntlet are the Braves. A bitter rival of the Mets, Atlanta has had its fair struggles as a team in 2025.  They are 31-39, marked by inconsistent play from their lineup and bullpen. However, the Braves still have a massive amount of talent and will likely see this week as a starting point to firmly get back into the playoff picture.

New York will have their work cut out for itself on the road in a place that has given them plenty of trouble in the past. And, as always, we have you fully covered with the pitching matchups, storyline, and prediction for this critical series of baseball. Without further ado, it is time to dive into another series preview!

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday: David Peterson (5-2, 2.49 ERA) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (5-4, 3.11 ERA)

• In light of their recent pitching struggles, the Mets need one of their standouts to right the ship. Luckily for New York, they have just the right pitcher on the mound Tuesday night. Continuing a great 2025 season, David Peterson twirled a complete game shutout against the Washington Nationals on 6/11. He had six strikeouts and only allowed six hits, lowering his ERA to 2.49. His arsenal has been impressive(overall pitching run value of 10), he is not walking many batters, and is doing a great job of avoiding barrels on a consistent basis. There is no evidence to suggest that Peterson is slowing down; in fact, he may just be hitting his stride as a pitcher. As a result, I expect Peterson to set a great tone for the Mets in the first game of the series. 
• On the other side of things is a budding ace in Spencer Schwellenbach. The Braves’ young ace has a 3.11 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 89.2 innings pitched up to this point. He has a 23.5 % strikeout rate, a fastball that averages 96.8 miles per hour, and an impressive 3.9 walk rate. Additionally, his splitter has been deadly this season, generating  24 strikeouts and a 37.6% whiff rate. In short, the Mets need to be ready to face one of the best pitchers in the National League on Tuesday and will need to execute in key situations to get out with a win. 

Wednesday: Paul Blackburn (0-0, 6.75 ERA) vs  Chris Sale (4-4, 2.79 ERA)

• In light of the Kodai Senga injury, the Mets’ pitching depth is set to be immediately tested when Paul Blackburn takes the mound. The former Athletic has had a case of riding the roller coaster in 2025 up to this point. On the positive side of things, Blackburn was awesome in the only game he started this season. Facing the deadly Dodgers offense, Blackburn twirled five innings of shutout baseball and struck out three batters. On the bad side of things, Blackburn has been a disaster out of the bullpen. In his most recent outing against the Rays, the pitcher got tattooed for four runs while only recording one out. Blackburn, while he does not qualify for rankings, has seen success with his slider and curveball. He is also avoiding barrels and walking batters while on the mound. Not every pitcher is made to be a bullpen arm; if Blackburn succeeds on Wednesday, he can show the Mets that he brings more to the table out of the rotation.
• For the Braves, Chris Sale has seemingly found the fountain of youth after a poor start to the season. In his last three starts, Sale has not given up more than one run and has struck out at least eight batters. While Sale’s fastball has lost some juice, his slider has leveled up from the pitcher going to a complete sidearm delivery. The future HOF pitcher has a run value of 13(!!) for the pitch and has a strikeout rate of 45.0% when deploying it. Opposing batters are also hitting .153 off the pitch. Just like Tuesday’s game, the Mets will have to be locked in for the battle against Sale.

Thursday: Clay Holmes (7-3, 2.87 ERA)  vs. Spencer Strider (1-5, 4.35 ERA)

• In game three of this series, the Mets are deploying one of their other standouts in Holmes. The former Yankee had another solid start against the Rays last week, going five innings while striking out three batters and walking two. Holmes, using his variety of pitches, has consistently found ways to build length in his starts while still getting strikeouts. His command has been much better as of late, as he has walked fewer than three batters in his last three starts. If he can avoid his signature home run allowed in what seems like every start, Holmes could easily elevate himself to a new level. And against an Atlanta lineup filled with power, Holmes is in a great position to make another statement. 
• To wrap up the series, the Braves will deploy what has been a shaky version of Spencer Strider. Holding an ERA over 4.00 on the season, Strider has seen his average fastball velocity drop by over a mile per hour. He is getting squared up more consistently, evidenced by his 42.1 hard hit rate and 11.8 barrel rate. This has shown up in the box score, too; Strider has allowed three runs or more in two of his last four starts. However, Strider still has the swing-and-miss ability in his arsenal. The Braves’ standout has a 33.1 whiff rate, a 28.7 strikeout rate, and is coming off a start where he fanned 13 Colorado Rockies over six innings. Strider is more vulnerable than in past years, but he still presents a fun challenge for the Mets to close out this three-game set. 

The Main Headline

For this week’s series, the main headline is simple, yet very important. 

The Mets need to determine what they truly have in their starting rotation, specifically as it relates to the backend of it.

I would go out on a limb and say Peterson and Holmes, alongside a healthy Kodai Senga, are the locks to remain in the 2025 rotation. Whether you look at the surface or in depth at their season, Holmes and Peterson are pitching very sustainably. They have great stuff, can provide length in starts, and have built track records of getting batters out consistently.

Outside of those two players, though, some important questions start to arise for the other members of the rotation.

Tylor Megill has some of the best natural pitching ability in the entire organization, ranging from his spin rate to his velocity. However, he lets little mistakes destroy entire starts and has a tendency to completely lose the strike zone. Griffin Canning has imploded in his most recent starts after an amazing start to the season. Not only has his command completely fallen off a cliff, but he has lost the command that made him a great asset to New York early in the season. Blackburn has looked like a completely different pitcher out of the bullpen, failing to get consistent outs for the Mets. However, the Senga injury poses the question of how he will perform as a starter once again.

In a sense, this week is the first taste of high-stakes baseball for the Mets in the 2025 season. How they fare in this ten-game stretch could not only impact where they fall in the NL East race, but also the overall NL playoff picture. And for New York to succeed, they need productive pitching.

If players like Megill and Canning step up, the Mets will likely win more games than they lose in this stretch, as the offense is truly starting to come alive. If they falter, though, they could be heading to the bullpen or off the Mets’ overall roster. Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are on their way back, and prospects like Jonah Tong and Nolan McLean are not far behind. And that does not even include the pieces New York could add at the trade deadline.

I have talked about this aspect of the season extensively over the past few weeks. Last week’s focus was the offense, and I have not lost sight of that. New York, specifically with their younger players and bottom of the order hitters, will need to see who rises to the occasion and produces at a level suitable for a contender.

I would argue, though, that the pitching side of things is more important. Pressure tends to make diamonds, and this stretch of games is the most pressure the Mets have had all season. How their pitching fares over this series will cause a cascading effect for the rest of the season, making it my main headline by a wide margin.

Prediction

In their series against the Braves, I see the Mets taking two of three games. David Peterson will go seven innings and earn the win in his start, while Juan Soto and Pete Alonso will go yard once again. I also see Brett Baty contributing three RBI over the course of the series and Luis Torrens having three hits. 

After this series, I have the Mets at 47-28 heading into a crucial weekend series with the Philadelphia Phillies.

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